The Premier League’s Seven Tiers — Predicting The 2022 Table
With the 2022 English Premier League (EPL) season scheduled to start today, it’s time to break down the league into seven tiers and predict the final table for the ensuing season. The tiers divide teams into brackets based on their general expectations, whether having a legitimate chance at the coveted EPL Title, UEFA Champions League (UCL)/Europa League (UEL) qualification and so on down to avoiding relegation.
Teams that finish in the top four of the standings automatically qualify for UCL, while the fifth place team qualifies for UEL, as well as the winner of the FA Cup (if the FA Cup winner has already qualified for one of the above competitions, the next runner up is given a guaranteed group stage spot). The winner of the EFL Cup automatically qualifies for the UEFA Conference League (the same logic above applies here). All in all, seven EPL teams can qualify for European competition — four UCL, two EUL, and one Conference League spots are up for grabs.
Tier 1: Legitimate Title Contenders
1 — Manchester City (Finished 1st last season)
Top Arrivals: Erling Haaland, Kalvin Phillips, Stefan Ortega
Top Departures: Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Pedro Porro, Yangel Herrera
2 — Liverpool (Finished 2nd last season)
Top Arrivals: Darwin Nuñez, Fabio Carvalho, Calvin Ramsay
Top Departures: Sadio Mané, Neco Williams, Takumi Minamino, Marko Grujic, Divok Origi
Both the reigning champions, Manchester City, and their close rival Liverpool made multiple high-profile signings this offseason. City led the way with the acquisition of Erling Haaland, giving them a true nine who can both stretch the field for over-the-top balls as well as hold up play in the mid-attacking areas. Given City’s ability to add without real subtraction from the rest of their core, it’s hard to picture them not winning the league again for what would become their fifth title in six seasons.
However, if they’re to be dethroned, Liverpool will be the squad to do it, as Jurgen Klopp’s side managed to turn Sadio Mane’s departure into their own true nine, Darwin Núñez, who should have a similar effect for Liverpool in solidifying the top of their attacking formation. Liverpool’s ability to stretch the width of the field with their fullbacks, Robertson and Alexander-Arnold should keep the Reds from suffering Mane’s loss too harshly.
Regardless of which of these teams hoists the Premier League Title at the end of the season, it’s safe to say that any team aside from Manchester City or Liverpool winning would be a shock to the league.
Tier 2: Fake Contenders — UCL Qualification or BUST
3 — Chelsea (Finished 3rd last season)
Top Arrivals: Raheem Sterling, Kalidou Koulibaly, Conor Gallagher, Marc Cucurella, Carney Chukwuemeka
Top Departures: Romelu Lukaku, Antonio Rüdiger, Andreas Christensen, Jake Clarke-Salter, Levi Colwill
4 — Tottenham Hotspur (Finished 4th last season)
Top Arrivals: Richarlison, Yves Bissouma, Djed Spence, Clément Lenglet, Ivan Perisic
Top Departures: Steven Bergwijn, Joe Roden, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Jack Clarke
The name of this tier speaks for itself… Chelsea had a lane to propel themselves into the above conversation, however, due to ownership issues that carried over into the summer, including a new owner that learned about the craziness of the summer transfer window the hard way, it became apparent that hanging onto UCL qualification would likely be the only real expectation from the Blues this upcoming year.
Antonio Conte’s revitalized Spurs squad, on the other hand, over-performed through the end of last season to sneak into this year's UCL competition, giving upper management the inclination to perform summer business as a UCL-level squad. This led to quality purchases of Richarlison, Yves Bissouma, and Ivan Perisic — three players who should help Tottenham remain safely in the UCL qualification zone for the upcoming season.
Tier 3: UCL Upside — UEL or BUST
5 — Arsenal (Finished 5th last season)
Top Arrivals: Gabriel Jesus, Fabio Vieira, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Marquinhos, Matt Turner
Top Departures: Mattéo Guendouzi, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Alexandre Lacazette, Nuno Tavares, Bernd Leno
6 — Manchester United (Finished 6th last season)
Top Arrivals: Lisandro Martinez, Christian Eriksen, Tyrell Malacia, Alvaro Fernandez
Top Departures: Paul Pogba, Jesse Lingard, Dean Henderson, Alex Telles, Andreas Pereira, … not Cristiano Ronaldo … yet?
7 — West Ham United (Finished 7th last season)
Top Arrivals: Gianluca Scamacca, Nayef Aguerd, Flynn Downes, Alphonse Areola, Nathan Trott
Top Departures: Arthur Masuaku, Andriy Yarmolenko, Ryan Fredericks, Mark Noble, David Martin
Maybe the most enigmatic tier of them all, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of these teams finish anywhere between fourth and ninth place… While Arsenal’s the side that had the most successful summer window, adding two first 11 players in Jesus and Zinchenko from Manchester City, they still remain an unpredictable squad with maybe the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any team in the EPL.
Manchester United did well to bring in much-needed help at the back through the acquisition of Lisandro Martínez, and Tyrell Malacia, however the free transfer of Christian Erikson is a bit of a head-scratcher, given he and Bruno Fernandez occupy the space and will both hope to play first team minutes moving forward. New coach Erik Ten Hag has this, as well as the saga surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo’s potential exit to manage. These issues compiled with the ongoing divide between management, ownership, and front office in team-building philosophy will prove a tough test for any manager, and Ten Hag’s time is now.
West Ham had a quietly strong summer and should look to have similar aspirations as last season — finishing anywhere below a UEL bid will be considered a disappointment to the Hammers and their notably diehard fanbase.
