The Brilliance in Brad Stevens First Trade as Boston Celtics GM
The 2021 Boston Celtics had a slew of problems. In my prior article, lamenting both, that the Celtics sucked and why it shouldn’t have been surprising to anyone, back in March, I broke down the basic issues of the teams’ structure (age, height, bench depth, etc.) and framed it in an optimistic, understanding tone. Was I biased? Absolutely. Any writer who tells you they aren’t bias is lying, we don’t write what we don’t want to write about, and if we do, we write it the way we want it to be written.
With that said, I did not expect Danny Ainge to step down and appoint Brad Stevens to his, now, former position, but here we are.
It’s no secret to anyone who knows me that I absolutely loved Danny Ainge, so I want to take a sentence to thank him for his willingness to take chances, successes, failures, and his general demeanor as the leader of my favorite franchise in basketball — you will always be a Celtic legend, on and off the court, Danny!
Moving forward — WELCOME TO THE FRONT OFFICE, BRAD!! AND WITH AN ABSOLUTE BANG OF A TRADE!!!
The Boston Celtics have traded Kemba Walker, and their 2021/22 16th overall pick, and will receive Al Horford, Moses Brown, and a 2022/23 2nd round pick from the OKC Thunder.
Guess what — I LOVE THIS TRADE. And I’m going to stop writing in all caps and break down why.
With the utmost respect to Kemba Walker; a guy who came in and embraced the city (unlike his predecessor), worked his tail off (unlike his predecessor), was a team leader on and off the court (unlike his predecessor), and absolutely gave what he could to the Boston Celtics (…), this was a signing that was always destined to fail. At 31 years old, two knee injuries in, and standing at an exaggerated 5'11, the man who was overpaid ($35 million per year over 4 years) for his ability score, and absolutely nothing else, seemingly lost his one special ability on a basketball court. Proof of this was the Celtics 3.4 more points per 100 possessions when Walker wasn’t on the court last season.
This shouldn’t be surprising. Father time is undefeated, and generally comes sooner than average for those outside the normal-standard deviation of height in the NBA. In the last year, Kemba Walker was simply painful to watch. I’m not sure there’s one stat that can truly encapsulate that statement, it’s just a known and accepted truth amongst anyone who watched Celtics games regularly.
What’s more, aside from his lost ability to score, Walker’s a player who NEEDS the ball to have any sort of effect on a basketball court. So, while his numbers across all stats and advanced metrics took a dive, the effects were compounding towards the team, as he was taking the ball out of the hands of those who would’ve better served the team by having it. His defense only added to this — he was one of the worst defenders in the league, with no ability to switch screens, no weak-side help ability, and while he was an above average rebounder for his size, he found himself likely leading the league in RAPs (rebounds after points), a stat coined by my fifth-grade-travel-team coach as a method of either trashing or motivating us (still debating to this day).
Adding scoring to a basketball team isn’t always as simple or intuitive as adding scorers. That’s because scoring doesn’t solely come from players natural ability to score, but situational intelligence, capitalization of high-scoring-percentage opportunities, and the ability to put teams in position to take higher-percentage shots can result in an organic increase of points from an offense. This is addition by subtraction, if you will.
Things like defensive rebounds, a decrease in personal fouls, the ability to successfully outlet the ball and create transition opportunities can all be correlated with “easy buckets.” With that said, Boston was a relatively efficient offense last year; a result of the extraordinary ability of it’s two budding stars, Brown and Tatum, to score in tough situations. The Celtics two biggest issues on offense were very clear — they couldn’t pass, and they didn’t get nearly enough “easy buckets.”
Swapping out an undersized, score-first PG who averaged more than 6 assists in his career once, for an offensive-facilitating, high IQ Center should help the Celtics with their passing, and equate to less tough shots in the half court offense.
On defense, the Celtics were also relatively efficient, but again, they had two glaring issues — an inability to rebound and, more importantly, an inability to protect the rim, as they finished the year 22nd in Defensive Rebounds, and 24th in Personal Fouls per game. This trade, adding 6'10 and 7'2 Centers, directly addresses both of these issues. The Celtics fouled because they couldn’t protect the rim. So, while their perimeter defense was above average, they often fell victim to long-strong defensive stands that resulted in bailout fouls at the rim due to late-shot-clock drives that our either, inexperienced, undersized, or both, bigs couldn’t defend.
Al Horford, even at his age, is a considerably better team defender than any Center on the Celtics. Forcing more difficult shots and fouling less will equate to more defensive rebounds, transition opportunities, and possessions, while simultaneously providing less “easy bucket” opportunities to opponents. This is so crucial because, having two wing players in Brown and Tatum who are elite transition players, can alleviate the scoring burden on the rest of the roster and also help hide the lack of scoring that exists on the rest of the roster, allowing them to play more organically.
Onto money, the Celtics will now save just over $19 Million over the next two years from this move. If they’re able to successfully offload Tristian Thompson for draft capital, they’ll have gone from being $16 million over the Cap to having anywhere between $5 and $20 Million in cap, depending on the ability of the Celtics to exercise their trade-exception on Horford’s deal (info not readily available at this time). Either way this is a HUGE win for Boston.
The timing of this move is great, additionally, because the free agency market for PG’s is stacked, and it’s now likely that the saturation of this market will result in Boston being able to sign a quality replacement at PG for under market value, with the current class set to feature the likes of Chris Paul, Mike Conley Jr., Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic (go play with Luka, though), Dennis should’ve-taken-the-money Schroder, Patty Mills, Lonzo Ball, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dante Exum, and Derek Rose. It’s almost a certainty that both Paul and Conley stay put, but the rest of the market is still saturated enough for a solid player to slip through the cracks and go for under market value.
GET IT DONE BRAD.
