A Perfect Bowl Season: An Alternative to the Current Playoff System
While it is easy to be critical of the 2023 college football playoffs (Guglielmello 2023), we can rejoice that this is the last year where only four teams are selected. Starting in 2024, there will be a 12-team playoff with at least half of them being conference champions (this could be revised due to realignment). This should eliminate any debate about the legitimacy of the national champion while making the conference championship even more valuable; especially for teams outside the Power Conferences. While I am confident there will be future debates over the last couple of teams either admitted or excluded from the playoff, such a debate does not threaten the legitimacy of the national champion when there were only four teams. After all, if a team cannot win their conference championship and has enough losses to be knocked down outside the top ten, then that team should look at themselves to blame rather than the selection committee. But I digress. While I would support a 12-team playoff, I would have supported a different system to decide the playoffs. In this alternate universe, this would have been my proposal.
Since the BCS, Bowl Championship Series, the bowls were the main mechanism used to decide the national champion. In this system, the best two teams would play in one of the bowls which would then be the national championship. This carried over to the playoff system wherein two of the six major bowls would host the semifinals and then the national championship game would be played on a neutral field. In the future playoffs, the first round of the playoffs would be hosted at the higher seed’s field and then the quarterfinals and semifinals would be hosted by the bowls; the national championship would still be played at a neutral field. While the major bowls are still a part of the system, they seem to be stepping stones rather than accomplishments on their own. After all, in 2024, a team could win the Rose Bowl and the Orange Bowl and still be disappointed to lose the national championship. If the NCAA was hoping to include multiple Bowls in the system similar to making the Final Four, I am afraid they will not be successful.
In addition, college bowls were an important tradition within college football. Winning the Big Ten or the Pac-12 meant a trip to the Rose Bowl. Winning the SEC meant a trip to the Sugar Bowl. These traditions have been in place for over half a century; for the Pac-12 it lasted for over a century. Even the Cotton Bowl had a tie-in with the defunct Southwestern Conference for over 50 years. While the Orange, Fiesta, and Peach Bowls may not have the same connected history with the conference championship as the other bowls, they have their own proud histories with unforgettable games. Making these bowls meant something and winning them often created champions. With that being said, the alternative proposal that I am making would preserve these traditions, treat a victory of winning a bowl akin to making the Final Four, and ensure the legitimacy of the national champion is not in doubt.
Instead of having a 12-team playoff, I would have a 4-team playoff. Unlike the current 4-team playoff, I would have the commission select the teams after the bowls are played. It would not add any additional games compared to the new 12-team playoff, preserves the bowl system, and allows more teams to compete for the playoffs. Similar to now, the Power-5 conference champions earn the right to play in one of the six major bowls, the best and deserving non-Power-5 conference champions would earn the right to play in a major bowl, and at-large teams would fill out the remaining positions. Out of these 12 teams that play in the major bowl, the winners have the ability to be selected for the 4-team playoff while the losers would be eliminated. So while the Bowls would be similar to the first round of the playoffs, winning the bowl earns one the right to be considered for the playoffs; thus winning a bowl would be its own accomplishment rather than a stepping stone to a higher round game. I would make some tweaks to the current bowl system to ensure better matchups.
Before I talk about the specific bowl tie-ins for this system, let me talk about some of the philosophical reasoning behind it. In the college football playoff selection process, there seem to be three groups of teams that make one of the major bowls. The first group has teams with credentials that cannot be questioned. They, usually, are an undefeated Power-5 conference team that performed well all year. These teams are generally the favorites to make and win the playoffs and it usually has two teams per year. The next group has teams that have strong resumes but with a blemish. They usually consist of a one-loss Power-5 conference champion, a one-loss Power-5 team that performed well all year, and undefeated non-Power-5 conference champions with a good resume. These teams are the teams that are on the bubble when the playoff commission makes their decision. These bubble teams have an argument in favor and against their inclusion in a 4-team playoff. In any year, there are usually 2 to 6 teams with the average being 4. The rest of the teams in the major bowls are generally respectable but not considered for the playoffs. These teams generally have two losses or are non-Power-5 teams that may be undefeated but lack a good resume.
