The Curious Case of Bradley Beal
In the dead-heat race for this year’s scoring title, Bradley Beal could become the first player in 45 years to achieve an unfortunate feat.
In a year that has felt anything but typical, the NBA landscape seems to change month to month. One month ago, Bradley Beal was the far-and-away favorite to win this season’s scoring title. Then the greatest shooter of all time, Steph Curry, played the greatest month of his career in April. Curry has averaged a mammoth 37.3 PPG on 52–47–91 shooting, single handedly keeping the Warriors alive in the playoff hunt in the process.
As of this writing, Curry and Beal are now tied, each with exactly 31.3 points per game on the season. The race for the scoring title has not been this close since 1993–94, the year David Robinson famously scored 71 points in the final game of the season against the Clippers to claim the crown from Shaquille O’Neal.
While a lot remains indeterminable between now and the final game of this season, one thing seems clear: Steph Curry will be honored in a way that Bradley Beal will not. Curry is effectively a shoe-in selection for the 2020–21 All-NBA Team — Beal is…not.
If Bradley Beal wins the scoring title, he will likely become the first scoring champion in 45 years to not make an All-NBA Team.
Only two scoring champs have ever been omitted as an All-NBA selection: Elvin Hayes in 1969, and Bob McAdoo in 1976. McAdoo is a particularly bizarre case, since he was that season’s MVP runner-up, just behind winner Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. However, only two centers could make the All-NBA Team at the time. The Second Team selection went to Dave Cowens, who finished third in the extraordinarily close MVP race. The NBA did not add the All-NBA Third Team until 1988–89 — had the Third Team existed in 1976, McAdoo would assuredly have been selected.
Forty-five years later, this makes Beal’s case look all the more curious. To put this into a recent context, the most recent scoring champion to finish outside the top 5 in NBA MVP voting was Tracy McGrady in 2003–04, yet he was still selected to that year’s All-NBA Second Team). Beal has not even cracked the conversation for top 10 in this year’s MVP voting discussions.
Why is Beal’s 31+ PPG season viewed so comparatively unremarkable?
For starters, a player’s team record plays an immense role in determining accolades. The term “empty stats” seems to be thrown around more and more often as players put up stellar box scores that don’t translate into team success. Beal has been the pinnacle example this season of a “good player on a bad team.” Going into April, Washington was a lottery-bound 17–29 — a dismal place to be for a team with playoff aspirations. Then the Wizards went off in April, going 11–5, and now looking like the team no one wants to face in the play-in games. However, this late season surge is not enough for people to perceive Beal’s play as MVP-level impactful, especially since triple-double-monster teammate Russell Westbrook has been dominating the headlines through the winning streak.
Secondly, the “space-and-pace” era continues to inflate scoring like we’ve never seen. The NBA’s average offensive rating is yet again at an all-time high: 112.2. For context, in 2014–15 it was 105.6. An individual scoring 30+ points per game is impressive in any era, but becomes more normative with each passing year.
Third, and perhaps most notably, guards are dominating the league in a way they never have before. Russell Westbrook will finish the season averaging a triple-double for the fourth time. DeMar DeRozan is back to his All-Star form. Before his injury, Jamal Murray was looking like “Bubble Murray” again. Jrue Holiday is proving why the Bucks sacrificed so much to acquire him. Ja Morant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young, and De’AAron Fox are rightfully the centerpieces for their respective franchises. When playing his best, CJ McCollum is one-half of perhaps the most formidable backcourt in the league. Even “Scary” Terry Rozier has been on a bit of a tear. And yet, none of the above players mentioned were amidst the thirteen guards selected for this year’s All Star game.
To effectively answer the question “Will Bradley Beal make an All-NBA Team,” let’s break down the likelihood of which thirteen All Star guards will be the six selected for the All-NBA Teams.
The “Shoe-In” group:
To start, these are the guards quite likely to make an All-NBA Team this season:
- Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors — As mentioned, he’s putting up numbers comparable to his unanimous MVP season, solidifying his status as the best shooter in the league. Anyone but Curry can be blamed for the Warriors’ floundering season.
- Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks — Despite his out-of-shape start, Doncic has come around to proving why he was the MVP favorite heading into the season. Averaging just shy of 29–9–8, Doncic is the singular reason for the Mavs’ status as a threat.
- Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns — The transformative power Paul has on teams has never been more apparent than this year, leading to some serious late-season consideration for MVP. No player has been more valuable for the Suns — a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 11 years, yet may finish atop the West standings when all is said and done.
- Damian Lillard, Portland Trailblazers — What’s more impressive: Dame keeping the Blazers competitive in the loaded West despite the team’s persistent injuries? Or that “Dame Time“ has become synonymous with clutch performances?
The “Close, But No Cigar” group:
Next, as a way of narrowing in on Beal’s competition, these are the guards that earned an All-Star selection, but likely will not be in consideration for the All-NBA Team:
- Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics — Except for Julius Randle, no player’s All-Star leap was more substantial this year than Jaylen Brown’s. For example, he was the first Celtics player ever to score 40 points on 85% shooting in a game, signifying the type of impactful player he can be. Despite Brown’s consistent efforts, the Celtics have been anything but consistent, teetering between a “genuine contender” and an “easy first round sweep”.
- Zach Lavine, Chicago Bulls — Lavine has improved nearly every aspect of his game, validating his first All Star selection. His 27.5 points per game is good for sixth in the league this year, but many past years would put him in the top three. However, the Bulls have been hot and cold this year — and colder than ever with Lavine out due to COVID protocol. With Chicago on the outside looking in, expect Lavine to be doing the same with All-NBA.
- Mike Conley, Utah Jazz — Conley finally gave up his status as “best player to not make the All Star team” with his long-overdue first selection. He is having the best shooting season of his career, and plays a pivotal role of balance for the league-leading Jazz. However, he is not even considered the best guard on his own team, so don’t expect to see him listed amidst the six best guards in the league.
The “In The Running” group:
By process of elimination, Beal is one of six All Star guards fighting for the final two All-NBA Team spots:
- James Harden, Brooklyn Nets — Prior to his injury, Harden was genuinely in the MVP conversation, and for good reason. As the glue that holds together arguably the most talented offensive team in NBA history, Harden’s masterful ability to adopt a facilitator-like approach to his game has elevated the Nets to the top of the East, averaging 10.9 assists per game, while still delivering 25.2 PPG.
- Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz— He is the best player on the team with the league’s best record. In most seasons, that statement alone would equate to being one of the primary MVP candidates. Fun fact: He’s averaged more points per game since the All Star break than any Jazz player in 30 years (Karl Malone). This should be enough to keep him in the All-NBA conversation, despite missing time for his recent ankle injury.
- Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets — Irving reminded us why he belongs in the “Superstar” category. Shooting over 50% from the field for the first time in his career, Irving averaging 27 PPG makes him the most potent “third scoring option” of all time.
- Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns— Chris Paul may be the most important player for the Suns, but Devin Booker is still the best. If they end up on top of the West, it’s possible both Booker and Paul are selected to the All-NBA Team.
- Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers — Simmons was an All-NBA selection last year, and is having a better season this year. As a mirror image to Beal, Simmons could be the Defensive Player of the Year yet still miss the All-NBA Team. While this is slightly more common historically — see Rudy Gobert in 2017–18, or Kawhi Leonard in 2014–15 — it’s still rare. Even though he will likely finish second to the aforementioned Gobert, he still has a strong All-NBA chance if the Sixers finish top of the East.
The case for Beal looks meek when compared to these contemporaries. My personal prediction is that Harden and Mitchell edge out the guards for the final two selections, with Booker possibly in the mix as well. Beal still has a chance, of course — but those chances rely on both Beal running away with the scoring title over Curry and the Wizards winning most of their final games to enter the playoffs.
Beal is no stranger to snubs. Last season, Beal became the first player in history to finish higher than 30 PPG and 6 APG and not make an All-NBA Team. This year, he looks to do the same. Some day Beal will get his laurels — but that day will not be in 2021.
Update: The original version of this story was written on April 30th. As of May 6th, Curry has 31.5 PPG and Beal has 31.1 PPG.
