NBA Off-Season Story Lines

June 12, 2017 marked the end of the 2016–2017 NBA Season as the clock ran out, the confetti fell from the rafters, and Kevin Durant skipped around the court celebrating his first NBA Championship. This Warriors team won 67 games and made a mockery of the playoffs by posting the highest playoff win percentage ever going 16–1 with an average point differential of +13.5. Obviously the Warriors had to prove their status on the court but many (accurately) believed that the Warriors won this title 11 months earlier on July 4th, 2016 when Kevin Durant decided to take his talents to the Bay Area.

The NBA has proven to have the most exciting, or at least active, off-season of the major sports. We have seen that the competitive landscape can be drastically altered by stars changing teams, franchises pulling the trigger on big trades, and front office hiring and firings.

With the draft this Thursday, there has already been a lot of action. There was a big trade between the Celtics and 76ers with the teams swapping first round picks and Boston receiving other future first round picks. We have also heard Paul George confirm he will not return to Indiana next year. As we approach the draft and free agency here are some of the main story lines you need to watch for.

Paul George

George has now confirmed that he will not be returning to Indiana after this season (not a huge surprise), so the question now becomes on how soon and where will Indiana move him? George is one of the league’s best wings and a franchise changing player. There have already been rumors that the Pacers have approached Cleveland about a trade possibility. This would likely involve Cleveland moving Kevin Love to alter their big three to LeBron, George, and Irving. While the thought process has been that George will go to the Lakers after this year, he may end up preferring playing with LeBron and for championships in Cleveland. If the Lakers are worried that they will be unable to woo him in free agency, I wouldn’t be surprised if they came in with a big offer of some of their young prospects (Randle and Russell) and some draft picks. George being upfront and honest about his intentions this early will likely see him shipped out of Indiana. Now the question is where?

Draft

The draft is where teams build for the future by drafting players to develop or by acquiring assets to trade for established veterans. We have already seen a huge trade involving the Celtics and 76ers swapping first round picks (Celtics will also receive some future draft picks depending on protections). The 76ers will be drafting Markelle Fultz to fit in next to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid creating, arguably, the most promising young core in the league.

On Boston’s side though it is a little unclear what their intentions are. All reports are that the Celtics had Fultz, Ball, Jackson, and Tatum as similarly rated prospects. This may be a case where the Celtics looked to acquire more assets (pretty common strategy for them over the past few years) while still being able to take a guy they see as extremely talented. This wouldn’t surprise me and isn’t a bad result but I believe that they will be trying to move the pick for a player like Jimmy Butler. Some reports indicate that the 76ers and Bulls were in talks about moving the third pick for Butler. Now that the Celtics own that pick (and have been linked to Butler multiple times) we could see a big name player on the move. With how deep this draft is I would expect that we will see a lot of movement with teams trading down, others falling in love with a prospect, and questionable decisions that will drive fans crazy.

Chris Paul

Chris Paul will be the biggest name free agent this summer after he exercises his player option to opt out of the last year of his contract with the Clippers. He will be a highly coveted leader for just about every team out there. There have been rumblings that Paul is interested in joining the Spurs. This would be a deadly combo adding one of the best point guards ever to the Popovich machine in San Antonio. While fitting Paul in on the court would likely not be an issue, fitting him into the salary cap will take quite a bit of work. At age 32, this is Paul’s last chance to sign for a max deal at 5 years $205 million which only the Clippers can offer him. If he decides to change teams, the most he can sign is a 4 year deal for $152 million (losing out on $53 million). Paul may be using the Spurs to just get a no-trade clause in his contract but after constant postseason disappointments, he could easily be leaving the Clippers. If Paul does leave, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Blake Griffin also decided to change teams as well. Look for what Paul decides as it could make the Spurs a huge threat to the Warriors or keep the Clippers relevant in the playoffs.

Gordon Hayward

Hayward had a great 2016–17 season as he continued his yearly improvement and earned his first All-Star selection by leading the Jazz back to the playoffs. Hayward has played a huge role in revitalizing this Jazz franchise as he averaged 22.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and a win share of 10.4 this season. Despite being a cornerstone of the Jazz culture, playing with one of the league’s best centers, and having one of the league’s best coaches, Hayward could easily leave. Most people have assumed Boston will be the destination for Hayward mainly due to his connection with Coach Brad Stevens (Stevens coached Hayward at Butler and recruited him out of high school when Hayward was undersized and mostly unknown). Hayward would also give the Celtics another offensive option besides Isaiah Thomas while still providing high level defense.

However, like every off-season, Miami is becoming more serious contenders for Hayward. Miami has proven that they can get more out of their players than almost any other team after they almost made the playoffs after an abysmal start and a roster full of D-Leaguers. Hayward will need to decide if he wants to stay with the Jazz and the culture he helped build, reunite with Brad Stevens and join an instant contender in the East, or take his talents to South Beach and join the proven track record of Riley and Spoelstra.

Warriors

The Warriors won’t have to lose their main core for another few years, but they will need to worry about bringing back key role players. Andre Igoudala and Shaun Livingston are free agents this year and will not be cheap. While these guys are not the stars like Curry, Durant, Green, or Thompson, they are still extremely important to the team. They have helped instill the culture, they can defend multiple positions at a high level, and they always come up with big baskets when needed. Igoudala will look around but due to his role on the team and off-court interests I will expect that he will return. Livingston, however, will be able to earn his first big contract. Due to a horrific injury a few years ago that almost ended his career; he has been very cheap for the Warriors. There will be teams out there that will be able to offer him more than the Warriors can and it will be hard to turn down millions. It will be fascinating to see how the Warriors retool these role player roster spots over the next few years as they look to continue their dominating run.

Front Office Moves

While these aren’t always the most exciting or flashiest moves, they can be some of the most important. Front offices are usually where the culture and direction of the team begins to take shape. These can range from the Spurs level of professionalism and consistency to the Knicks level of delusion and incompetency. We have already seen John Hammond leave Milwaukee for Orlando and Jerry West leave the Warriors for the Clippers. While West signed on as an advisor, I believe that this is a sign of Ballmer’s patience wearing extremely thin with Doc Rivers unimpressive front office work. Another name to note is David Griffin in Cleveland. Griffin has done a great job of putting together championship level teams in Cleveland but the fact that there isn’t confirmation of a deal in place for the future at this point is definitely strange.