With the bowl system I am proposing, the bubble teams would play each other. If there is a strong debate between two teams entering the playoffs, I am unable to think of a better solution than those teams playing each other. On the other hand, since the favorites have done well enough to qualify for the playoffs, they do not need to be as challenged as the bubble teams and play the respectable teams. On the other hand, if the respectable team is an undefeated non-Power-5 team with a weak schedule, they can now prove themselves. Win against one of the best teams in the nation, then that team’s resume and stock will skyrocket. This same could be said for a two-loss conference Power-5 champion. While not considered in the current playoff system, a victory could prove large. So in theory, teams ranked 3rd to 6th would play each other. Teams ranked the highest would either play a lower-ranked team or a non-Power-5 champion. Then the remaining teams would play each other in order to create possible playoff matchups if the best teams lose and to ensure good games for the television audience. However, it will not always work like this due to tradition.
In order to preserve traditions, I will try to keep the general tie-ins but some changes will need to be made. But overall, the long-standing traditions will be preserved except for cases where the playoff needs to alter the bowl matchups. The Rose Bowl has a tie-in with both the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions. For the most part, this would not be changed. Both conferences have a long-existing relationship with the Rose Bowl and guaranteeing a scenario where two Power-5 conferences play each other prevents any one conference from being excluded in the playoff race. There will be exceptions to this rule. If the Big Ten or Pac-12 champion is a bubble team and the other team is out of the race, then the lower-ranked team would be replaced by another bubble team. In a similar vein, a repeat matchup from a prior year that would have no impact on the playoff would be replaced as well with the lower-ranked team playing in a different bowl. Lastly, if prudent, two teams that are considered favorites could be altered as well. The rest of the bowls are, mostly, straightforward. The SEC winner goes to the Sugar Bowl. We altered the Big 12 tie-in where the winner will play in the Cotton Bowl. This ensures greater flexibility with scheduling and many of the Big 12 teams have a historic connection to both the Southwestern Conference and the Cotton Bowl. The ACC champion will still go to the Orange Bowl. The Peach Bowl will have a tie-in with Notre Dame if they qualify and the Fiesta Bowl will have no tie-in. However, when needed, exceptions could be made. The biggest exception is to create better matchups for playoff positioning. This could mean two conference champions play each other instead of going to their natural tie-in. In this case, the higher-ranked team would keep its tie-in.
Within this spirit, I will now show how I would have created the bowls for the 2023 season and the rationale for it. I will also list the bowl matchups I would have created in the system dating back to 2014 (I however will not give my reasons unless a comment specifically asks about a specific year). Below are the matchups with the rankings per the College Football.
Rose Bowl — #1 Michigan vs #2 Washington
Sugar Bowl — #4 Alabama vs #5 Florida State
Orange Bowl — #6 Georgia vs #8 Oregon
Fiesta Bowl — #10 Penn State vs #11 Ole Miss
Peach Bowl — #9 Missouri vs #23 Liberty
Cotton Bowl — #3 Texas vs #7 Ohio State
One may question the wisdom of the two highest-ranked teams playing each other in the Rose Bowl. It would not be a bad question by any stretch of the imagination. While we seriously debated about separating this matchup, we felt there were better reasons to keep the Rose Bowl intact. If bowls were able to keep their tradition, then every Big Ten and Pac-12 school’s goal would be to play their final game of the regular season in the Rose Bowl so they could make the playoffs. It would be unfair to move Washington when they accomplished this goal with a perfect season. This matchup also does not hurt the rest of the teams competing for the playoffs. While Liberty could have made a stronger case to be included in the playoffs against one of the highest-ranked teams, defeating a top-ten team should strengthen their schedule enough that they would be included in the conversation. Since splitting the traditional Rose Bowl would not necessarily create a better playoff picture, we kept it together.
On the other hand, we had to remove the Orange Bowl’s tie-in of the ACC champion. In the current format, there is a great debate on who should have been the fourth team selected (Guglielmello 2023). While the committee went with Alabama, there is a strong argument for Florida State to be included instead. What is the better way to settle this argument than these two teams playing on the field? Due to this, it made more sense for Florida State to play Alabama during the bowl season. Since Alabama was the higher-ranked team, the Sugar Bowl kept its tie-in with the SEC champion.
