The NFL Running Back Issue (And why there will not be a resolution)
The running back position has a HUGE problem… and there looks to be no solution.
Currently, there stands many NFL running backs disgruntled about their contract situation. Running backs feel that with what they produce for a team and the danger of their position, they deserve higher pay and longer contracts. Top receivers make around 25 million a year on multi-year contracts, while top running backs receive 10 million a year on short-term deals. Running backs receive triple the touches wide receivers get, thus taking 3 times the hits. This results in higher injury risk and shorter careers for running backs. For these reasons, running backs feel they should be paid more. However, the danger of the running back position is one of the reasons why many owners refuse to pay running backs more and are unwilling to offer longer contracts.
Running backs receiving large multi-year contracts was once commonplace. 2018 had top running back Todd Gurley receiving a 4-year 57 million dollar contract with 45 million guaranteed and David Johnson earning a 3-year 39 million dollar contract with 32 million guaranteed. During 2019, Le’Veon Bell earned a 4-year 52 million dollar contract with 35 million guaranteed, while Ezekiel Elliot received a 6-year 90 million dollar contract with 50 million guaranteed, giving Ezekiel Elliot the most guaranteed money for a running back in NFL history. 2020 was the year many of the league's top running backs ate, with McCaffrey getting 4 years 64 million with 36 guaranteed, Alvin Kamara receiving 5 years 75 million with 34 million guaranteed, and Derrick Henry receiving 4 years 50 million with 25 million guaranteed.
However, it did not take long for owners who handed out these contracts to have buyer's remorse, and for all owners to learn from their mistakes. Todd Gurley would have one all-pro season before contracting knee arthritis, and the Rams would cut him after only two seasons. After Le’Veon Bell signed with the Jets, he would appear to have been worn down from receiving 1,541 touches with the Steelers, and he would be cut after two seasons as well. The Cowboys spent the past 3 seasons utilizing a washed-up Ezekiel Elliott as the RB1 over a young and spring Tony Pollard before eventually cutting ties with Zeke this offseason. Alvin Kamara has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over the last two years and looks to be a shadow of his former self. David Johnson was a shell of his all-pro 2016 self for his 2 seasons in Arizona after signing the contract, before being traded to the Houston Texans in a deal involving DeAndre Hopkins. Christian McCaffrey spent his first two seasons after signing the deal living on IR, before finally having a healthy and productive 2022 season. It is yet to be seen if McCaffrey can repeat this feat for the 2023 NFL season. Even Derrick Henry, who has been one of the most productive running backs in the league since signing his large contract, missed the 2nd half of the 2021 NFL season with a Jones fracture, and had a drastic decrease in yards per carry, going from 5.4 y/c in 2020 to 4.4 y/c in 2022. With Henry going into his age 29 season, it is likely his best days are behind him.
The only running backs since 2018 who have played up to their large contracts are Aaron Jones (4 years 48 million, 13 million guaranteed) and Nick Chubb (3 years 36.6 million, 20 million guaranteed). However, history has shown that running backs take a huge hit in productivity after amassing 1,000 carries. This means that Jones and Chubb will likely have underwhelming 2023 seasons.
Injuries and drops in production are not the only reasons why owners are unwilling to hand out long-term contracts to running backs. Time and time again we see a star running back get injured or suspended, and their replacement matches or even outplays them. Take D’Ernest Johnson for example. During the 2021 NFL season, in the three games Johnson took over the Brown’s backfield while Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were injured, Johnson averaged 153 scrimmage yards per game on 5.6 y/c. That season, Nick Chubb averaged 102 scrimmage yards a game on 5.5 y/c. It’s to be noted that D’Ernest Johnson didn’t have to split carries with Kareem Hunt and it was only a three-game sample, but it nonetheless shows the replaceability of the running back position.
We also see late-round picks or undrafted players outperforming the RB1. We saw that happen this past season with Jaylen Warren, who outplayed Najee Harris in every aspect of the game. Warren, an undrafted free agent, was a more efficient runner, a better pass blocker, and a better pass-catching back than first-round pick Najee Harris.
Despite the importance of the running back position, the volatility of the position is what makes owners reluctant to hand out long-term deals. The constant injuries, rapid declines, and replaceability of running backs currently haunt the position and prevent them from getting paid. These issues are an unavoidable aspect of being a running back, and there looks to be no resolution to this problem.
