Probable Disgrunteled Wide Receiver Holdouts and Possible Solutions
One year ago, running back holdouts were the talk of the offseason. This year, disgruntled players have shifted to a new position — wide receivers.
New Market for Receivers
NFL salaries seemingly increase marginally each year. However, with the NFL salary cap taking a massive increase of 13.6%, players’ salary demands have risen drastically. The new market for receivers was kicked off by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who received a 4-year, $120 million contract extension. Justin Jefferson would follow, with a record-setting 4-year $140 million contract extension. Wide receiver twos are getting paid as well, with Jaylen Waddle commanding 3 years $85 million, and Devonta Smith securing 3 years $75 million. This has led to contract disputes among elite wide receivers and owners who are reluctant to give them a bag.
Which receivers will likely hold out of camp?
As it stands, there are currently 3 receivers who teams fear will hold out of camp, or they may show up to camp to avoid fines, but not participate in drills. These 3 receivers are CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Brandon Aiyuk. These 3 receivers are vital to their teams’ offense, being elite #1 options. However, each receiver may have different outcomes in their negotiations.
CeeDee Lamb
In 2023, CeeDee Lamb proved to be a top 3 receiver in the NFL, amassing 1862 total scrimmage yards along with 14 scrimmage touchdowns. The Cowboys’ offense was heavily dependent on Lamb, with Lamb receiving a 30.3% target share. Lamb and the Cowboys have been at a standstill in contract negotiations, with Jerry Jones being reluctant to pay Lamb $35 million annually. However, with the loss of Tony Pollard this offseason along with many key pieces to their offensive line, the Cowboys will rely heavily on the passing attack. This means their offense will run through Lamb once again, and Jones will undoubtedly pay up and give Lamb a contract similar to Justin Jefferson.
Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper has been the epitome of consistency. Cooper has amassed 1,000 receiving yards in 7 of his 9 seasons in the NFL. This past season, Cooper retained his elite status, obtaining 1,250 receiving yards on the year, and having a monster 265-yard & 2 TD game against the Texans. This offseason, the Browns acquired receiver Jerry Jeudy in a trade, and extended him for 3 years $52 million. With the acquisition of Jeudy, it looked as if the Browns would be content with letting Cooper walk after this season. However, Cooper does not want to let that happen. The past year, Cooper dealt with a multitude of injuries, leaving multiple games early, and missing the last 2 weeks of the season with a heel injury. We have seen this play out before with the Browns 2 seasons ago, with the Browns being unwilling to extend running back Kareem Hunt amid a contract dispute, coming off an injury-riddled season in 2021. Hunt would go on to play out his final season on his contract. We could very well see this occur with Amari Cooper. Going into his age-30 season, Cooper is not getting any younger, and his injury issues may only worsen. Because of this, Cooper wants an extension now. However, if Cooper does not get extended, he will likely play out his contract, as sitting out would cost Cooper $20 million. Additionally, a 31-year-old receiver who missed the entire 2024 NFL season won’t look appealing to teams. Reports say the Browns are looking to reach an agreement to extend Cooper, so an extension is the most likely solution. However, it is very possible Cooper will play out his contract without an extension as well.
Brandon Aiyuk
The Brandon Aiyuk saga has been the main storyline of the offseason. Coming off a career year of 1,342 receiving yards on 17.9 Yards Per Reception, Aiyuk is looking to get his bag. While it would seem almost certain that Aiyuk would stay a Niner, with the Niners being fresh off a Super Bowl loss, and Aiyuk asking for a reasonable $28 million annually, the Niners have been unwilling to budge. With a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs, and the Niners barely getting past the Packers and Lions to reach the big game, the Niners cannot afford to move backward. A $28 million annual salary would be on par with the Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle. Aiyuk surely deserves the amount the Dolphins were willing to dish to Waddle. By 2026, Deebo Samuel will be off the books, so Aiyuk’s contract demands should not be an issue. If the Niners were forced to decide between Deebo or Aiyuk, Aiyuk should be the easy choice. Deebo is well older with a history of injuries. The most probable solution will be for the Niners to cede to Aiyuk’s contract request. However, the fact that the Niners have been unable to agree to Aiyuk’s reasonable contract request up to this point is a cause for concern, and leaves the door open for a potential trade.
Conclusion
Among all the receivers who will likely hold out of training camp or only show up to avoid fines, CeeDee Lamb seems to be the only receiver guaranteed to receive his asking. And Aiyuk is the only receiver with a possibility of being moved elsewhere. However, it is likely all 3 of these receivers will reach an agreement to extensions with their respective teams before the season, though outside of Lamb, it is not a guarantee.
