Antonio Brown: Buy or Say Bye

THE BEGINNING

When Antonio Brown went in the sixth round of the 2010 NFL Draft to the Pittsburgh Steelers, no one would’ve expected that he would become one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. His rookie year would go as expected for a player drafted in the late rounds, and he ended 2010 with 16 receptions and 167 yards with no touchdowns. What happened in 2011 would officially put Antonio Brown on the map.

While only starting three games he appeared in all 16 in 2011. Brown had a semi-breakout season with 69 receptions for 1,108 yards and two touchdowns. In PPR leagues he was golden and became a hot commodity in the dynasty community. There was no warning that this would happen especially considering Brown’s athletic profile.

At 5’10” and 186 pounds and 9″ hands, Brown ran a 4.57 40 yard dash and only put up 13 reps on the bench. His SPARQ score of 100 didn’t allow for much optimism on how successful he would be at the NFL level. The chip on the shoulder from getting drafted in the sixth round has manifested in his game play on the field, as he has become one of the most dynamic wide receivers to hit the turf in a long time. With 8,377 yards on 623 receptions with 50 receiving touchdowns at the age of 28, Brown doesn’t seem like he is going to slow down anytime soon, or will he?

THE ROAD TO GLORY

2014 and 2015 were monumental years for Brown. He averaged over 100 yards per game, exceeding a 70% catch rate both seasons. What put him on the map was in both years he had over 120 receptions and over 1,600 yards. He was a fantasy God in both standard and PPR leagues.

With 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns, 2014 was a great year for Brown. Big Ben played all 16 games, and Le’Veon Bell dominated the air and the ground with 1,361 ground yards and 854 air yards, totaling 11 TDs. Bell was able to open up the passing game, as did Martavis Bryant stretching the field. The Steelers had a dominant offense and Brown was the recipient of the glory with a stellar real life and fantasy year.

In 2015, Brown totaled 193 targets and had a 33% target share according to playerprofiler.com. Brown benefited from 24 targets in the red zone in which he had 17 red zone receptions. Of the 1,834 reception yards he gained, 68% of those yards were air yards. Brown was unstoppable in 2015, and that didn’t stop in 2016, but his numbers did noticeably decrease.

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

At the age of 28, Brown still put up elite stats with 106 receptions for 1,284 yards and 12 TDs in 2016. What is noticeable is the decrease in relevant statistics. Roethlisberger played in 14 games, yet Brown’s targets dropped from 193 in 2015 to 154 in 2016. His target share also fell from 33% in 2015 to 27% in 2016. Even his red zone targets decreased from 24 targets to 15, leading to a 7.4% decrease in red zone targets.

Now, we are talking about Brown having a career season in 2015 so it may have been expected he wouldn’t be able to sustain the 2015 numbers. What’s important is looking at why the numbers diminished. Going all the way back to Brown’s rookie year in 2010, a very concerning trend begins to emerge. Since 2010, Brown has never caught a touchdown from any quarterback other than Roethlisberger. Even during Brown’s incredible year in 2015, not once did he catch a touchdown pass from Michael Vick or Landry Jones while Roethlisberger was out.

During the games Roethlisberger was out, Darrius Hayward-Bay caught a 9-yard touchdown pass from Michael Vick and Martavis Bryant snagged three touchdown passes from Landry Jones in two weeks. Brown still averaged eight receptions a game but his red zone targets averaged between 0 and one compared to an average of two to four with Roethlisberger.

Second-year WR Eli Rogers served as a viable slot receiver after spending all of 2015 on IR. His emergence in the Steelers offense as a viable short-yardage receiver wouldn’t eat into Brown’s targets as some may think. As a matter of fact, while both Brown and Rogers shared almost 100% of the snaps against Dallas in 2016, Brown still dominated the target share with 18 targets to Rogers’s five.

Both co-exist in the Steelers’ offense as Brown does not just line up on short routes but also outside where is a dominant on the right side of the field. Rogers is strictly an inside receiver and never has had a red zone target. The concern with Rogers is that he has almost the same skillset as Brown. Here is a breakdown of Brown’s and Rogers’s measurements and athleticism.

