Use March Madness History to Build a Perfect 2022 Second Chance Bracket
All those upsets sure screwed our brackets, but there’s still time to right the ship and figure out this wacky March Madness…
OKAY, SO YOUR 2022 MARCH MADNESS BRACKET IS ALREADY BUSTED. Blame Kentucky or Auburn or Tennessee, or maybe just blame the SEC in general. And don’t think we’re letting the Big 10 off the hook either — looking at you, Wisconsin and Illinois! So maybe your bracket is totally busted, or perhaps you’re narrowing down Survivor pool options or joining a Second Chance bracket. Whatever the reason, you’ve come to the right place.
Last week, history gave us all sorts of great bracket tips. It warned us to stay away from Wisconsin and Tennessee, told us to be wary of Baylor, and suggested Michigan and Iowa State as dangerous underdogs. It didn’t warn us about those St. Peter’s Peacocks upsetting Kentucky, but that’s why they call it madness! Turns out we can learn quite a bit from school and conference history, coaches’ performance, seed expectations, geography, and even preseason rankings— almost as much as from the teams themselves.
So with the field narrowed to a 16, let’s run it back and see if we can build the perfect Second Chance bracket with history as our guide. What can we learn about the Sweet Sixteen and the rest of March Madness going forward?
WEST REGION
(1) Gonzaga vs (4) Arkansas
Another bracket, another big Gonzaga decision. You can check last week’s article for the bulk of the history on Gonzaga as a 1-seed, but a few reminders:
- As a 1-seed this decade, Gonzaga has lost in the second round, Elite 8, and twice in the title game (all on one-day prep)
- Mark Few is still only 8–10 after the second round with two Final 4s
- Last year’s Gonzaga was the first #1 overall seed to make the Final Four in 7 tourneys, and the #1 overall hasn’t won it all since 2012 (Kentucky)
- Past 1-seed mid-majors went 22–8, averaging an Elite 8 exit with only 2 Final Fours in 8 tries and no non-power conference champion since 1990
History tells us to be wary of assuming the #1 overall seed will go all the way, and that these non-power conference 1-seeds always fall short of glory. It’s just incredibly difficult to always have the biggest target on your back.
That said, history really likes Gonzaga’s chances to win at least once more. We obviously get a lot of these Sweet 16 games between a 1-seed and a 4- or 5-seed, and 1s are absolutely dominant. They’re 88–25 all-time, winning 78% of the time including 18 wins in a row right now. Non-power conference 1-seeds are a perfect 6–0 in these matchups too.
Arkansas has won 17 of 20 games and lost by more than five only once in 2022, but the Hogs eked out wins over 12- and 13-seeds last weekend and the Zags are really good. Gonzaga is #1 overall in KenPom by a wide margin — they’re further ahead of #2 than #2 is ahead of #14. The Hogs love to play fast, and that plays right into Gonzaga’s hands. They’re at their best playing fast, and faster games mean more possessions which means more opportunities for the better team to be, well, better.
If you’re wondering what sort of team could take Gonzaga down, you’re looking for a team like St. Mary’s, who beat the Zags late. That opponent will slowww the game down and play solid defense and efficient offense, limiting possessions and hoping to match score for score. Texas Tech fits that profile best in this region, though their offense is lacking, while UCLA and Villanova are the two toughest stylistic opponents for Gonzaga overall. We saw last year in the Final Four how tough UCLA’s style was on Gonzaga.
(2) Duke vs (3) Texas Tech
This is the most common Sweet 16 matchup, and while you probably assume 2v3 is a coin flip, history says otherwise. The 2-seeds are 34–21 in this matchup, winning 62% of the time. In other words, 2s are as close to winning two-thirds of the time as they are to being 50/50. Put another way, 3s would need to win the next 13 times for this to be a coin-flip matchup.
That said, the gap is closing. Over the last decade, 2-seeds are 9–7 in this matchup, still favored but only one wrong result from that coin flip you were expecting. There’s one odd glitch about these matchups. You’d expect a tough, close battle in these 2v3 games, but 8 of the last 10 have been won by double digits. Over the past decade, only 2 of 14 games of this type have been closer than nine points.
