Four Potential NBA Draft Second-Round Sleepers
The tools at Pivot Analysis show why Paul Reed, Malachi Flynn, Killian Tillie, and Desmond Bane are worth a late look…
THE NBA IS A STAR-DRIVEN LEAGUE, but even the best stars can’t win games on their own. NBA Draft hype focuses on the top of the draft, and rightfully so, but the draft is far more than just a few stars. The best teams in the NBA don’t typically pick at the top of the draft, after all. The league’s contenders are often drafting at the end of the first round or panning for gold in the second, looking for sleeper prospects to come in and fill a role.
Pivot Analysis is the premier provider of basketball analytical tools and data services on leagues other than the NBA. Using some of the tools there, we can shine a light on a quartet of late first- or second-round sleepers who look ready to step up and fill a role in the NBA.
Last week, we used those tools to elucidate the skills of Grant Riller, a dynamic point guard out of Charleston whose elite burst and rim attacking make him one of the top sleepers in the draft. Today we’ll dip our toes in the water on four more sleepers: DePaul PF Paul Reed, San Diego State PG Malachi Flynn, Gonzaga PF Killian Tillie, and TCU SG Desmond Bane.
PF Paul Reed, DePaul
Paul Reed is a long, mean, weakside rim protector and defensive playmaker. Reed stands 6'9 with a 7'2 wingspan and averaged 2.6 blocks and 1.9 steals a game for DePaul. Reed was the best player on the Blue Demons by far, and few players had more ghastly on/off splits.
With Reed on the court, DePaul was a pretty solid team. They even made it into the top 25 early in the season when Reed was at his best. Then Reed got banged up, conference play started, Reed missed a few games, and the wheels fell off entirely. When Paul Reed wasn’t on the court for the Blue Demons, the team literally fell apart without him:
That’s a swing of over +27 Net Rating per 100 possessions for Paul Reed. Put another way, Reed was worth more than a full point extra every four times DePaul went up and down the court with him out there. When he left, the offensive rating plummeted from 107 to 90 while the defense fell apart, from 101 to 112. And don’t forget, Reed wasn’t even supposed to be the star of this team — Romeo Weems was the #53 RSCI recruit but struggled through a rough freshman year, leaving Reed to carry the Blue Demons.
Reed made a serious impact on both ends for DePaul, but he should be especially impactful on the defensive end in the NBA. Take a look at DePaul’s Four Factors defensively with Reed on the court:
The EFG% leaps out. DePaul opponents shot over 7% worse effective field goal percentage with Reed out there on defense, and nearly 7% true shooting as well. The offense was 6% EFG better with Reed out there, so that’s a net of +13% EFG with Reed.
Notice all the green on that bottom line, especially in contrast with the previous years. Reed took a serious step forward this year. DePaul was better on defense at every level with Reed. They also allowed fewer assisted buckets. Reed wasn’t just blocking shots. He was taking away some looks completely and affecting many others.
Using the Pivot Analysis database, we can find NBA player comps for draft prospects with a similar size and defensive profile as Reed. The names are a who’s who of no-name NBA weakside defenders and playmakers:
- Andre Roberson
- Chris Boucher
- D.J. Stephens
- Gary Clark
- Kyle O’Quinn
There are no stars on that list. Just a whole lot of really good defense and guys that stuck around the league a long time because their defense was always valuable. Paul Reed will stick around, too.
PG Malachi Flynn, San Diego State
Flynn is beginning to get some late first-round buzz, but he’ll probably end up as one of those high second-round backup point guards. Malachi Flynn is the consummate backup point guard. He’s a noted gym rat and high IQ player who is terrific running the pick and roll and initiating the offense.
One of the unique things about Malachi Flynn is that he transferred two years ago from Washington State to San Diego State. The Aztecs were one of the best teams in basketball this year, going 30–2 en route to a surefire 1-seed before the pandemic canceled March Madness. That was a stark contrast to the last time Flynn played up at Washington State, where the Cougars went 12–19, including an ugly 4–14 in conference.
So what did Malachi Flynn do in his transfer year off to transform his game? As it turns out, the answer is nothing. He was actually just really good the whole time.
Check out Flynn’s Four Factors and offensive on/off metrics at Pivot Analysis:
There’s a whole lot of green there and, notably, the green is consistent across Flynn’s sophomore and senior seasons. When Flynn was on the court, his teams were better at nearly everything. They shot better, got to the line more, had a more positive shot profile, and scored more efficiently. On two entirely different teams, Flynn made his roster better at almost everything.
Check out San Diego State’s team shooting profiles with and without Flynn this year:
Look how much easier everything got for the Aztecs with Flynn on the court. San Diego State’s points per shot increased from 0.99 to 1.11 with Flynn out there. The difference was especially stark at the rim. The Aztecs increased from 48 to 60% field goal percentage at the rim with Flynn and from 0.97 to 1.21 PPS. Flynn is getting his teammates good easy looks in the most valuable spot on the court.
With Flynn on the court this season, San Diego State’s Net Rating increased from +7.5 to +26.3. That’s the difference between a regular old perfectly fine Mountain West team without Flynn to the world-beating 1-seed Aztecs with him out there. Their offensive rating went up from 104.5 to 121.1.
