Spiraling Nate Silver gives Donald Trump 49% chance to win World Series
NEW YORK — Friends of Nate Silver’s say they are growing increasingly worried that the stress and unpredictability of the 2016 election have broken the statistician — the latest example coming today when Silver posted a rambling item on his FiveThirtyEight site declaring Donald Trump as the favorite for the World Series over the Chicago Cubs.
“He needs help. It’s getting worse every day,” said a longtime associate. “He used to base everything in facts and data, but now he’s just throwing out random opinions that swing wildly in every direction with a number tacked to them to make them look data-based. Trump may not become president and ruin America, but he has already ruined Nate Silver.”
While difficult to follow Silver’s reasoning in his column giving Trump the highest probability of winning this year’s World Series, he declared “our polls-only model shows Trump getting more traction than expected compared to the baseball teams, although that may be influenced by hardcore Trump voters sabotaging the polls. Donald Trump is not a baseball team, but he cannot be completely discounted in his crazy election/baseball season. Also, he has not struck out all season which should mean he should put the ball in play a lot regardless of the pitcher.”
A call was placed to FiveThirtyEight offices to get clarification on Silver’s odd projection, but he was not available to speak.
“Unfortunately, Mr. Silver isn’t here right now,” said a receptionist. “He’s half-clothed and ranting on a corner in Times Square again about the probability of a spaceship coming to zap out all our brains. I’ll leave him a message, though.”
Trump seized on the projection at a rally stop today.
“Did you see this latest poll?” Trump beamed to his followers. “They have me winning the World Series. That’s great. I’m going to win so big. It’s going to be a sweep and it will be the best World Series ever. I guarantee you that.”