2023 NBA Draft Guide & Big Board Rankings
Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson lead a top-heavy draft, but a deep class of role players offers intrigue. Positional rankings, big board & everything you need for Draft Day 2023!
The NBA Draft is like Christmas for draft nerds, and Christmas is finally here. There’s no drama at the top of the draft with Victor Wembanyama a stone cold lock to go No. 1 to the San Antonio Spurs, but that doesn’t mean Christmas won’t bring plenty of surprises either way.
This is your one-stop shop for the NBA Draft, getting you ready with all the basics you need to know with this year’s Big Board. You’ll notice it’s significantly shorter than the usual 75,000 words. My strongest thoughts are already in writing over at Action Network, so at times I’ll refer you there rather than saying it twice. I just wasn’t able to go as deep this year as usual but wanted to share the thoughts and scouting work I had.
The good news is everything’s in one place, with this serving as an archive of where I’m at on these guys on Draft Day. I’ve written in the past about my methodology. We’ll go through my players by tiers with brief thoughts on each, and you’ll find my final Big Board at the bottom.
Merry Draftmas!!
TIER I — THE BEST PROSPECT IN HUMAN HISTORY
1. C Victor Wembanyama, France
If you’re reading this, you absolutely know about Victor Wembanyama already. This 7-foot-4 dude with an 8-foot wingspan and 10-foot standing reach has been called “the greatest prospect in team sports history,” “Gen-Z Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,” and a “Future GOAT.”
There’s no question we’ve never seen anyone like this, a giant that swats shots on D, then crosses dudes over and pulls up for a step-back one-foot fadeaway jumper. Wemby looks like a Create A Player on 2K.
So is he the real deal? That remains to be seen — but I’m skeptical. I’m concerned about the thin frame and about the history of players his size, and I’m not convinced he has super-duper MVP upside given the role he’s likely to play on offense.
I wrote at length about Wembanyama at Action Network. This is the guy I’ve written most about, so you’ll definitely want to given it a look.
TIER II — PROBABLY #1 MOST OTHER DRAFTS
2. PG Scoot Henderson, G League Ignite
I wrote about Scoot in that above article too, because he’s my early pick for 2024 Rookie of the Year.
In many drafts — most of them, maybe — Scoot Henderson would be the #1 pick, and rightfully so. He’s in a tier all his own and I think he’s a star in waiting and future face of a franchise, though it remains to be seen if that’s the Hornets, Blazers, Pelicans, or someone else.
Scoot has that proverbial dog in him. He’s a leader with all the intangibles, and he’s a fiery competitor. I love that when Henderson played an exhibition game against Wembanyama last fall, he went right at him, despite being 14 inches shorter, fearlessly attacking the French giant. Oh, he got absolutely swatted to, but I love that he attacked. That’s who Scoot is.
Henderson is a superb athlete, strong with a big leap. He has a great first step and terrific change of pace, more quick than fast, and he’s a walking paint touch and can get to his spot anytime. He played two years with the G League Ignite in a pro environment and was a very positive player running a professional environment at age 18, and he improved a ton from last year.
The shot needs work but his mid-range is compact and confident this year, and the rest of the shooting profile looks like it’ll come around. Scoot is short at 6-foot-2 but has a 6-foot-9 wingspan, so that and his athleticism more than make up for the size.
Scoot looks like a future star to me.
TIER III — MY GUYS
3. SF Brandon Miller, Alabama
4. PF Jarace Walker, Houston
5. PG Cason Wallace, Kentucky
6. PG Anthony Black, Arkansas
7. PF Taylor Hendricks, Central Florida
My top three matches the consensus top three, but there’s a pretty big drop to this next tier. I’m not sure I see these guys as star potential as much as star role players, guys ready to fit onto winning NBA rosters.
Brandon Miller looks like a surefire NBA wing, and that’s priceless. He’s a knockdown shooter, 40% on volume catch-and-shoot 3s as a freshman on a #1 team, with 86% free throw shooting to boot. Miller is also a positive defender with great size and should be able to play the four some once he fills out. I don’t love his ability to get to or finish at the rim, and I don’t love the legal situation, but every single NBA team needs a long wing shooter.
Everyone’s high on Miller, but not all are on Jarace Walker, Cason Wallace, and Anthony Black. Why? Because folks are forever obsessed with PPG as the be-all-end-all and don’t understand that winning basketball comes from so many more things than just the ball going in the bucket.
These are winning players, great defenders, high motor guys that do the little things. They’re multiplicative not additive, making their teammates better. Jarace, Cason, and Black are my three favorite players in the draft, guys I’m planting my flag on. I wrote at length about all three, so be sure to read more about the specifics I love for all three at Action Network.
Taylor Hendricks feels like a modern big man. He’s bouncy and athletic and plays with high effort, and he’s athletic and agile which means he can switch and defend multiple positions. Hendricks looks like a modern NBA defender, and he’s also a 39% 3-point shooter with some vertical pop on the pick-and-roll. He was a revelation for UCF and might have real star upside.
