Real Offensive Rating, and The 25 Best Offensive Players of the 2021/2022 NBA Playoffs
First and foremost, I must accredit much of what I’m about to write to Adam Fromal, a brilliant basketball mind, who wrote an article for Bleacher Report ten years ago detailing an idea he had about creating an improved method of rating Guards offensive performance from AST/TOV ratio.
Adam called his new stat Play Maker Rating (PlayRtg) and used the formula as follows:
“PlayRtg = USG*(PPG+2.26*APG-TPG)/(FGA+0.44*FTA+APG+TPG) where USG = Usage Rate, APG = Assists Per Game, PPG = Points Per Game, TPG = Turnovers Per Game, FGA = Field Goal Attempts Per Game, FTA = Free Throw Attempts Per Game”
For further information on Adam’s multiplier calculations, please reference his original article cited above. (Everyone say thank you, Adam!!)
Adam’s great idea got me thinking — this was an incredibly forward way of measuring point guards, and the way the game has further evolved in a position-less direction invites the idea that it may not be far off from a great way of measuring offensive rating across all players…
What was missing from this formula that could more holistically quantify a players offensive output? Offensive Rebounds (ORB). Specifically, the amount of points that may be created in any given possession from a player grabbing an ORB.
The Athletic tells us that an ORB is worth 1.22 points added. This makes it relatively easy to add into the PlayRtg formula, as there’s no need to offset the outcome of a missed ORB as relates to offensive production. Thus, after adding ORB into the PlayRtg formula, I’ve created what I call Real Offensive Rating (ROr). The new formula is as follows:
ROr=USG*(PPG+1.22*ORB+2.26*APG-TPG)/(FGA+0.44*FTA+APG+TPG)
Now, finally, pertaining to the 2021/2022 NBA Playoffs, I’ve applied this formula to all players who qualify under the following two conditions:
Played in a Minimum of 8 games (advanced to the second round)
Average a Minimum of 25 Minutes Per Game.
The Top 25 Offensive Players of the 2021/2022 NBA Playoffs:
25: Dillon Brooks, SF, Memphis Grizzlies
ROr: 23.09
GP: 11, MPG: 30.4, USG: 25.1%, PPG: 14.6, FGA: 15.6, ORB: 1.3, A/Tr: 1.4
24: Bam Adebayo, C, Miami Heat
ROr: 23.26
GP: 18, MPG: 34.1, USG: 17.9%, PPG: 14.8, FGA: 9.7, ORB: 2.1, A/Tr: 1.3
23: Tobais Harris, PF, Philadelphia 76ers
ROr: 23.45
GP: 12, MPG: 38.8, USG: 19.1%, PPG: 16.9, FGA: 13.5, ORB: 0.8, A/Tr: 1.9
22: Andrew Wiggins, SF, Golden State Warriors
ROr: 25.28
GP: 22, MPG: 34.8, USG: 20.8%, PPG: 16.5, FGA: 13.8, ORB: 2.5, A/Tr: 1.3
21: Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors
ROr: 25.31
GP: 22, MPG: 36.0, USG: 22.7%, PPG: 19.1, FGA: 16.7, ORB: 0.3, A/Tr: 1.8
20: Marcus Smart, PG, Boston Celtics
ROr: 25.35
GP: 21, MPG: 36.2, USG: 21.2%, PPG: 15.4, FGA: 13.3, ORB: 1.0, A/Tr: 2.37
19: Tyler Herro, SG, Miami Heat