History says the 2-seed is favored here and might win by more than you think, so that would favor Duke, but many advanced metrics think Texas Tech is actually the better team. Vegas agrees, making Tech the favorite. That might be in part because of a weekend injury to Duke wing A.J. Griffin, a possible top-5 draft pick. The key matchup here is Duke’s top-10 offense against Texas Tech’s top-5 defense.
It’s worth remembering Duke’s history as a top seed. Duke is nearly invincible as a 1-seed with four titles in 14 tries. But as a 2- or 3-seed, Duke is just 39–15 with one title and no Final Fours since 1994, and only even one Elite 8 since then. Coach K is 45–13 in tourney games with one day of prep. Conventional wisdom suggests Duke losing to Gonzaga in a classic Elite 8 battle, but history says Duke would be more likely to win that game than you think — but is also more likely to fall before getting the opportunity.
WEST ANALYSIS
With all four top seeds remaining, there’s a ton of history we could use to analyze the Elite 8 matchups. A few notes on possible matchups:
- Gonzaga vs Duke: 1-seeds are 35–30 all-time against 2-seeds, not far from a coin flip. In Elite 8 games, 1-seeds are 23–24 against 2-seeds. History shrugs its shoulders at 1v2 matchups. Anything goes.
- Gonzaga vs Texas Tech: 1-seeds are 22–14 against 3s, winning 61% of the time, and even better lately. They’ve won 14 of the last 17 times, with 11 of those wins by seven or more points.
- Arkansas vs either team: When a 4- or 5-seed plays a 2- or 3-seed, the better seed is an ugly 6–14. The underdog has won 70% of them, including 8 of the last 9. They’re especially good against 2-seeds at 9–3. These favorites let their guard down when a 1-seed doesn’t show.
Gonzaga is the favorite, but not by as much as you’d think. The Zags are probably safer than you expect against Arkansas, but a bunch of historical red flags put them at risk in the Elite 8. It’s probably not a great idea to bank on Arkansas here, since they’re the one team that’s guaranteed to face the best team in the tournament, but don’t rule out Duke or Tech in this region.
Gonzaga 46%
Texas Tech 23%
Duke 21%
Arkansas 10%
EAST REGION
(4) UCLA vs (8) North Carolina
It’s still rare for the 1-seed to get knocked out before the Sweet 16. It’s only happened 17 times in the modern tournament, about once every two years. You’d think the absence of a 1-seed in the Sweet 16 should be great news for the teams in the rest of the bracket, but it hasn’t always gone that way.
Instead, history tells us that 8- or 9-seeds who beat the 1-seed are dangerous. They’re actually 10–7 in the Sweet 16 against 4- and 5-seeds, a winning record despite being the underdog every game. That includes 2014 Kentucky, 2013 Wichita State, 2011 Butler, 2002 Wisconsin, 2002 UNC, and 1985 Villanova all making the Final Four as an 8 or 9-seed. Three of those teams even made the title game, and Villanova won it.
History says 8s and 9s who pull that big 1-seed upset should be treated more like a 4- or 5-seed going forward. KenPom agrees, rating North Carolina as a top-20 team. That should put UCLA on high alert and suggests this could be more a coin-flip game than a mismatch. However, KenPom also thinks UCLA is underrated. The Bruins rank top-13 in the nation in both offense and defense and profile much stronger than their seed too, closer to a 2-seed.
UCLA is the right favorite here, but both of these teams are dangerous. The winner here could easily make the Final Four.
(3) Purdue vs (15) St. Peter’s
History doesn’t tell us much about 3v15 matchups since St. Peter’s is just the third 15-seed to make the Sweet 16. The previous two 15s lost in the Sweet 16 to 3-seeds, though Oral Roberts lost by only two last year.
Still, even after wins over very good Kentucky and Murray State teams, St. Peter’s is the worst team left in the bracket by a wide margin. The Peacocks still rank outside the KenPom top 100. Those wins make St. Peter’s look more like a 13- or 14-seed… better, but still a clear underdog. That also gives us a little more history to go on. We see four 3v14 matchups every year in the first round, and the 3-seeds are 125–23 there, winning 84% of the time.
