NFL Week 7 Predictions
Marc Delucchi gives his predictions for every NFL game in Week 7 with probabilities and adjusted break-even betting lines.
Every year, I enjoy making NFL individual game predictions. Over the last few seasons, FiveThirtyEight has run a prediction contest that allowed individuals to compete against each other and their ELO model. Last season marked the first time I participated, but I finished in the 97th percentile among all competitors.
I’m generally skittish about making official predictions early in the season because I tend to embarrass myself. However, now that every team has played at least five games, and FiveThirtyEight discontinued their series this season, I’ve decided to bring my predictions to Medium.
The rules are simple, pick the winner of every game. However, I will evaluate myself on three different metrics — first, a standard Win-Loss record based on my picks. Second, I’ll give the percentage chance I give every favorite of winning and use FiveThirtyEight’s weighted scoring system. Third, I’ll keep track of how a hypothetical bet of $100 would pan out whenever my probability differs more than 10% from Caesers’ implied betting line.
Week 7 Predictions
New York Giants (1–5) at Philadelphia Eagles (1–4–1)
In the Thursday Night matchup, two NFC East car wrecks square off. Both have been questionably coached, but the Eagles are more talented even with their long list of injuries. Plus, Carson Wentz has started showing more consistent flashes over the last couple of weeks. Given the disarray in the NFC East, Wentz returning to top form would easily carry Philly to the postseason.
Pick: Eagles (Probability to win: 80% Break-even betting line: -400)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5–0) at Tennessee Titans (5–0)
If Ryan Tannehill had been some anonymous NCAA quarterback drafted in the 6th round of the 2019 NFL Draft before last season, we’d probably be talking about him at the upper echelon of quarterbacks, behind Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Of course, we have his years with the Miami Dolphins making things difficult. With Titans starting left tackle Taylor Lewan out for the season, things will undoubtedly be harder. Both teams have strong defenses, but Tannehill and Derrick Henry are superior to Ben Roethlisberger and James Conner. That should be the difference.
Pick: Titans (55% -122)
Dallas Cowboys (2–4) at Washington Football Team (1–5)
Andy Dalton looked terrible in Monday Night’s embarrassment against the Cardinals, but it’s one game. He’s probably still a mediocre-competent starter. Washington is a bad team and Dalton is in good position for a bounce-back game. Even with all the chaos inside the locker room in Dallas, Washington lacks the ability to counter punch.
Pick: Cowboys (70% -233)
Buffalo Bills (4–2) at New York Jets (0–6)
Allen could have his best game of the year, and #BillsMafia will try to use it to prove his MVP case, but I think a bad regression game is just as likely where a couple of turnovers and bad play make it competitive for longer than it should be. Still, it’s the Jets. Duh.
Pick: Bills (90% -900)
Carolina Panthers (3–3) at New Orleans Saints (3–2)
The Saints and 49ers entered the season as co-NFC favorites, and even as they’ve stumbled out of the gate, I’m still bullish on both of their prospects. Granted, I’m ready to overreact to a strong couple of games but am tentative for the time being. The Saints are coming off a bye and need a strong showing against a well-coached Panthers team that lacks top-end talent. Carolina can probably keep it close, but unless Drew Brees is truly washed up, it’s New Orleans’ game to lose.
Pick: Saints (65% -185)
Green Bay Packers (4–1) at Houston Texans (1–5)
Houston has the better quarterback, and with O’Brien gone, are actually well-positioned for a late-season run at .500. They are a scaled-down Seahawks across the board. It’s mediocre talent with some decent receivers and a star quarterback. The Packers will probably be very focused on a strong game coming off their blowout loss to the Bucs, but I don’t think this team is as good as they played early in the year.
Upset Pick: Texans (52% -108)
Cleveland Browns (4–2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1–4–1)
I want to call the Browns pretenders enough to pick the Bengals, but Cincinnati is not very good. Cleveland isn’t a great team but have taken advantage of weak early-season competition. The Browns won 35–30 in their first matchup of the season, but I don’t think this one will be as close.
Pick: Browns (60% -149)
Detroit Lions (2–3) at Atlanta Falcons (1–5)
Talk about a dumpster fire meeting a trash heap. The Lions probably could be good if they weren’t coached by one of the worst head coaches in football. Neither defense is remotely competent, but I think Atlanta’s offense has been better and will make the difference.
Pick: Falcons (54% -117)
Seattle Seahawks (5–0) at Arizona Cardinals (4–2)
I’m not high on any of the remaining undefeated teams, but I especially think the Seahawks are getting far too much hype. Their expected win-loss record by point differential is 3–2, and that’s against a relatively weak schedule. With that said, the Cardinals have piled it on against a lifeless Dallas team and the Jets. Coming off a short week against a Seahawks team benefiting from a bye won’t make their lives any easier.
Pick: Seahawks (57% -132)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1–5) at Los Angeles Chargers (1–4)
The Jaguars easily have one of the least talented rosters in the NFL, while the Chargers continue to fail to turn their talented roster into a competitor. Still, since Justin Herbert has taken over as the Chargers quarterback, they’ve pushed the Chiefs and Saints to overtime, blew a 4th quarter lead against the Bucs, and fell to the Panthers. Except for their matchup against Carolina, those are three of the best teams in football. Coming off a bye week, LA should dominate this game.
Pick: Chargers (75% -300)
San Francisco 49ers (3–3) at New England Patriots (2–3)
The injuries have piled up for the 49ers, but they found the blueprint for their defense to become elite again last week. San Francisco has struggled against mobile quarterbacks, but I think they’ll have an effective enough gameplan for Cam Newton. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and Pats head coach Bill Belichick obviously have plenty of experience with each other, which probably favors New England. Still, even with their injuries, the 49ers are talented. I‘m going with the underdog on the road. If they pull it off, they’ll likely be my pick to end Seattle’s undefeated start to the season next week.
Pick: 49ers (58% -138)
Kansas City Chiefs (5–1) at Denver Broncos (2–3)
Who’s going to bet against Patrick Mahomes? The Broncos lack the firepower to keep up and their defense just isn’t the same without Von Miller. Still, they’re a competent football team that could make it interesting if they get a couple of the right breaks.
Pick: Chiefs (78% -370)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3–2)
The Bucs have one of the most talented rosters in football, but Tom Brady has yet to find his groove. Since I was already low on Green Bay, their impressive win last week didn’t move the needle for me as much as it did for others. The fact is Tampa’s offense relies on throwing deep and Brady just can’t do that effectively. I think they’re right there with the Saints, Seahawks, and 49ers at the top of the conference, but Brady has to be able to throw downfield. Coming off a bye week, Jon Gruden should have plenty of tricks up his sleeves, and has a decent shot of pulling the upset.
Pick: Buccaneers (58% -138)
Chicago Bears (5–1) at Los Angeles Rams (4–2)
Umm… do we know how good the Rams are yet? They look a solid squad that’s benefited from playing the NFC East in four of their first six games. The Bears have benefited from a weak early-season schedule as well, and have held most opponents below 20 points. However, Tampa Bay’s plethora of weapons was shutdown by Chicago. The Rams are the better team, but the Bears defense plus Nick Foles’ high-variance make this far closer to a toss-up in my eyes than most betting lines.
Pick: Rams (55% -122)
This Week’s Bet Picks
Cowboys -120, Bears +230, Texans +165, 49ers +110, Eagles -230
