Daisuke Matsuzaka: the $100 Million Mystery Gyroballer
Daisuke Matsuzaka was an eminent Japanese pitcher who dominated the NPB before transitioning to the MLB, similar to players like Hideo Nomo and Shohei Ohtani. However, Matsuzaka never lived up to the hype surrounding the six-year, $52 million contract he signed with the Boston Red Sox. Still, his ability to play in the MLB showcases the significance of Hideo Nomo since he paved the way for NPB to implement a posting system, which Matsuzaka used to get to the MLB. The deal occurred in 2007, and the Red Sox thought they were getting an ace, but injuries would eventually derail his career.
Daisuke Matsuzaka was quite successful in high school, throwing 398 pitches in back-to-back appearances and a no-hitter to win the national high school title. Consequently, scouts were interested, and he was selected with the first pick in the 1999 draft by the Seibu Lions, winning Rookie of the Year the same year. Two years later, He also won the Eiji Sawamura Award, the NPB equivalent of the Cy Young Award. By 2006, he was an NPB superstar and helped Team Japan win the inaugural World Baseball Classic title. Therefore, his peak came at the right time since he would soon declare he wanted to play overseas in the MLB.
As a result, the Lions permitted him to play overseas by becoming an MLB free agent through the posting system, where teams would bid for his rights, which then would be paid to the Lions. Afterward, the team would still have to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka. Ultimately, the Red Sox won the sweepstakes with a $51 million bid for his rights and a six-year, $52 million contract, totaling $103 million for Matsuzaka. The price inflated expectations for Matsuzaka, who people believed threw a unique “gyroball” that was difficult for batters to hit. However, people have claimed that the pitch was a myth, and Matsuzaka said it was just a cutting fastball or sinker.
Matsuzaka pitched like an ace in his first two seasons, breaking the rookie strikeout record for the Red Sox and helping the team win the World Series the following year, becoming the first Japanese pitcher to start and win a World Series game. Unfortunately, Matsuzaka failed to put up an ERA under 4.69 again in his MLB career, prompting the Red Sox to let him become a free agent after his contract ended in 2012.
Intriguingly, sabermetrics could have been utilized to predict that Matsuzaka would not perform well after his 2007 season. FIP, or fielding-independent-pitching, is a statistic that uses the three true outcomes: walks, strikeouts, and home runs to help predict a pitcher’s future performance. During the 2007 season, Matsuzaka’s ERA dropped by 1.50, a significant decrease from his rookie season, but his FIP only slightly dipped. Therefore, Matsuzaka had an extreme amount of luck that would not last after the season ended.
Still, injuries also ruined Matsuzaka’s career, and he was never the same pitcher. However, Matsuzaka would return to Japan for another seven years, retiring with the Seibu Lions in 2021, ending a spectacular 23-year career that excited fans worldwide. Yet, Matsuzaka’s story highlights how the overuse of pitchers can lead to significant injuries, a current problem in the MLB. Also, his dramatic downfall from the 2007 to 2008 season illustrates the importance of sabermetrics in estimating future player performance, helping teams construct competitive rosters. In conclusion, Matsuzaka had a fantastic career, but traditional Japanese beliefs that overworked pitchers led to career-ending injuries and his extreme luck in 2007 downplayed his underperforming sabermetric statistics, highlighting their importance in predicting future performance.
