Are Quarterbacks Worth the Money?
Here are 2 future Hall of Fame NFL Quarterbacks. Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers.
These two Quarterbacks have many glaring similarities. Both QBs were their team’s franchise QB for a decade plus (Russ for the Seahawks for 10 years, Rodgers for the Packers for 18), both QBs are thought to have carried their teams on their back despite the lack of talent around them, both QBs have run into their share of controversy off the field, and both QBs have 1 Super Bowl ring. What stands out to me is that both of their Super Bowl wins occurred within their first three NFL seasons, while they were still on their rookie contract.
History has shown that when a team’s Quarterback makes over 13% of the team’s cap, their odds for a Super Bowl victory become slim to none. Before the 2022 NFL season, there had never been a team that won a Super Bowl when paying their QB over 13% of their cap. Enter the Kansas City Chiefs. After the Chiefs' 2019 Super Bowl victory over the 49ers, the Chiefs knew they had a generational Quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and that he would have to be paid like never before. Therefore, they signed him to a record-breaking 10-year 477 million dollar contract, with 26 million dollars in bonuses. During the 2 seasons before his new contract kicked in, Mahomes and the Chiefs fell short of the chip in both years, with a Super Bowl loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020 and an AFC Championship loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021. Before the 2022 NFL season, once the money from Mahomes’ record-breaking contract kicked in, the Chiefs lost superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill due to salary reasons. It looked like Mahomes’ contract would bite the Chiefs. After 2 seasons of shortcomings, how would Mahomes win another Super Bowl having now lost his top receiver?
Not only would the Chiefs win the Super Bowl in 2022 right after losing Tyreek Hill, they would repeat this feat in 2023.
While it may seem like Mahomes’ Super Bowl victories show that a team can win a Super Bowl when paying their QB a hefty sum of money, of course, there are never any absolutes, and Mahomes and the Chiefs should be considered an exception. Name any other Quarterback who could’ve led a receiving core of Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Kadarius Toney to a Super Bowl victory (of course he had Kelce as well).
Currently, many elite Quarterbacks on big contracts are making under 13% of their team's cap for this upcoming 2024 NFL season. This list includes guys like Josh Allen (11.9% cap), Lamar Jackson (12.8% cap), Joe Burrow (11.2% cap), and Justin Herbert (7.4% cap). However, all of these contracts are backloaded, meaning the team pays them less currently to win now and then pays them more in the later years of their contract. All of these Quarterbacks will make well over 13% of their team’s cap after the 2024 NFL season. This means that after this season, teams that defered money will suffer the effects of giving their Quarterback a big contract.
This season, the Cleveland Browns are an example of a team that we will see suffer from backloading a contract to win now. The Browns traded for and signed Deshaun Watson to a 5-year 230 million dollar fully guaranteed contract. The Browns gave Watson a base salary of $1 million his first season to minimize the money he would lose from his suspension, and only paid him 7.6% of the team’s cap in 2023 to make 2023 the year the Browns go all in for the Lombardi Trophy. The Browns would fall short in 2023 with a loss to the Texans in the Divisional round with Deshaun Watson inactive due to a shoulder injury, and they now owe Watson around a quarter of the team’s cap for the next 3 seasons of his contract. This means that the Browns will likely not be serious contenders for the next 3 years, and will continue to be a poverty franchise for the foreseeable future.
So if paying a QB big money strips a team of their chances to win a Super Bowl unless they have Mahomes, what should a team do? Should they just not pay their elite Quarterback?
The 2023 NFL season featured many major injuries to key Quarterbacks. These Quarterbacks include Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson. These injuries gave us a look at how their backups responded when given the call.
The Bengals and Joe Burrow struggled early, and as Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense started to click, Burrow would go down with a season-ending wrist injury. Browning would step in and dominate, with his only poor performance being against the Steelers. Overall, Browning had a better record, higher completion percentage, passer rating, and QB rating than Burrow on the season. However, Browning’s efforts were not enough, as the Bengals would fall short of the postseason.
Despite the Browns’ early success, Deshaun Watson struggled and would have a disappointing campaign that would come to an end after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury against the Baltimore Ravens. The Browns would sign Joe Flacco off the couch, and after an injury to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Flacco would start and completely transform a Browns offense that looked stagnant. Flacco would average 323.2 Passing Yards Per Game on the season and win Comeback Player Of The Year. The Browns would fall to the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, putting an end to the Browns’ Cinderella season.
While Browning and Flacco were unable to bring their teams all the way, history has shown that a backup QB’s success is not just limited to the regular season. In the history of the NFL, 7 backup QBs have won a Super Bowl. Since 1999, 4 backup Quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl. During the 1999 NFL season, Trent Green suffered a season-ending knee injury and was replaced by undrafted free agent Kurt Warner. Warner would lead the Rams to a Super Bowl victory that season and lead what was to be known as “The Greatest Show on Turf”. During the 2000 season, Ravens starting QB Tony Banks would be benched in favor of backup QB Trent Dilfer. The Ravens would go on to win the Super Bowl that season with Trent Dilfer under center. During the 2001 NFL season, Drew Bledsoe suffered a gruesome chest injury, and 6th-round backup QB Tom Brady stepped into his place. Brady would lead the Patriots to a Super Bowl victory that season and go on to lead the greatest dynasty in NFL history. Most recently, during the 2017 NFL season, the Eagles cruised along being led by MVP favorite Carson Wentz. Wentz would suffer a season-ending ACL tear. Throughout the postseason, backup QB Nick Foles would lead the Eagles on a Cinderella run and cap it off with a Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots.
The 2023 NFL season showed us that in certain systems, a backup QB signed off the streets can match or even outperform the starter who is getting paid drastically more. A lot of how a Quarterback performs is based on the weapons they are surrounded with. With lesser weapons or a non-elite defense around a QB, the chance for a team to win a Super Bowl decreases drastically. So what does this tell us about whether or not teams should pay their elite Quarterback?
While Quarterbacks making the minimum signed off the streets have had success in favorable systems, it may not always be ideal to rely on them to win a Super Bowl. That is why in my opinion, teams should attempt to reset the rookie scale contract at the QB position whenever possible. The Bears reset the rookie scale contract at their QB position this offseason, moving on from Justin Fields and replacing him with rookie generational sensation Caleb Williams. The Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. #8 overall, despite having signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year 180 million dollar contract this offseason. This likely means Cousins will only play 1 or 2 seasons before the Falcons move on from him, either trading or cutting him, and let Penix take the reigns for the 2026 NFL season once Cousins’ guaranteed money left is only $10 million. Resetting the rookie scale contract at QB with a rookie QB you can trust to lead your franchise is the only reliable way to maintain the talent around a QB while having a QB you feel can get the job done.
And if your favorite team decided to pay their Quarterback over 13% of their cap and your favorite team is not the Chiefs, your favorite team will probably not win the Super Bowl.