Tier 4: UEL Upside — Top Half or BUST
8 — Newcastle United (Finished 9th last season)
Top Arrivals: Sven Botman, Matt Targett, Nick Pope, Elliot Anderson
Top Departures: Freddie Woodman, Isaac Hayden, Jeff Hendrick, Ciaran Clark, Dwight Gayle
9 — Aston Villa (Finished 14th last season)
Top Arrivals: Diego Carlos, Boubacar Kamara, Philippe Coutinho, Ludwig Augustinsson, Robin Olsen
Top Departures: Carney Chukwuemeka, Matt Targett, Trezeguet, Wesley, Jaden Philogene-Bidace
In contrast to tier three, tier 4 may be the lost group of the league, as both Newcastle and Aston Villa have made quietly strong pushes towards solidifying themselves as top-half teams. The arrivals of Sven Botman and Matt Targett should help Newcastle remain a tough beat for any EPL side, and provide their ownership much-needed time to plot future big purchases while keeping their name relevant in the meantime.
As for Villa, head coach Steven Gerard will look to see improvements across all areas of the pitch, as this season will serve as an audition for major clubs pertaining to his ability to lead a team in the world’s most competitive league.
Tier 5: Mid Table Wanderers
10 — Leicester City (Finished 8th last season)
Top Arrivals: None
Top Departures: Kasper Schmeichel, Eldin Jakupovic
11 — Wolverhampton Wanderers (Finished 10th last season)
Top Arrivals: Nathan Collins, Hee-chan Hwang
Top Departures: Fabio Silva, Ruben Vinagre, Romain Saiss, Ki-Jana Hoever, Marcal
12 — Brentford (Finished 13th last season)
Top Arrivals: Keane Lewis-Potter, Aaron Hickey, Thomas Strakosha, Ben Mee
Top Departures: Christian Eriksen, Marcus Forss, Zanka, Julian Jeanvier, Dominic Thompson
13 — Brighton & Hove Albion (Finished 9th last season)
Top Arrivals: Julio Enciso, Simon Adingra
Top Departures: Marc Cucurella, Yves Bissouma, Abdallah Sima, Aaron Connolly, Leo Ostigard, Michal Karbownik
14 — Crystal Palace (Finished 12th last season)
Top Arrivals: Cheick Dourcouré, Sam Johnstone, Chris Richards, Malcom Ebiowei
Top Departures: Cheikhou Kouyaté, Martin Kelly, Jaroslaw Jach, Remi Matthews, Jacob Montes
At this point, it would be relatively tedious to break down the moves of each of these teams and how it pertains to where they’ll finish within the league. It’s worth noting that with the major losses of Marc Cucurella and Yves Bissouma, expect Brighton to fall into the lower half of the table, with Brentford being the team in this group with the most potential upside, as the potentially ensuing arrival of Mikkel Damsgaard could prove a more than adequate replacement of the older Christian Eriksen, who left for Manchester United on a free transfer.
Tier 6: Avoid Relegation or BUST
15 — Everton (Finished 16th last season)
Top Arrivals: James Tarkowski, Dwight McNeil, Ruben Vinagre
Top Departures: Richarlison, Jonjoe Kenny, Jarrad Branthwaite, Cenk Tosun, Fabian Delph
16 — Southampton (Finished 15th last season)
Top Arrivals: Gavin Bazunu, Sékou Mara, Roméo Lavia, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Joe Aribo
Top Departures: Fraser Forster, Will Smallbonem Dan N’Lundulu, Shane Long, Harry Lewis
While Southampton made enough noise in the window to likely keep them safe from a relegation battle, the story of this tier is the Everton Toffee’s and their lack of transfer business, leaving them in a predicament either equally or more difficult than the one they found themselves in last year. Frank Lampard is still an unproven coach in the EPL, and the departure of their best attacker, Richarlison, was not supplemented with a likewise addition. Expect the Toffee’s to be open, for goals to be scored by both teams in their games, and for a wild ride that could land them anywhere between tenth, and, well…
Tier 7: The EPL Survivors Bracket
17 — Nottingham Forest (Promoted from English Championship)
Top Arrivals: Taiwo Awoniyi, Neco Williams, Jesse Lingard, Dean Henderson, Moussa Niakhaté
Top Departures: Brice Samba, Jonathan Panzo, Tobais Figueiredo, Braian Ojeda, Ethan Horvath
18 — Leeds United (Finished 17th last season)
Top Arrivals: Gavin Bazunu, Sékou Mara, Roméo Lavia, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Joe Aribo
Top Departures: Raphinha, Fraser Forster, Will Smallbonem Dan N’Lundulu, Shane Long, Harry Lewis
19 — Fulham (Promoted from English Championship)
Top Arrivals: Joao Palhinha, Manor Solomon, Andreas Pereira, Kevin Mbabu, Bernd Leno
Top Departures: André Zambo Anguissa, Fábio Carvalho, Jean Michaël Seri, Alfie Mawson, Michael Hector
20 — AFC Bournemouth (Promoted from English Championship)
Top Arrivals: Marcus Tavernier, Joe Rothwell, Ryan Fredericks
Top Departures: Gavin Kilkenny, Robbie Brady, Gary Cahill, Zeno Ibsen Rossi
A sad prediction for the historic club, Leeds United. They simply lost too much in the summer window without adding adequate replacements for a team that barely dodged relegation on the final day of last season to avoid fate twice. A strong winter addition for one of these teams will likely be the deciding factor of which will win the race to the coveted seventeenth spot. Given the notable additions of Neco Williams from Liverpool and Jesse Lingard from United, Nottingham Forest will start the year with the slightest of advantages…
With the season slated to start today, all EPL fans can finally rejoice. Whether your teams fighting to stay up, vying for future leverage in the market through a stronger than predicted season result, in the race for one of Europe's coveted competition slots, or even the EPL Title itself, this league is all about the chase. Every game is a championship game! Let the season begin!
