NBA Player Preview: Atlantic Division
For anyone reading this article, they are well aware that the NBA season is just around the corner. NBA regular season hoops is close enough we can taste it. We can hear the hum of Zach Lowe podcasts, and feel our palms getting sweaty in advance of our favorite team’s matchup with the Golden State Warriors. The regular season officially tips off October 25, and as such, we are in the midst of NBA preview season. For my contribution to all the chatter, I’m looking for one breakout/statistical darling for each team that might not be on the average fan’s radar. If you’re a Suns fan, then you know that Devin Booker averaged over 19 points a game after the All-Star Break last season. If you’re a Nuggets fan, then you know Nikola Jokic was quietly the ninth-most valuable player in the NBA last season, according to ESPN’s real plus-minus. But the NBA season is long, and you’re dedicated to your own squad, so sometimes these players slip through the cracks. I’ll be going through each team, and selecting one such player for each team, in hopes of getting the readers even more excited for the NBA season. If that’s possible. Today we look at the Atlantic Division.
Brooklyn Nets
Bojan Bogdanovic (Breakout)
We begin with one of the mightiest tasks any NBA writer has this season: Finding a positive note for the 2016–17 Brooklyn Nets. But even the darkness has arms. Bogdanovic will be in his third season in the NBA, and has shown improvements during his two years with the Nets. In his rookie season of 2014–15, Bogdanovic tallied 9.0 points a game in 23.8 minutes per game. In 2015–16, he averaged 11.2 points in 26.8 minutes per game. In the second half of 2015–16, Bogdanovic averaged 15.1 points in 28.0 minutes per game. There is a distinct arc there, and a favorable one for the 6’ 8” forward from Bosnia and Herzegovina. The best news for Nets fans is that Bogdan fits perfectly into the way the NBA is trending. He traditionally plays the 3, but can move up and play a small ball 4, and one who can stretch the floor with aplomb. For his career, Bogdanovic owns an effective field goal percentage of 52.5 percent. For perspective, that figure would have ranked 30th in the NBA in 2015–16, ahead of names like Chris Paul, Andre Drummond, Kyle Lowry, and James Harden. Just under half of Bogdanovic’s shot attempts in his two seasons with the Nets have been three-pointers, and since he is hitting those at a 37 percent clip, he is exceptionally efficient of offense. Bogdan is never going to be a shutdown defender, but if he can continue his 40 percent three-point shooting from the second half of last season (his three-point percentage has trended up his entire NBA career), this could easily be a player who averages 15–18 points a game. A valuable commodity, to be sure.
Boston Celtics
Kelly Olynyk (Statistical darling)
As much as we might all still hate Olynyk for ripping Kevin Love’s shoulder out in the 2014–15 postseason, and robbing us of a first great Cavs-Warriors matchup, it might be time to bury the hatchet and admit he’s got some actual game. “Green Jesus,” as Bill Simmons is fond of calling him, Olynyk ranks surprisingly high among many of the point differential metrics floating around the NBA statistical atmosphere right now. By net rating on NBA.com, he was the top Celtic (20 games played minimum) in 2015–16. Olynyk had a net rating of 5.2, meaning that when he was on the court, the Celtics were five points better than their opponents, per 100 possessions, for the season. A lot of that value came from his work on the defensive end. With a defensive rating of 97.7, he trailed only R.J. Hunter on the Celtics, and Hunter only played in 36 games. Olynyk was above-average at opponent field goal percent at each spot on the floor, holding opponents to 58.7 percent from inside of six feet (107th of 329); 51.7 percent inside of ten feet (71st of 329); and 32.7 percent outside of 15 feet (32nd of 329). Clearly, Olynyk was very successful stopping other teams from being able to stretch the floor when he was the Celtics big man. It isn’t just the NBA.com tracking stats that like Olynyk, though. ESPN’s real plus-minus had him as the 32nd-best player in the league last season, and the 44th-best defender. Pairing with Al Horford is only going to help Olynyk improve even more on the defensive end this year, and while many think of the Celtics as a run-and-gun team, their defense is going to be essential to their success this season.