Going into the Bowl Season, there would be nine teams that could harbor a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. In the scenarios we will present, Missouri, Penn State, and Ole Miss would be unable to make the playoffs. Still, the Peach Bowl would have a large impact on the playoffs and the Fiesta Bowl has an interesting matchup that could alter the perception of the Big Ten and the SEC. If we wanted to limit the bowls to only three teams per conference, then Ole Miss would be replaced with #12 Oklahoma. While the Penn State vs Ole Miss game would be better for judging the rest of the teams, a Penn State vs Oklahoma match would likely do well with the television ratings.
Scenarios
There are effectively two bowl games where both entrants have a straightforward path to the playoffs with a win. Those games are the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl. Simply put, if any of those teams win their matchup, they are in the playoffs. If they lose, they are eliminated. Due to this, there are effectively two remaining spots up for grabs.
If Texas wins the Cotton Bowl, they are in as they are already a top-4 team. If Liberty beats Missouri, Liberty will be in the playoffs as well. Liberty played a much weaker competition which is why they are not ranked as highly. But if they prove themselves against one of the best teams in the SEC, I do not believe anyone would mind their inclusion. If Liberty loses, then both the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowls would effectively select the remaining two teams in the playoffs. While Texas is in with a win no matter what, if Liberty loses, Ohio State would be able to win and make the playoffs. Then the last spot for the playoffs would be between Georgia and Oregon. Due to this, the only complicated scenario would be if Liberty won and Ohio State won. In this scenario, Liberty would be in and the remaining spot would be between Ohio State and Georgia/Oregon.
If Oregon were to beat Georgia, the largest impact of the 4th playoff spot would be the Rose Bowl. If Washington were to lose, this would effectively eliminate Oregon and allow Ohio State in the playoffs. If Michigan were to lose, this would do critical damage to Ohio State and allow Oregon in the playoffs. The argument in this situation would use transitive property as the winning team of the Rose Bowl would be the “better” loss for the two teams remaining. While Oregon does have two losses, they are against the same team (Washington).
If Georgia were to beat Oregon, then it would be more complicated. While the Peach Bowl would be important, it would not be the same level of importance given to the Rose Bowl in an Ohio State/Oregon debate. Instead, the lower bowls, the Rose Bowl, and the Sugar Bowl would also impact this debate. If a conference has a significantly better performance in the bowls than the other, this should make the debate easier. If not, then while there would be some controversy, it would not be nearly as bad as the Alabama/Florida State debacle.
Results
Imagine the interest and intrigue going into these bowls, and the corresponding TV revenue. If you are an Oregon, Ohio State, or Georgia fan, you may be watching at least four bowl games to determine if your team is making the playoffs. Even if you are a Michigan, Washington, Alabama, or Florida State fan, you would watch the other bowls to see your team’s prospective opponent. This does not include the other bowl games that impact the perception of your conference. This gives teams with weak schedules, such as Liberty, the ability to prove themselves. It also ends the most controversial aspects of the current system. Instead of a committee deciding between Alabama and Florida State, a football game would decide their fate.
This system would generate more interest in more bowls, better preserve traditions, eliminate the most controversial aspects of the current playoff system, and make the bowls more relevant. In the current format, either the bowls are a consolation prize or the semi-finals in the playoff. In this system, winning the bowl would be akin to making it to the Final Four. Plus, it would not be bad for business.
Will this system ever happen? Probably not. It would be hard to see the NCAA go from a 12-team playoff to this system. Furthermore, college football is becoming more centralized, and thus in a generation, the championship may be between just the largest and most powerful conferences (Guglielmello 2023). While we can judge the future on its own merits, this article hoped to illustrate how college football could have preserved what made it great while evolving to create the best system for a national championship.