But that success wasn’t new to Flynn — he just had better teammates this year. In his last year at Washington State, the Cougars’ Net Rating increased from -17.0 to -4.4 with Flynn on the court. Their offensive rating went up from 98.8 to 109.9. Flynn wasn’t good enough to save Washington State on his own, but he made them competent. Without him, they were a complete trashcan.
Flynn is a useful player who makes his teammates better. He’s the exact sort of cheap floor general that teams have been picking up in the second round to lead the bench unit. Look at what players like Alex Caruso and T.J. McConnell are doing for their teams. Malachi Flynn will help an NBA team, too.
PF Killian Tillie, Gonzaga
Tillie is a prototypical stretch four. He’s 6'10 with a sweet jumper and has proven to be an incredibly efficient scorer, not just behind the arc but at every level. Gonzaga was also better defensively with Tillie on the court. Really, Gonzaga was better at pretty much everything with Tillie out there. The only problem is that Tillie has a long injury history that limits his time on the court, both in games played and in minutes per game when he does play.
Take a look at the Four Factors and on/off metrics for Tillie at Pivot Analysis. Forget about the numbers and just focus on the colors. Green is good:
Green, green everywhere. Tillie makes the Zags better. And that’s no small feat, you know. Gonzaga went 133–13 in Tillie’s four seasons. They were a 1-seed twice and would’ve been a third time if the tournament had been played this year. They beat just about everyone they played and were consistently one of the best teams in basketball. And even as good as Gonzaga was, Killie Tillie still made them even better at nearly everything.
Tilie’s shot profile also shows him to be much more than just a three-point shooting stretch four. He’s a good scorer at every level:
Tillie hit at least 40% of his threes in all four seasons, but we already knew he was good there. Notice that he also hit over two-thirds of his shots at the rim, and that only about half of them were assisted. Those are incredibly efficient points too, and points he often produced on his own. Note the strong mid-range numbers from 2017/18, too. Gonzaga’s offense didn’t give him that shot going forward, but he can score in the mid-range, at the rim, and behind the arc.
Pivot Analysis recently put out a new tool showing Total Points Added per 100 possessions and rating all players by percentile. Killian Tillie rates highest of every 2020 prospect and in the 96.8th percentile of all players this decade. He’s in the 97th percentile in offensive points added and in the 94th percentile in defensive points added.
In overall Total Points Added, Tillie ranks in the top 25 players of the entire decade. And in case you’re wondering who else made the list, you should know that Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, and Karl-Anthony Towns all rank in the top 10.
Tillie is just below them, but unlike those three, he won’t cost the #1 pick in the draft. His injury history will push him much further down, probably even into the second round. Kilian Tillie could be a huge value to whatever team is smart enough to grab him there.
SG Desmond Bane, TCU
Every team in the NBA wants a shooter. Devin Vassell is the deserving 3-and-D prospect du jour. Aaron Nesmith is a potential lottery pick with a blazing shot. Saddiq Bey and Tyrell Terry are expected to go in the first, almost entirely because of their shooting. So why isn’t Desmond Bane on the list too?
Bane made 249 of 575 threes in his career at TCU, a sparkling 43.3%. He hit over 80% of his free throws and got even better as a shooter during his time at TCU. But Bane is more than just a three-point shooter. As we dig into his profile at Pivot Analysis, we see much more than just threes.
Here are Bane’s on/off metrics over his four seasons at TCU.
Again, a whole lot of green — on both offense and defense. TCU’s entire offense was better with Desmond Bane on the court. Their assist rate went up significantly, by 6.2% this season, and their three-point percentage skyrocketed. Last season, TCU shot 28% behind the arc without Bane but 35% with him. This season, the Horned Frogs shot just 24% on threes without Bane but 36% with him out there.
Notice that the defense was better with Bane too, in almost every way. He’s not just a shooter. He’s a basketball player, and a good one.
And he’s not just a standstill three-point shooter either. Check out Bane’s shot profile:
Your eyes should automatically go to those blue columns on the right. Bane’s three-point percentage was good every season, and the volume went up each year. But notice that last number in the bottom right corner. For his first three seasons at TCU, 147 of Bane’s 157 threes were assisted by teammates. He was exclusively a catch-and-shoot guy. This year, Bane added 28 unassisted threes, showing increased shot versatility. Now he’s dribbling and stepping into his own looks, too. That’s a very meaningful role increase.
It’s not totally unexpected, either. Bane also scored consistently from the mid-range, and only about half of those were assisted too. He is getting these shots on his own and flashing more than just catch-and-shoot ability. Bane can hit the three, pull up for a jumper, pass a bit, and play good team D.
Bane is a smart, well rounded guard who’s ready to play right now. He won’t be a star at the next level, but as a late pick, he doesn’t have to be. Bane is reminiscent of Malcolm Brogdon, another well-rounded four year guard. Desmond Bane is ready to step into a role and help a team win team.
Paul Reed, Malachi Flynn, Killian Tillie, and Desmond Bane may all be available in the second round on draft night, but all four of them look like excellent 2020 NBA Draft sleepers.
The tools at Pivot Analysis show these four veterans are ready-made impact players at the next level. Coming soon, to an NBA team near you! ■
Pivot Analysis is the premier provider of basketball analytical tools and data services on leagues other than the NBA. From coaching to prospect analysis to predictive analytics and more, Pivot Analysis provides a cutting edge service covering multiple collegiate and professional leagues across the globe.