Purdue is a clear favorite, but don’t be surprised if it stays close. Both of these teams play slow, and St. Peter’s has a top-30 defense. Purdue plays a style conducive to upsets, and top-3 seed Purdue has upset losses to 6, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 13 seeds — the latter one by the core of this team last March. Double-digit dogs are 11–5 ATS in the Sweet 16 the last 15 years. I think the Peacocks keep this close, especially with a nice crowd boost playing close to New Jersey. I’d give them around a 25% chance of an upset.
EAST ANALYSIS
If St. Peter’s upsets Purdue, you have to make the UCLA/UNC winner a clear favorite. We don’t have much history here, but 4-seeds and lower are a perfect 3–0 against double-digit seeds in the Elite 8. The Peacocks have to beat two more teams almost as good as Kentucky to make the Final Four. Even one more win would be the first ever for a 15-seed.
Purdue is the biggest favorite to reach the Elite 8 in the entire bracket, and they’ll be the favorite there, but be careful. Historically, 2- and 3-seeds are a brutal 6-14 against 4s and 5s, so that could spell trouble against UCLA. They’re also only 5–4 against 8s and 9s. Assuming Purdue does make the Elite 8, be careful of just penciling in another win.
Purdue is the East favorite, but I’m not sure they should be. UCLA and UNC can make the Final Four, and they might not be done there either.
UCLA 40%
Purdue 34%
UNC 22%
St. Peter’s 4%
SOUTH REGION
(1) Arizona vs (5) Houston
This is the best matchup of the Sweet 16. Arizona has been the second-best team in the country behind Gonzaga all year, and many advanced metrics say Houston isn’t far behind. By KenPom, these are the second and third best team in the entire nation. Both teams rank top 10 on both offense and defense, bboth capable of winning it all. This is a Final Four matchup.
Pay attention to the tempo. Arizona is one of the nation’s five fastest teams, while Houston is one of the slowest. The Cougars play a lot like TCU, only better. They want to slow things down, muck it up, and mash the offensive glass. It’s always easier to slow an opponent down than to speed them up. Arizona should be on high alert. This is no ordinary 5-seed.
Houston had better hope so, because history does not bode well for them. Historic 5-seeds are an ugly 5–30 against 1s, winning only 14% of the time. That’s similar to a 3v14 matchup for reference. Expand it to 1s versus 4s and 5s, and the favorite is still 88–25, including 18–0 the last six tournaments.
History loves the 1-seed here — but it’s also wary about either of these teams cutting down the nets as champs. Remember, Arizona started the year unranked and has a first-year coach, two massive historic red flags. The Wildcats also have five consecutive heartbreaking exits as a top-3 seed. Did they escape that trend with the TCU win, or was that a sign of things to come? The PAC-12 has only two Final Four teams in the last 12 tournaments, and the conference hasn’t won a title since Arizona did it way back in 1997, 25 years ago. A bet on Arizona is a bet against history.
As for Houston, the Cougars just beat 4-seed Illinois, but would you believe that’s Houston’s first win over a single-digit seed in the modern tourney era? Houston made the Final Four last year but lucked into facing 10, 11, 12, and 15 seeds, barely winning two of those games and getting run off the court when they faced 1-seed Baylor. The AAC has 15 tournament wins since its first season (when Lousville and UConn were in the conference for a year), and every one of them had been over a double-digit seed until this tourney. Kelvin Sampson has made two Final Fours but is a big underperformer historically, and Houston’s leading scorer Marcus Sasser is still out injured.
Then again, there are reasons to believe in Houston too. They just had their biggest tourney win since the Phi Slamma Jamma team, taking care of a 4-seeded Big Ten champion with ease. They also easily dispatched of Memphis in their conference title game two weeks ago, the same Memphis team that led Gonzaga by double digits at the half Saturday. Maybe this year’s AAC is ready. Houston will also get a big geographical advantage, playing these next two games in San Antonio with what should be a big crowd advantage. Home advantage typically affects the refs most directly, so a super aggressive team like Houston can get a big leg up with physicality and a loose whistle.
So where does all that leave us? I have no idea. I’m really looking forward to this game but almost anything could happen. Vegas makes Arizona the slightest of favorites. That’s about where I’d place it too.
