Is the NBA Ruined?
“Aren’t the NBA playoffs supposed to be more competitive than this?”
“Are the Golden State Warriors ruining the NBA?”
“Is this the least competitive NBA playoffs ever?
A simple Google search of “NBA getting less competitive” returns countless articles, many from high profile sports organizations, proclaiming the incredible lack of competitiveness in recent NBA playoffs. But is this really true?
Are the Wins Coming Easier?
The true measure of how competitive a given series is should be the number of games that it lasts — a 4 game sweep clearly indicates a large disparity between the two teams while a series where two teams battle until the final game is extremely balanced. Therefore, the best measure of competitiveness in the playoffs must be the number of games played. Perhaps what matters the most for determining competitiveness is not the overall number of playoff games in a year, which can be influenced by many variables, but rather the number of games that it takes for the top teams to reach the finals. In some years, the teams in the finals struggled through several lengthy series to reach that point, while in others the top teams seem to easily brush aside the competition.
Looking back at past playoff years, the path to the finals has certainly varied, but the last few years seem to be especially low in terms of the number of games played. 2017, with only 25 playoff games being played between the Warriors and Cavs previous to the finals, stands out as a sharp decrease compared to many previous years. Going back over the last two decades, we can adjust for the change in format that occurred in 2003 from a best of 5 to a best of 7 first round series by looking at the number of games played as a proportion of the total possible games per year. Only twice in that timespan was the proportion of games played under .7, and both of those times occurred in the last three years.
To determine any possible significance of these numbers, we must examine the results for every series dating back to 2003, when the switch to a seven game series began. Looking at the average number of games per series to get to the finals, the results are quite significant. Over the last three years, the average number of games per series for finals bound teams was 4.7 games; the average in the previous 12 years was 5.5 games. Using a statistical t-test, we can conclude that there is a 99.7% chance of these results being significantly different from each other. This provides compelling evidence that the path to the finals has been substantially faster over recent years.
What About all the Blowouts?
The other likely measure of competitiveness in the playoffs would be the average margin of victory. For example, if every game in a year was decided by 20+ points, then it would lack games that are competitive all the way until the very end. Conversely, if all games came down to the wire and are only decided by a handful of points, then as a whole the playoffs would be incredibly competitive.
To take a look at how the margin of victory has changed over the past many years, we can look at the results dating back to 1998. The average margin of victory has mostly been fluctuating somewhere between 10 and 12 points over these years, with the exception of the 2016 and the 2017 playoffs, which were 14.2 and 13.6 points respectively. Besides simply pointing out the fact that these numbers are higher than usual, we can obtain a true understanding of their importance by putting them to a statistical test for significance.
When compared with a standard statistical t-test, there is only a .3% chance of the disparity that occurred between the 2016-2017 and 1998–2015 playoffs happening without a significant statistical difference. This provides very strong evidence that the wider point margins in the playoff games of the last two years were not merely the result of year-to-year natural fluctuation. Given the fact that the games were being won by more points on average, it is safe to assume that games on average were also less competitive. It appears that based on the changes in the margin of victory and the number of wins it took for the top teams to reach the finals, the playoffs have essentially been going in a less competitive direction in the last several years.
We can see even more clearly the extent to which 2017 was significantly less competitive if we look at a graph comparing both previously mentioned factors by year. Most previous years are clustered together, with a slight downward slope. 2017 clearly stands out on this graph, far and away the lowest of the pack in terms of number of playoff games, and also much higher in terms of margin of victory than any year except 2016. This demonstrates that the 2017 playoffs combined a quick path to the finals for the top teams and a large average disparity on a game by game basis. This made for a playoff run that was significantly less competitive than the many before it.
Then Why Isn’t the NBA Changing the Playoff Structure?
Due to the decrease in competitiveness, there have been many calls for the NBA to change the format of the playoffs. So why haven’t they done it? At the end of the day, the NBA is a business just like any other business. What this means is that their decisions are governed by what affects their profit line above all else. Two main factors matter for the NBA in the playoffs: the overall number of games played and the viewership ratings. Teams can earn several million dollars per playoff game in ticket sales alone, and the NBA takes a 25% cut of those earnings. Also, viewership ratings are essential to the formation of the large contracts that the NBA signs with television organizations. Without a doubt, the NBA recognizes that millions of dollars are at stake due to these two variables. Unless these variables are declining and revenue is falling, the NBA is truly not motivated to make a change.
So, are the numbers going down? Well, the number of overall playoff games played has been fluctuating on a yearly basis without any significant downward trend over time. In fact, the average margin of victory for a year has essentially no correlation with the total number of playoff games. Also, ESPN reports that playoff viewership was up 5% last year even with the seeming lack of competition. Both of these signs point to the fact that a decrease in close competition in the playoffs does not give the NBA cause for concern. Essentially, even a pointed decrease in the competitive levels of the NBA playoffs, as we saw in recent years (especially 2017), does not give the NBA a compelling reason to change the playoff format as it stands.