TIER IV — THE HIGH VARIANCE WINGS
8. SF Ausar Thompson, Overtime Elite
9. SG Gradey Dick, Kansas
10. SF Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite
11. SF Cam Whitmore, Villanova
12. SF Dariq Whitehead, Duke
I have real questions about all of these guys, but every NBA team needs wings, so it’s time to start taking a shot on upside at the most important position.
What in the world do we do with the Thompson twins? These guys played against a bunch of 16- and 18-year olds in the unknown Overtime Elite league and were more good than great, mostly dominating with their huge athleticism advantage and, you know, being 2–4 years older at a key age.
Amen has the higher upside if everything clicks. He may be a top 5 athlete in the NBA. Add that to his size and playmaking and he could end up a great defensive point guard. Ausar has the safer floor. He’s not quite the same athlete but still very good on that end and much more well-rounded overall. Ausar has better feel for the game, moves the ball well, makes quick decisions, and contributes in a lot of ways.
Neither Thompson can shoot to save their lives, and both got a lot of their scoring simply by being wildly athletic and getting out in transition in a wide open league. I’m just not convinced these guys are worth the high investment — just two guys I don’t mind missing on. Too much risk.
Cam Whitmore is one of the youngest players in the draft, but I never saw it. He’s a ball stopper with an unproven shot and loves to slow things down, with a wild shot selection and no real mid range. He’s an awful playmaker at under an assist per game and lacks feel. The upside is supposed to be his explosive athleticism, but I was underwhelmed by that too. Maybe he thrives in the more open NBA getting out in transition and attacking downhill, and teams need athletic wings, so he’s worth a shot.
Gradey Dick doesn’t really fit in this tier of wild unproven upside — he feels like the exact opposite. Dick looks like the best shooter in the draft and a guy who will be a useful role player for the next 15 years. He has elite touch and is a great cutter and finisher, and he has smart positioning on both ends. One of the surest things in the draft.
Dariq Whitehead was the #1 high school recruit before a bad year at Duke, but I think the injury he played with all season bought him value. Here’s a long wing with good athleticism and a sweet shot, and a lot of what went wrong at Duke can be tied to the loss of confidence to injury. Duke and Kentucky guys tend to get pigeonholed into specific roles and end up underrated in the draft. I love Dariq and wrote more about him here.
TIER V — TAKE A SHOT ON UPSIDE
13. PF Leonard Miller, G League Ignite
14. SF Jordan Walsh, Arkansas
15. SF Bilal Coulibaly, France
16. SG Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
17. SG Keyonte George, Baylor
This could probably be a sub-tier of Tier IV above, another five guys with big question marks but tons of upside.
Leonard Miller and Jordan Walsh are two more of my favorite guys in the draft. They’re also in that Action article so I’ll let you read more there. Miller looks like a ready-made combo forward, and Walsh is my favorite non-Wemby defender in the draft but needs to find some offense.
I like Walsh a little better than Bilal Coulibaly because he seems like the actualized version of what the young French wing is supposed to become. Coulibaly popped down the stretch in his run to the French league Finals with Wembanyama, so I understand folks buying into his raw upside.
I like Hood-Schifino and Keyonte for what they are, but they’re player types I never want to over-invest in. JHS is really good running the pick-and-roll and makes great reads with a pull-up he loves, but the numbers weren’t great and there’s not much else there. George is a nifty ball-handler, has a knack for creating space and getting to his shot, and he’s a good finisher. Both guys are scorers at heart but lack some athleticism and defense, and I just don’t need to invest in one-way shooting guards.
TIER VI — COMPLEMENTARY ROLE PLAYERS
18. SG Andre Jackson, UConn
19. PF Noah Clowney, Alabama
20. SF Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette
21. C Derek Lively, Duke
22. PG Amari Bailey, UCLA
23. SG Jordan Hawkins, UConn
Andre Jackson is a wing Draymond Green. He has incredible feel and always ends up in the right place, and he plays with a high motor and makes winning plays on both ends. Jackson’s an awesome team defender and great passing playmaker. He just can’t shoot or score, but we’re seeing more and more of these guys fit in on awesome offenses like Denver and Golden State — and UConn, where Jackson was the best player on a national champion.
Jackson’s teammate Jordan Hawkins is ranked ahead on every board I’ve seen but on the bottom of this tier for me. He’s an electric shooter but has a super thin frame and is already 21 so I’m not convinced he’ll fill out or have the strength to defend or find space to get his shot off.
Dereck Lively is a high riser as the only top center outside of Wemby. He’s a great rim protector and a vertical threat, but rim runners tend to take a long time to develop. Think JaVale McGee, perhaps with a 3 eventually. Lotta those guys available for cheap around the league. I’d rather take a gamble on Noah Clowney. He’s still only 18 and looks like a more versatile switchy defender, a la Nic Claxton. That’s the more valuable modern big.
I didn’t see a ton of OMax or Bailey but like the profiles. OMax is a Robert Covington type, a big lengthy wing with explosive athleticism and high effort, and he’s an improving shooter. Looks like a 3-and-D wing. Bailey was a slow starter at UCLA but came on late and has a high pedigree as a potential three-level scorer.
The guys in this tier just look worth betting on as rotation players with winning roles.