(2) Villanova vs (11) Michigan
We nailed Michigan as a talented and dangerous underdog in last week’s article, and the Wolverines pulled off a pair of upsets over 6- and 3-seeds to keep their season alive. This was a top-10 preseason team before a wildly inconsistent season against a brutal schedule. You never know what you’ll get any given Michigan game, but that makes them a dangerous dog.
Still, 2-seeds dominate 11-seeds historically. They’re 15–3 all-time, though the games are often close. Five of the last seven have finished within four points, and half of them have been that close or won by the underdog. You don’t have to tell Michigan about dangerous 11-seeds. The Wolverines just lost as a 1-seed to 11-seed UCLA in the Elite 8 last year with this core.
Though 2-seeds tend to win this game, they don’t often cover, and there’s one more problem. Weirdly enough, only 3 of the last 11 2-seeds to luck into this matchup advantage went on to make the Final Four, and none of them won the championship. Maybe they’re just not as battle-tested.
Both of these teams play slow, close games, so expect this to be live late. Michigan has a similar profile to Nova’s Big East foes UConn and Providence. Villanova went 4–1 against that duo, but four of the five games were within five points. Nova profiles similarly to Purdue and Iowa in the Big 10. Michigan was 2–2 in those games.
History likes the 2-seed, but they may have to sweat this one out. If Michigan does survive, history says they’re dangerous. 11-seeds are a stunning 4–4 in the Elite 8, with all four wins against 1-seeds. That includes Final Four runs by 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU, and of course 2021 UCLA, who got there by beating Michigan. Could the Wolverines flip the script this year? They’re an underdog, but not by as much as you’d think.
SOUTH ANALYSIS
The South is the most loaded and difficult-to-predict region. Arizona is a really good, deserving favorite, but the three teams in their path are tough stylistic matchups, opponents who will slow things down and get the Wildcats out of what they do best. Arizona is the favorite, but only barely, and history makes 1-seeds about a coin-flip in Elite 8 games against 2-seeds or 11-seeds too, so that’s no help either.
Michigan is the long shot, but not as long as it seems. The Wolverines can really do this, though I make them about half as likely as the other three teams in the region. I’ll make the Zona/Houston winner a favorite in the Elite 8 matchup, so even though both those teams are more likely to lose this round, they’re still slight, slight favorites to make the Final Four.
If you’re filling out a new Second Chance bracket, beware picking a champion from the South region. This is a gauntlet, and these games look close and scary. Your champ may not survive the weekend.
Arizona 30%
Houston 28%
Villanova 27%
Michigan 15%
MIDWEST REGION
(1) Kansas vs (4) Providence
Kansas has by far the easiest remaining path to the Final Four. We knew the Midwest looked soft and figured Kansas or Auburn were default choices even if a bit overrated themselves, and that still looks like the case. Other than St. Peter’s, Kansas has the three other worst remaining teams all in its region.
That’s because Providence still looks like a 10-seed masquerading as a 4-seed. The Friars went 12–2 in close games and was unranked in the preseason. They’re #33 in KenPom even after two wins over double-digit seeds. The teams ranked right above and below the Friars are Wake Forest and Oklahoma State, neither of whom even made the tourney. Providence has a similar profile to Big 12 foes like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Iowa State. Kansas went 8–1 against those teams, though four of those wins came by four or less. That includes 2–0 against ISU, a team the Jayhawks could face in the Elite 8, with one of those wins at home on a last-second bucket.
Remember, history loves the 1-seed in these games against 4s and 5s. They’re 88–25 and have won their last 18 matchups. Kansas should be considered a big favorite, both in this game and in the region.
(10) Miami (FL) vs (11) Iowa State
Hurricanes and Cyclones in the Windy City, oh my!
Neither of these teams was expected to get here, and this is only our fourth 10v11 matchup ever so history can’t tell us much. Of course, we do get a quartet of 8v9 matchups every year, but those are basically coin flips also.
This matchup is a pretty interesting contrast of styles. Iowa State plays very stingy defense but has a hard time scoring. Miami plays incredibly efficient offense but doesn’t defend much. ISU forces a crazy number of turnovers, but the Canes amazingly have just seven turnovers in two tourney games so far, both against good defenses. Miami’s guards have been fantastic, so I’d make the Hurricanes the favorite, and right now Vegas agrees.