Player Draft Height Weight Hand Arm 40 Bench Shuttle 3Cone Vertical Broad Jump Antonio Brown 6 Rnd 5’10” 187 9″ 31 4.57 13 4.18 6.98 33 1/2 8’9″ Eli Rogers UDFA 5’10” 186 8.5″ 29 7/8 4.62 19 4.1 6.71 34 1/2 9’9″

When looking at the two side-by-side, they are eerily similar. The path to the Steelers in the late rounds of the draft, along with their similar size and athleticism seem to be on point with what the Steelers look for in a receiver. Even though there were off-season trade rumors involving Antonio Brown, the Steelers never seriously considered trading him. Could the Steelers be grooming the next Antonio Brown just in case?

According to an article by Noah Strackbein of Stillcurtain.com, Rogers has turned to his “big bro” meaning Antonio Brown for help. Apparently, Brown has taken Rogers under his wing. Rogers has already proven he is a reliable receiver and has chemistry with Roethlisberger which may make him the front-runner as the slot receiver over rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster. Rogers looks like he could be a sneaky stash in dynasty leagues.

THE LOWDOWN

With Martavis Bryant reinstated and the addition of Smith-Schuster in the second round of the 2017 NFL draft, the Steelers offensive weapons are abundant. This high-powered offense could be the most dominant in 2017, but with so many mouths the feed, what does this mean for Brown’s production?

Ladarius Green was recently released by the Steelers with a failed physical designation, leaving third-year TE Jesse James as starting tight end. James underwhelmed last year as a starter and doesn’t seem to be a threat to take targets away from Brown. Sammie Coates only accounted for 10.1% of the Steeler’s offensive targets and only saw a snap share of 38.2%. With Bryant back in the picture, Coates will see a limited share of the snaps and doesn’t pose a threat to Brown’s production.

Rookie receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster won’t be an immediate threat to Brown’s production but could eat his way into the outside and slot receiver role where Brown plays. According to reception perception by Matt Harmon, Smith-Schuster played on 83.3% of his college snaps at right wide receiver. This is also where Brown lines up and has had great production.

THE VERDICT

The Steelers found their version of Tom Brady at the receiver position in the sixth round of the draft. The longevity of the receiver position is very underrated. Few small receivers have long careers relative to larger receivers. The hope is that a Steve Smith or Henry Ellard type of career becomes a reality for Brown. The fact is, there are a few red flags that we need to consider.

First, Brown’s productivity is linked to his QB and offensive situation. His lack of athleticism will not help him maintain his elite status once Roethlisberger retires and Brown possibly moves on to a different offensive system. The need to build chemistry and trust with a new QB wouldn’t be in Brown’s best interest at the age of 29.

Second, there was the incident of Brown posting coach Mike Tomlin’s comments about the Patriots on Facebook live. This led to Tomlin explaining how star players end up bouncing from team to team because of off-the-field distractions, referring to an on-going theme with Brown’s shenanigans.

Lastly, Brown has had a healthy career to this point. He will be 29 years-old in July which seems to leave a lot on the bone regarding production, but for an aging receiver that relies on timing routes with his QB to excel, how much production can Dynasty owners count on? The answer is, not what his current value holds.

Brown has maintained his status as the #1 fantasy receiver in PPR leagues for the last three years and two of the last three years in standard scoring. There is no sign that will stop as long as 35-year-old Roethlisberger continues to play. The problem is, this could all come to halt as soon as 2018.

When trading a blue chip player like Brown, timing is everything. If a team is a contender, selling Brown now is not an option, but should be considered at the end of next season. If a team is rebuilding, the timing is now to get a king’s ransom for Brown. The average going rate for Brown according to Twitter and Reddit polls is three first round picks and an RB2 or WR2. This is a substantial haul for a rebuilding team. Getting out now before all the red flags start to show their ugly face is imperative. Unless you are a contender, now is the time to start shopping Brown.

Originally published at dynastyfootballfactory.com on June 12, 2017.