Alternative Universe — Scenario #2
In a prior article, I argued that Florida State should have been in the playoffs instead of Alabama, the article can be found here, and made the comment that the playoff committee did not want to exclude the SEC from the playoffs is the reason Alabama was selected. In my scenario, the SEC would not be excluded from a possible playoff and has two teams with a very good chance of making it. So, what would the playoff matches be if Florida State was ranked #3, Texas ranked #4, and Alabama ranked #5 without any other changes to the rankings?
Rose Bowl — #1 Michigan vs #2 Washington
Sugar Bowl — #6 Georgia vs #8 Oregon
Orange Bowl — #3 Florida State vs #5 Alabama
Fiesta Bowl — #10 Penn State vs #11 Ole Miss
Peach Bowl — #9 Missouri vs #23 Liberty
Cotton Bowl — #4 Texas vs #7 Ohio State
In a sense, there were no major changes in the bowl or reasons for the matchups. The only difference is Florida State vs Alabama would be in the Orange Bowl instead of the Sugar Bowl since Florida State would have a higher ranking.
As promised, here below would be the prospective bowls from 2014 to 2022. If you have any questions for me about any year or any other alternative scenarios, please let me know. We only included non-Power 5 teams if they were undefeated or in the top 12. Rankings before the bowls are included:
2014
Rose: #2 Oregon vs #4 Ohio State
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #8 Michigan State
Orange: #3 Florida State vs #6 TCU
Fiesta: #9 Ole Miss vs #10 Arizona
Peach: #11 Kansas State vs #12 Georgia Tech
Cotton: #5 Baylor vs #7 Mississippi State
2015
Rose: #3 Michigan State vs #6 Stanford
Sugar: #2 Alabama vs #7 Ohio State
Orange: #1 Clemson vs #12 Ole Miss
Fiesta: #10 North Carolina vs #11 TCU
Peach: #8 Notre Dame vs #9 Florida State
Cotton: #4 Oklahoma vs #5 Iowa
2016
Rose: #4 Washington vs #5 Penn State
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #15 Western Michigan
Orange: #2 Clemson vs #10 Colorado
Fiesta: #3 Ohio State vs #11 Florida State
Peach: #8 Wisconsin vs #9 USC
Cotton: #7 Oklahoma vs #6 Michigan
2017:
Rose: #5 Ohio State vs #4 Alabama
Sugar: #3 Georgia vs #9 Penn State
Orange: #1 Clemson vs #12 UCF
Fiesta: #7 Auburn vs #8 USC
Peach: #10 Miami vs #11 Washington
Cotton: #2 Oklahoma vs #6 Wisconsin
2018
Rose: #6 Ohio State vs #9 Washington
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #7 Michigan
Orange: #2 Clemson vs #11 LSU
Fiesta: #10 Florida vs #12 Penn State
Peach: #3 Notre Dame vs #8 UCF
Cotton: #4 Oklahoma vs #5 Georgia
2019
Rose: #2 Ohio State vs #5 Georgia
Sugar: #1 LSU vs #10 Penn State
Orange: #3 Clemson vs #7 Baylor
Fiesta: #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida
Peach: #11 Utah vs #12 Auburn
Cotton: #4 Oklahoma vs #6 Oregon
2020:
Rose: #3 Ohio State vs #5 Texas A&M
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #12 Coastal Carolina
Orange: #2 Clemson vs #10 Iowa State
Fiesta: #9 Georgia vs #25 Oregon
Peach: #4 Notre Dame vs #8 Cincinnati
Cotton: #6 Oklahoma vs #7 Florida
2021
Rose: #2 Michigan vs #11 Utah
Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #10 Michigan State
Orange: #12 Pittsburgh vs #9 Oklahoma State
Fiesta: #4 Cincinnati vs #6 Ohio State
Peach: #5 Notre Dame vs #8 Ole Miss
Cotton: #7 Baylor vs #3 Georgia
2022
Rose: #2 Michigan vs #9 Kansas State
Sugar: #1 Georgia vs #16 Tulane
Orange: #6 Clemson vs #7 Tennessee
Fiesta: #4 Ohio State vs #5 Alabama
Peach: #10 USC vs #11 Penn State
Cotton: #3 TCU vs #8 Utah
