Can Rutgers Football Make a Run for the Title in 2024?
Looking forward to the 2024 Big Ten Football Season, it seems that the race for the Big Ten is between 4 teams. These teams are Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan. In fact, per “way too early” analysis of next year’s college football teams, these four teams were in the top 15 and the only teams ranked within the conference (Schlabach 2024). Some Big Ten teams that just missed the cut were USC, Washington, Iowa, and Wisconsin. This would imply that these four teams should have the best odds outside of the ranked teams. However, there is a solid case that the team with the 5th best odds of winning the Big Ten are not these teams, but rather Rutgers. Such a proposition, which would have been ludicrous a few years ago, now seems like a possibility if we examine both the history and the future of Rutgers football.
If we examine Rutgers’ football history, we will notice two highlights. The first being the first college football game, in 1869, was played near the banks of the Raritan in New Brunswick. Thus, making Rutgers the birthplace of college football. After winning this first game, the next greatest highlight would occur on a Thursday night in 2006. On that night, Rutgers came back against the #3 team in the nation and scored the go-ahead field goal with 13 seconds on the field. Shocking both Louisville and the nation, Rutgers would climb into the top ten with its undefeated record. While Rutgers would suffer a couple of losses before ending the season, Rutgers would still finish 12th in both the AP and Coaches rankings. This was the highlight of the first Greg Schiano era of Rutgers Football.
In that era, Coach Schiano took over a hapless and helpless program. After a few years of struggling, Schiano was able to mold that team into a bowl team by 2005. Then, the magical 11–2 occurred in 2006 which was followed by solid seasons within the Big East. So the year after Rutgers made their first bowl under Schiano, there was a great leap in success. Let us examine Greg Schiano’s second era at Rutgers Football. In this era, Coach Schiano took over a hapless and helpless program. After a few years of struggling, Schiano was able to mold that team into a bowl team by 2023. If Rutgers takes a similar step this year as they made in 2006, then Rutgers would likely be at least a top-25 team; if not better. While such an assumption cannot be made, let us examine the 2024 season if Rutgers does take this step.
If Rutgers does take this step, it would be in a similar tier as USC, Washington, Iowa, and Wisconsin. But, it would not be in the same tier as the top 4 teams. This would make Rutgers a large underdog if it faced Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan. In fact, let us make the assumption that any Big Ten team that faces these top teams in the regular season would lose unless they themselves are a projected top-15 team. After this analysis, Rutgers would have suffered zero losses to this elite group.
Whether through divine intervention or through plain luck, Rutgers does not face Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, or Michigan in the 2024 season. It is the only Big Ten team not facing any of these opponents. Iowa, Nebraska, and Penn State were almost as lucky as they will only face one of these top-tier teams. Every other team faces two or three of these teams; with Ohio State the only top team that plays every other top team. While upsets may occur and a top ranking does not guarantee a victory, if we did assume that the top 15 teams win out except when they play each other, Rutgers would be one of the five teams with a chance of an unblemished record. If we add the condition that Ohio State goes undefeated, no other team besides Ohio State would have a chance for an undefeated season except for Rutgers.
Looking at the teams below the top tier, their schedules are significantly tougher than Rutgers. Washington joins Ohio State’s company by facing three of the top teams. They also play Rutgers as well. Fortunately for Rutgers, the Big Ten did not give any favors to Washington and their schedule. After playing their rival in the Apple Cup, Washington plays their first Big Ten game hosting Northwestern. They then travel to Rutgers before hosting Michigan. Out of these four games, which game is a trap game for Washington? Playing their ancient and hated rivals, their first game in their new conference, a team with little expectations outside of New Jersey, and a revenge game for the National Championship. Does this mean Rutgers wins? No. Does it increase the odds of Rutgers winning? I would think so.
USC also has a difficult schedule, particularly in its first seven weeks. USC plays LSU, Michigan, and Penn State as well as Wisconsin. In three of these games, USC looks to be the underdog. If USC struggles and ends this stretch with a losing record, it is possible that Lincoln Riley will be on the hot seat again. With such dysfunction, who enters the Coliseum? Rutgers. Again, this does not mean Rutgers will win; but it may help. While a Rutgers vs Wisconsin matchup does not have any of these scheduling quirks, Wisconsin does have to play two of the best teams. This means looking at the teams at the tier below the top teams, Rutgers’ road to the Big Ten championship is made much easier than any of its possible contemporaries. In fact, unless any other team not mentioned, USC, or Washington exceeds expectations, the Big Ten trophy for them may be out of reach.
This means the final seven teams fighting for the Big Ten title are Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Rutgers. To make the Big Ten title, the two teams that make it to Indianapolis would likely need to win every game or have one loss; anything more than two losses would eliminate them. Every other team would likely have more than two losses on their resume due to their schedule. Wisconsin would need to be perfect (besides their games against Penn State and Oregon) to reach this threshold of 2 losses. If Ohio State goes undefeated, Penn State would have at least one loss and Michigan vs Oregon would decide which team earns a second loss. Both Nebraska and Iowa would also have at least one loss. Wisconsin also plays Iowa and Nebraska; meaning the results of these games would likely end the hopes of at least two of these teams.
So if you are a Rutgers fan, the path to the Big Ten Championship will not be easy, but it is certainly easier than it was in the past. Instead of playing the three Titans as they have done every year in the Big Ten, this year a reasonable path lies in front of the Scarlet Knights. If Rutgers can progress to the next level, as they have done before, this has the makings of an amazing year. Rutgers either dodged the hardest teams or will play these teams on a schedule that favors Rutgers. A path to the promised land with more miracles has not occurred since the days of Exodus when Moses parted the Red Sea.
Which begs the question, will football be coming home in 2024?
