The 76ers could win the 2018 NBA Championship
This young team might just have a shot.
If you’ve watched any Philadelphia 76ers basketball this year, you know that this team has plenty of talent. Their 16-game win streak to end the regular season makes them the hottest team in basketball and capped off a 52–30 year, a 24-win improvement last year’s record. Brett Brown is in the running for coach of the year, certainly changing the culture of Philly basketball and ushering them into this new post-process millennium. They have young stars, talented veterans, Spurs-like ball movement, and phenomenal chemistry, but is it enough to carry the Eastern Conference 3-seed to a championship? Maybe. Unlikely, but maybe.
The road through the East
To compete for a championship, they must, of course, first get out of their conference. This is being written directly following Philly’s 27-point (Joel Embiid-less) victory over their first round opponent: the Miami Heat. With playoff D-Wade nothing is a certainty, but most would guess Philly is able to put Miami away in six games or less. Next up is either the Celtics (minus Kyrie Irving) or the Bucks (unlikely). Even without their best player, the Celtics are no walk in the park, but with Embiid returning for this entire series one can expect the 76ers to come out on top.
This is where it gets difficult. Barring any upsets, Philly will face one of two teams in the conference finals.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors won the season series 3–1 this year and should not be taken lightly. Demar Derozan is averaging 23 points per game, Lowry is averaging 7 assists, they have one of the best benches in the league, and Dwayne Casey has done an excellent job coaching. Despite this talent in the regular season, Toronto has a bad history of playoff performance. It’s their fifth straight year in the finals and they have just one conference finals birth to show for it. Toronto also is 24th in the league in Free Throw percentage, a surprising statistic for the team with the sixth best FG% in the NBA. These are two compelling points for their downfall in the playoffs, but the most relevant one is a guy who they might encounter in the second round named Lebron James.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Playoff Lebron James is a different animal but the same beast (quote credit: Kobe Bryant). It was his first season playing in 82 games, and the wine-fueled King was putting up shockingly consistent numbers. Philly split the season series with Cleveland this year, winning the final two. The Cavaliers biggest weakness is their defense, which ranks 28th in the NBA this season in points allowed and will be going up against the 7th best team in points scored. Cleveland does not share the ball (26th in assists), and their primary offensive strategy often seems to be the classic, “give it Lebron and let him shred the other team” (which is pretty darn effective). Hidden incentive for Lebron to win this game: If he decides to come to Philly next year, he definitely doesn’t want to pull a Kevin Durant and go to the team that beat him in the playoffs. This will be a tough matchup for Philadelphia and the young team may be tired from a deep playoff run, but it’s definitely doable as long as Robert Covington can hold Lebron to less than 30 per night.
The Finals
At this point the 76ers would have far overachieved their playoff expectations, but will be hungry for a ring and will want to continue Philly’s year of excellence (let’s free Meek Mill while we’re at it). Once again I see two possible matchup options for Philly.
Houston Rockets
Though I would not pick them outright to win the championship, the Rockets are a team to fear. It stems from their backcourt tandem of James Harden and Chris Paul, a lethal combination who have led Houston to the best record in the NBA and would create serious matchup problems for Philadelphia. Simmons would likely guard Chris Paul, but who will guard Harden? I have little faith that shooting guard J.J. Redick can stick him which leaves Brett Brown to likely put Robert Covington on The Beard. This then pushes J.J. down to guarding small forwards PJ Tucker or Trevor Ariza, guys who are too big for him.
However, it is not all bad news. The Rockets attempt the most three pointers, but are 13th in percentage from beyond the arc, and will be facing the 2nd best team at guarding it. Not exactly a formula that bodes well for H-town. They also like to run a small starting lineup with Clint Capela (6'10") at the center. Capela is a fine defender, but will be punished in the post while guarding the 7'2" Joel Embiid. If the 76ers can get Embiid touches in the post, limit opposing three pointers, and cut down on turnovers they have a shot to come out on top.
Golden State Warriors
Ah yes, the Golden State Warriors. The SuperTeam. Number one in made field goals, number one in field goal percentage, number one in three point percentage, number one in free throw percentage, number one in assists, and number one in points. They have the two best shooters in NBA, the second best player in the world (who also a top five shooter), 2017’s Defensive Player of the Year, playoff experience, and a great coach. Not a lot of weakness there.
How can the 76ers pull off the miracles of all miracles and win (and ink a future 30 for 30 in the process)? Let’s take a look. The 76ers will not be able to lock the Dubs down defensively despite their excellent three point defense, so if they’re going to win it will have to be a shootout. One advantage for Philly: injury. Steph Curry missed the first game of the playoffs with a knee issue that has kept him out the past few weeks and he is likely to return soon, but will he be equally as effective? Even I, the ruthless Philly sports fan, will not wish injury upon anyone, but it could make the Warriors weaker.
Another advantage: ball movement. The 76ers rank just behind the Warriors in assists, and their game resembles that of Steve Kerr’s team. Compare this to the Cavaliers last year who struggled to move the ball effectively against the Warriors, often leading to end-of-shot-clock drives by Lebron James or reckless threes by J.R. Smith (no disrespect to the Hennessy god). If Philly plays the way the Warriors team plays (passes, cutting, constant movement), they could beat them. Finally, Embiid would be likely be matching up against Javale McGee at center, a guy who isn’t know for much besides his frequent appearances on Shaqtin’ a Fool. Big time advantage for Joel in that matchup.
Final Thoughts
The NBA playoffs are possibly the most difficult postseason in all of sports to pull off a cinderella story. You need to be better than the opposing team for four out of seven games which is why you don’t see teams sneak by their opposition. The 76ers lack playoff experience and stamina, for playing an extra 20–30 games in a season is no small deed. It’s unlikely and improbable, Las Vegas betting odds gives them a 5% chance to win the title. But hey, Philly is used to being underdogs, or did you already forget about this February?