ROr: 26.11
GP: 15, MPG: 25.4, USG: 25.7%, PPG: 12.6, FGA: 12.1, ORB: 0.5, A/Tr: 1.6
18: Jaren Jackson Jr., PF, Memphis Grizzlies
ROr: 26.27
GP: 12, MPG: 27.7, USG: 24.2%, PPG: 15.4, FGA: 13.0, ORB: 2.2, A/Tr: 0.7
17: Tyrese Maxey, PG, Philadelphia 76ers
ROr: 27.37
GP: 12, MPG: 40.4, USG: 21.8%, PPG: 20.8, FGA: 15.2, ORB: 0.5, A/Tr: 2.2
16: Jrue Holiday, PG, Milwaukee Bucks
ROr: 28.25
GP: 12, MPG: 38.6, USG: 26.4%, PPG: 19.1, FGA: 19.6, ORB: 1.0, A/Tr: 2.3
15: Spencer Dinwiddie, PG, Dallas Mavericks
ROr: 28.67
GP: 18, MPG: 27.8, USG: 23.7%, PPG: 14.2, FGA: 10.7, ORB: 0.4, A/Tr: 2.2
14: James Harden, SG, Philadelphia 76ers
ROr: 28.86
GP: 12, MPG: 39.9, USG: 23.7%, PPG: 18.6, FGA: 13.2, ORB: 0.9, A/Tr: 2.06
13: Chris Paul, PG, Pheonix Suns
ROr: 30.10
GP: 13, MPG: 34.5, USG: 20.8%, PPG: 17.5, FGA: 11.9, ORB: 0.5, A/Tr: 3.5
12: Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, Boston Celtics
ROr: 30.18
GP: 24, MPG: 38.3, USG: 26.9%, PPG: 23.1, FGA: 17.5, ORB: 1.4, A/Tr: 1.2
11: Jordan Poole, SG, Golden State Warriors
ROr: 30.30
GP: 22, MPG: 27.6, USG: 24.5%, PPG: 17.0, FGA: 11.6, ORB: 0.5, A/Tr: 1.6
10: Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
ROr: 31.08
GP: 10, MPG: 38.5, USG: 28.4%, PPG: 23.6, FGA: 16.1, ORB: 2.1, A/Tr: 0.7
9: Deandre Ayton, C, Phoenix Suns
ROr: 31.65
GP: 13, MPG: 30.5, USG: 22.9%, PPG: 17.9, FGA: 12.6, ORB: 2.5, A/Tr: 1.2
8: Jayson Tatum, SF, Boston Celtics
ROr: 32.73
GP: 24, MPG: 40.9, USG: 29.6%, PPG: 25.6, FGA: 19.7, ORB: 1.0, A/Tr: 1.5
7: Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns
ROr: 32.94
GP: 10, MPG: 36.6, USG: 28.9%, PPG: 23.3, FGA: 17.5, ORB: 1.0, A/Tr: 1.4
6: Jalen Brunson, PG, Dallas Mavericks
ROr: 34.19
GP: 18, MPG: 34.9, USG: 27.8%, PPG: 21.6, FGA: 17.3, ORB: 0.8, A/Tr: 3.5
5: Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
ROr: 38.36
GP: 9, MPG: 37.6, USG: 30.8%, PPG: 27.1, FGA: 20.4, ORB: 1.4, A/Tr: 2.8
4: Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors
ROr: 39.59
GP: 22, MPG: 34.7, USG: 31.8%, PPG: 27.4, FGA: 20.0, ORB: 0.5, A/Tr: 2.3
3: Jimmy Butler, SF, Miami Heat
ROr: 39.69
GP: 17, MPG: 37.0, USG: 29.1%, PPG: 27.4, FGA: 19.3, ORB: 2.4, A/Tr: 3.1
2: Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
ROr: 43.51
GP: 12, MPG: 37.3, USG: 38.5%, PPG: 31.7, FGA: 23.8, ORB: 2.2, A/Tr: 1.5
1: Luka Doncic, PG, Dallas Mavericks
ROr: 46.06
GP: 15, MPG: 36.8, USG: 40.4%, PPG: 31.7, FGA: 23.5, ORB: 0.7, A/Tr: 1.6
DISCLAIMER: Naturally, some big names were left off this list as a result — so please understand that this isn’t an argument for one player being a better offensive player than another, rather a measurement on a very specific set of data aimed at understanding the offensive impact that a player had within the controlled parameters. There will be hurt feelings here (especially to my fellow die-hard Bostonian’s… sorry!!).