TIER VII — FINISH OUT THAT FIRST ROUND
24. SG Kobe Bufkin, Michigan
25. SF Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine
26. PG Marcus Sasser, Houston
27. SG Ricky Council IV, Arkansas
28. PF GG Jackson, South Carolina
29. SG Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
Kobe Bufkin is a high riser and looks like he’ll go in the lottery. He’s a combo guard that does a lot of things well. Honestly, just not a guy I know a ton about so I can’t rank him too high. Could be a guy I end up missing on, but he’s not really my type as a smallish guard with no standout skill.
Maxwell Lewis is another 3-and-D swing, but both the shooting and defense are more good than great and he has a pretty thin frame for his age. He reminds me of Devin Vassell or Trey Murphy, just not as good.
Sasser and Council are two of my favorite sleepers. Sasser looks destined to be this year’s too-old-too-small PG that drops to the second, then instantly finds a role doing the stuff he’s done for years, defending and hitting 3s. He won a lotta games at Houston. Council is just a nuclear athlete that gets to the rim and makes highlight plays. I’ll bet on athleticism.
I liked GG Jackson early but I think I just caught a couple of his good games. He’s one of the youngest guys in the draft and was supposed to be a top pick in 2024 but the shot selection and numbers were pretty ghastly. He’s a black hole as a passer and had terrible body language and maturity with zero feel for the game or processing speed.
I knew little about Brandin Podziemski before this final draft stretch, but he’s the sort of guy I typically fall in love with — elite shooter, great touch, super feel for the game, and plenty of creation. I’m worried about the poor size and lack of athleticism and the fact that he struggled at Illinois before transferring, then against top opponents too but hope he hits.
THESE AREN’T THE DROIDS YOU’RE LOOKING FOR
SG Nick Smith, Arkansas
SF Kris Murray, Iowa
SG Jett Howard, Michigan
PF Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
I really wanted to find a 30th guy to round out a full first round but no one else stuck out. Instead, a few brief thoughts on four names you might be looking for, so you know I didn’t just accidentally forget them.
Really tried to get there with Nick Smith but he’s just the exact archetype I want nothing to do with — a small scoring guard who plays small, racks up inefficient scoring, hurts the team overall, and then gets overpaid for PPG. There’s no denying his scoring ability, handle, and explosion but he has no shot on D, never gets to the rim, and an awful shot selection. No thanks.
Kris Murray is Keegan’s twin brother. I wasn’t high on Keegan last year, and Kris is a worse version of all of it, a year older at his draft age when Keegan was already an older prospect, a tweener like Keegan too, and just not a guy I think we’d notice much if not for his better brother. Just a guy, for me.
Part of why I didn’t see much Bufkin is because I was out on Michigan teammate, Jett Howard. He’s a below average athlete and poor defender, and I’m just not into shooters if there’s not much else on the menu.
Last and also least is Brice Sensabaugh. A lot of folks I trust are high on him, but I just don’t see it. He’s a horrendous defender and bad passer and lacks feel for the game, and he plays like a four but is too short with no position to defend. People love Sensabaugh because he gets buckets, but I see a huge injury history and a severe lack of athleticism. If you’re a smaller T.J. Warren with even worse medicals and defense, I’m out. He’s this year’s guy that just doesn’t pass the eye test or the smell test for me. ■
FINAL 2023 NBA DRAFT BIG BOARD
TIER I — THE BEST PROSPECT IN HUMAN HISTORY
1. C1 Victor Wembanyama, France
TIER II — PROBABLY #1 MOST OTHER DRAFTS
2. PG1 Scoot Henderson, G League Ignite
TIER III — MY GUYS
3. SF1 Brandon Miller, Alabama
4. PF1 Jarace Walker, Houston
5. PG2 Cason Wallace, Kentucky
6. PG3 Anthony Black, Arkansas
7. PF2 Taylor Hendricks, Central Florida
TIER IV — THE HIGH VARIANCE WINGS
8. SF2 Ausar Thompson, Overtime Elite
9. SG1 Gradey Dick, Kansas
10. SF3 Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite
11. SF4 Cam Whitmore, Villanova
12. SF5 Dariq Whitehead, Duke
TIER V — TAKE A SHOT ON UPSIDE
13. PF3 Leonard Miller, G League Ignite
14. SF6 Jordan Walsh, Arkansas
15. SF7 Bilal Coulibaly, France
16. SG2 Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
17. SG3 Keyonte George, Baylor
TIER VI — COMPLEMENTARY ROLE PLAYERS
18. SG4 Andre Jackson, UConn
19. PF4 Noah Clowney, Alabama
20. SF8 Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette
21. C2 Derek Lively, Duke
22. PG4 Amari Bailey, UCLA
23. SG5 Jordan Hawkins, UConn
TIER VII — FINISH OUT THAT FIRST ROUND
24. SG6 Kobe Bufkin, Michigan
25. SF9 Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine
26. PG5 Marcus Sasser, Houston
27. SG7 Ricky Council IV, Arkansas
28. P5F GG Jackson, South Carolina
29. SG8 Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here and be sure to listen to the Buckets podcast and follow him at Action Network for his latest!