MIDWEST ANALYSIS
Kansas is by far the best team in this region. With Providence so overseeded, it’s almost like Kansas just has to win two more 1v9 games to make the Final Four. And for almost any other team in the nation, that would be great news! But every other team is not Kansas.
Remember, the Jayhawks entered the tourney 39–13 as a 1-seed, an average of 2.8 wins, short of the Elite 8. That’s well short of expectations and includes losses to 8 Rhode Island (1998), 9 UTEP (1992), 9 Northern Iowa (2010), and 11 VCU (2011). Bill Self is 33–6 with a week to prepare but an ugly 18–15 with one day of prep. That includes 3–7 in the Elite 8, winning just once by a single bucket in seven tries as a favorite. The Elite 8 is where Bill Self’s teams go to die. In the last 15 years, Kansas has been upset by 5, 6, 7, 10, 13, and 14 seeds. The Big 12 won the title last year but has only 2 titles the last 24 years.
On paper, Kansas should be a huge favorite to come out of this region, and that should give the Jayhawks a good chance of winning the title. On paper, Kansas should probably be the favorite right now. We know 1-seeds win titles, and they’re the 1-seed with by far the easiest path. But paper doesn’t know about Self’s history of Kansas chokes in ideal spots like this.
Double-digit seeds are 6–13 in the Elite 8. That’s not bad, considering they’re serious underdogs in all of those games. Even better, they’re 5–8 against 1-seeds, winning 38% of the time. Historically, 1-seeds let their guards down when they luck into a double-digit seed just one win away from the Final Four. Beware the Miami/ISU winner, and even better if they get to face Providence since they’re about evenly rated in most metrics.
Still, this is Kansas’s region to lose. Let’s see if they manage to do so yet again.
Kansas 55%
Miami 18%
Iowa State 15%
Providence 13%
FINAL FOUR PICKS
West: Gonzaga
East: UCLA or Purdue
South: Arizona? Houston? Villanova?
Midwest: Kansas
Okay, so these probably aren’t the most shockingly, earth-shattering Final Four picks you were expecting after 4,000 words of analysis, but the truth is that the best teams tend to win out in the end. That’s even truer once we get to Final Four weekend. In 14 of the last 15 Final Fours, the lowest remaining seed didn’t win another game. If Kansas goes down, that’s probably the Midwest representative; most likely, though, it’s the East rep.
In fact, 11 of the last 14 NCAA champions have been 1-seeds. That’s pretty great news for Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kansas. The other three champs were 2, 3, and 7-seeds, and the 3-seed was actually the best remaining team in a weird Final Four. Again, the best teams win in the end. In the last three decades, only two teams seeded 4 or worse have won the national title. Heck, we only even have three 3-seed champs, two of them in Final Fours without a top-2 seed. History tells us even Purdue and Houston are still sizable long shots, let alone Providence, Arkansas, or our darling Peacocks.
History says we’re likely down to one of 5 possible champs — Gonzaga, Duke, Arizona, Villanova, or Kansas — and maybe just 3. Historically, 1-seeds are absolutely lethal once they make the Final Four. They’re 38–15 on Final Four weekend against non-1 seeds, winning an impressive 72% of the time, and even better lately with 21 wins in the last 24. Even a 1v2 matchup skews heavily toward the 1-seed, with the favorite winning 13 of 19 such games.
So before you get too excited about a miracle run for St. Peters, UNC, or Michigan, or even Duke or Nova, know that history says that one of Gonzaga, Kansas, or Arizona will be our champion. And I think that’s the order I’d rank them. Gonzaga is on the weaker side of the bracket now, while Kansas has the easiest region. Arizona may have to go through four top-10 KenPom teams to win a title. They’re good enough to do it, but they’ll have to earn it.
Is it finally, finally Gonzaga’s year? Happy second chance bracketing! ■
Brandon is a full-time NBA and NFL staff writer at The Action Network. You can also follow him on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
Shouts to my usual March Madness readers Jody, Curt, Brianne, Josh, Luke, Jim, Todd, Matthew, David, Gutbloom, Ianic, Lon, , Rebekah, Rob, Becky, Jonny, Jonathan, Tim, Mark, Ethan, Fleet, Rajan, Ivan, Aellé, and others!