New York Knicks
Lance Thomas (Breakout + statistical darling)
No, Lance Thomas is not going to be the next league MVP. In fact, the “breakout + statistical darling” label is more because he doesn’t quite fully qualify for either, then that he is a guru of both. But New York, a bit like their Brooklyn brethren are a strange team in 2016–17. They are full of old players who can’t really breakout (Carmelo, D-Rose, Joakim Noah), young players New York, as a city, is already way to hype on (PorzinGOD), guys who we just know nothing about at the NBA level (Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Guillermo Hernangomez), and Brandon Jennings (no Jennings will not be good this season). I thought about Cleanthony Early, because I really like his game, but I just don’t see him carving out enough minutes in a roster that is this much of a cluster F. Same goes for Justin Holliday. Courtney Lee and Kyle O’Quinn offer intrigue, but neither would really be that surprising if they were successful, and don’t have that high of a floor versus ceiling. That leaves Thomas. And he’s a good fit. Thomas came over to the Knicks from the Thunder midway through the 2014–15 season, and hasn’t quite made the jump some thought he might in an expanded role. In 2015–16, he averaged 8.2 points per game in just 59 games and five starts for the Knicks. However, he was the Knicks best rotation player by net rating, and the team did significantly better with him in the lineup (.424 winning percentage) than with him out of it (.304 winning percentage). Thomas is 6’ 8” and if (more likely when) Noah gets injured, the possibility of a starting five that includes Thomas and Anthony as the 3 and 4 with Porzingis as the 5, is a fun thought for Knicks fans. A lineup led with D-Rose and Lee in the backcourt, with those three as the big men would have tons of shooting, and is my early guess for the best five-man lineup for the Knicks this season. Hopefully for Knicks fans, this lineup actually gets a chance to get some run from head coach, Jeff Hornacek.
Philadelphia 76ers
Richaun Holmes (Statistical darling)
Here is where I out myself as an NBA hipster. Holmes is definitely getting some of the “Yeah, Joel Embiid is cool, but check out this dude who averaged less than six points in less than 14 minutes a game last season” buzz, but honestly, check him out. With Ben Simmons out for a while, there’s a bit more space in the frontcourt, but Holmes will still have to impress to earn his playing time. And with three-game averages of 16.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in the preseason, Holmes is doing just that. If we put our fancy stat pants back on, he also was the highest-rated 76er (min. 20 games), by net rating, in 2015–16. The 76er offense clicked best with Holmes on the court, scoring 102.3 points per 100 possessions with Holmes on the court, for a team that scored just 96.6 points per 100 possessions, as a whole. Holmes was also the top offensive 76er by ESPN’s real plus-minus, and he was second in offensive rating, on NBA-Reference. When that many indicators point towards Holmes being one of, if not the, best offensive contributor on the team, it’s fair to say Holmes is worth a look in 2016–17.
Toronto Raptors
Delon Wright (Breakout)
So far all of what you have read has been highly statistically-based. I’ve used NBA.com, NBA-Reference, and ESPN to paint portraits of the players most likely to breakout, and/or continue to contribute in an under-the-radar fashion. Well put aside those stats for a second, and let’s take a journey to the Land of Gut Calls. Forget the fact that Wright is out until December with a shoulder injury. Forget the fact that in his rookie season, Wright did quite little, playing less than 10 minutes a game. Forget the fact that he backs up the Face of the Franchise in Kyle Lowry, and one of the best backup PGs in the league in Cory Joseph, and imagine a world in which the University of Utah point guard dominates the league. Wright was one of the most fun players in college basketball during his time with the Utes, putting up Evan Turner/Josh Smith-type lines in which he would score 17 points, pull down 10 rebounds, dish out seven assists, nab seven steals, and block three shots. That stat line actually happened. It was in Wright’s first-ever college basketball game. That’s a real, true sentence. How is it possible that this guy doesn’t, at some point, become the living embodiment of Josh Smith mixed with Andrei Kirilenko mixed with a point guard? Maybe it won’t be in 2016–17, and maybe it won’t be with Toronto, but it has to happen at some point.
