Spurs Have More to Gain From Trading Kawhi than Losing Him in Free Agency
The Spurs actually have more leverage in a possible Kawhi Leonard trade than you think
The FIFA World Cup may have just started but the NBA never sleeps. You knew at some point there would be a huge news that would send shockwaves across the fandom.
Lo and behold, Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports provides breaking news this afternoon in regards to Kawhi Leonard that had the mouths of everyone dropping to the floor.
That’s right! The San Antonio Spurs’ best player and superstar talent supposedly wants out of the place he’s called home for seven years. His destination is preferably either the Los Angeles Lakers (#1 choice) or the New York Knicks.
This shouldn’t really come as too much of a surprise. Leonard and the Spurs’ relationship has been on the rocks for months now. Leonard did not feel comfortable playing after a quad injury despite receiving clearance to play and wanted to seek a second opinion about his injury but this turned off a lot of representatives in the organization and it supposedly led to a split locker room. If Leonard truly wants out, then he would have to believe that there is little to no room to repair his relationship with the Spurs and would like to take his career to new heights and leave a place where he earned his first NBA championship.
However, it’s unlikely that he’s going to walk away as the victor if he truly does decide to request a trade.
While Spurs fans are a wreck due to the fact that the heir of David Robinson and Tim Duncan wants to bail on his team, general manager R.C. Buford hasn’t lost as much leverage as some members of the media think he has. Sure, that means the Spurs will be forced into a rebuild but it doesn’t diminish the future of the franchise as much as people think.
It’s unlikely that the Spurs will trade Kawhi Leonard to a rival team like the Los Angeles Lakers, especially since they’re supposedly on the brink of signing both LeBron James and Paul George in free agency. Burford and Gregg Popovich will not allow that to happen. If he’s going to a team, it’s more than likely the Eastern Conference team that has the assets that would be beneficial for the Spurs’ long term future. His other team option is the New York Knicks and they are currently in the process of rebuilding the roster with Kristaps Porzingis serving as the anchor who will lead the team in the future. The Spurs are more than likely going to ask for the young All Star, as well as other young prospects like Frank Ntilikina, this year’s lottery pick and likely next year’s pick as well. That’s a hefty price to pay for one superstar. Not to mention, this trade sounds eerily similar to one that happened seven years ago.
Carmelo Anthony was in a similar position with the Denver Nuggets back in 2011. He wanted out and requested a trade to the Knicks and New York gave up the farm to bring Anthony to the Big Apple. They only had a few playoff appearances and only one first round victory. They haven’t been back to the postseason since 2013. If the Knicks decide to pursue Leonard, the scenario is more than likely to happen the same way again. Despite Leonard being a far superior talent than Anthony, Leonard will not be able to have a supporting cast to truly win a championship (assuming that’s what he cares about). The Knicks will still need to have additional depth and talent in order to matchup against teams in the Western Conference, let alone the East. It wouldn’t solidify their chances of going to the postseason.
“In theory it sounds great, but in reality nothing about going after Kawhi makes sense,” said reporter Mike Cortez of online website The Knicks Wall. “If the Spurs somehow listen to an offer that does not include the words “Kristaps Porzingis,” that would mean (multiple) draft picks and young players could be on the move. This screams of scam. Spurs GM R.C. Buford is no fool. If he wants to extract the biggest return for Kawhi, a bidding war is the best route.”
Realistically speaking, the team with the most assets to give up without mortgaging their future are the Boston Celtics. General Manager Danny Ainge has made several shrewd trades over the years and could easily come to the Spurs with a “godfather offer” that would not only secure their future but also put the Celtics in a position to challenge and defeat the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. He has tried to go after Kawhi Leonard this past season after the initial rumors of the discord between the front office and Leonard. He’ll more than likely try again. He can offer Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier or Marcus Smart, this year’s pick as well as a future first round pick, and put the Celtics in a winning position. The Spurs would receive young assets to build around — especially since Jaylen Brown continues to show promise as a future NBA superstar — and wouldn’t be doomed long term. It would essentially be a win-win situation for both sides (although it could be argued that the Celtics won the trade since they would be primed to go to the NBA Finals).
In regards to the Lakers, let’s assume that the Spurs decide to play ball and trade him to their Western Conference rival. What would the Lakers have to give up in order to get Kawhi Leonard? Much like any other team, it would have to be a lot. You can bet that the Spurs will ask for Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma, and future first round picks. The Lakers could get Kawhi Leonard but they more than likely would want to sign an extension. This would spell trouble for LeBron James and Paul George since one of them would have to take less money in order for this superteam plan to work. It isn’t a scenario where they can receive equal pay. All players expect a max contract and this is something that both the Lakers’ front office and the three aforementioned superstars will have to come to terms with during this offseason.
Speaking of money, Kawhi Leonard is going to lose a lot once he leaves San Antonio. If he stays, he’ll be able to get a $219 million for the next five years. If he leaves via trade, at best he could get $188 million. He would be leaving $31 million off the table.
The Lakers also lack roster depth that has made Golden State so lethal. Banking solely on James, Leonard, and George is not enough to win out in the West. In case folks failed to grasp what happened in the past two NBA Finals, you’re going to need a lot more than simply star power. Warriors have built a foundation that emphasizes team basketball for many years to come. Lakers will need to fill the pieces and would need to do so with limited cap room.
There could be dark horse teams that might be able to get Kawhi Leonard to their team. The ones that come to mind are the Sacramento Kings and the Philadelphia 76ers. Both teams can offer up their lottery picks (Kings have #2 overall pick and the 76ers have the #10 overall pick) and a few assets to trade for Leonard. Spurs would have additional lottery picks plus their own and young assets to cultivate into their culture. If the Kings get Leonard, they won’t be a contending team. They’d be a decent playoff team at best. If the 76ers receive Leonard, the Spurs won’t have to worry about sending him to a rival team in the West. Again, another win for R.C. Buford.
This was also noted by ESPN reporter Adrian Wojnarowski.
However, this is all merely speculation. There’s no telling whether or not if Leonard truly is fed up with the Spurs culture or is calling their bluff to see if they will offer him the max extension. Rumors are circulating that the front office is hesitant of providing him the max deal. The situation could play out like what happened with Lamarcus Aldridge. Like Leonard, Aldridge wanted out of San Antonio because he was having a falling out with Popovich. However, the future Hall of Fame head coach repaired their relationship and the trust was renewed. Popovich might be able to repair his relationship with Leonard since Leonard was at the funeral for Popovich’s wife and consoled the coach while out there. Plus, he has continuously kept close contact with the Spurs’ staff so it wasn’t like he’s alienated the front office completely.
“Kawhi Leonard didn’t necessarily ‘go rogue’, despite all the reports,” said Charania on Chris Mannix’s podcast. “He was working out with San Antonio staffers during the season and now going into the summer, his rehab has continued. He’s been around. He went to Gregg Popovich’s wife’s service shortly after the season ended. People close to him, they made it clear he was there. He interacted with Spurs’ officials, with staffers.”
There’s no telling where the future holds but if history shows us anything, the Spurs hold the cards and Kawhi Leonard may not have as much leverage as he or other NBA fans think he has.
*additional credit to Yahoo Sports, SBNation, ESPN, NBC Sports, Knicks Wall, Sports Illustrated, USA Today
