The Ultimate Guide and Q&A to the 2022 NBA Finals
On Thursday, the Golden State Warriors will host the Boston Celtics for Game one of the NBA Finals.
On one side, the Warriors utilize a free-flowing, off-ball-dependent style that aims to capitalize on space and timing through simple sets that make the best teams in the world look silly. Steve Kerr’s coaching, Steph’s brilliance, Klay’s reemergence, and Draymond’s court awareness and relentless effort. These four cornerstones make the game easy for their teammates, fun for fans, and helpless for their opponents.
On the other side are the rough and rugged Celtics. A team that’s been slowly and meticulously designed for this specific matchup, led by two of the leagues best two-way players, the first point guard to win DPOY (defensive player of the year) this century, and a slew of plug and play bench players who seem to understand what the team needs when they need it. First year coach Ime Udoka’s ascension to a top tier NBA coach has only sped up Boston’s timeline to reach the top of the NBA’s hierarchy.
Objectivity is the goal here as I lay out my analysis on this matchup. We’ll start with breaking down why each team hypothetically won this series from a future perspective, and end with Q&A that I’ve opened up to a few like-minded, die-hard NBA fans.
PART 1: Who Won and Why?
If The Warriors Win This Series, What Happened?
For the Golden State Warriors to win this series would mean likely a few specific things happened. Vegas’ odds favoring the Warriors to beat the Celtics in the 2022 finals reflects the public perception that great offense triumphs over great defense. While the Warriors also boast an elite defense, their ability to spread out teams and tire out their opponents defense through constant off-ball movement is what truly makes this team tick.
On a more specific level, the Warriors will need to shoot a solid percentage from beyond the arc (33–40%), while also finding ways to generate easy buckets at the rim both off of forced live-ball turnovers, as well as through exploiting the Celtics interior defenders, causing Udoka to make tough decisions about leaving Center Robert Williams on the court.
If the Warriors win this series, it’ll be because the Celtics playmakers and ball handlers turned the ball over, Robert Williams was either hurt or rendered unplayable due to the Warriors ability to space the court, and the Warriors role players (Poole/Porter Jr./Wiggins) showed up in a big way on both ends of the court.
If The Celtics Win This Series, What Happened?
For Boston to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy over Golden State would likely indicate two things happened in this series;
1: The Celtics didn’t allow the Warriors defense to force them into live-ball turnovers, denying easy opportunities for the Warriors to get free buckets at the rim.
2: The Celtics half-court defense stymied the Warriors offense, consistently forcing the dubs into late shot-clock forced jumpers, overpassing — translating into turnovers, and not allowing the Warriors to score at the rim/generate second chance points through offensive rebounds.
In short, the Celtics need to be able to play big against the Warriors small lineups to win this series. If they’re able to get positive minutes while playing Robert Williams and Al Horford together on the floor, expect trouble for the Warriors.
Part 2: Q&A
(Q&A includes answers from myself, Julian Counts — long time NBA fan and historian, Josh Gonzalez — NBA historian, and ex-high school player, and Nick Vinacco — current URI Sports Media major developing his sports writing skills.)
Question 1: Who’s the most important non-star player in this series [and why]?
NICK ATWOOD: The last name that comes to mind is Williams… the first name isn’t as easy. A huge question in this series (a three-parter) A- can Robert Williams get healthy? B- if yes, can the Celtics manage to play him for long stretches without being exploited on the perimeter? and C- if no to either, is Grant Williams ready for the moment? So, in short, I’ll go with Williams… I think the Celtics can win this series if one of them plays up to their full potential.
JULIAN COUNTS: The Time-Lord, Robert Williams. If healthy, he can provide both rim protection and a lob threat that the Warriors haven’t seen this postseason (Warriors killed the Mavericks in PITP*).
*PITP — Points In The Paint.
JOSH GONZALEZ: I think it comes down to Jordan Poole or Grant Williams. If Grant can Shoot at a decent clip and play the defense he’s been showing throughout this postseason, he’ll be an X Factor for the Celtics. Poole is a firecracker off the Warriors’ bench and could easily set off one of their trademark three-point barrages when in with the Splash Bros. It will be interesting to see how Boston handles the Warriors coined death lineup… but I’m taking Grant Williams to be more of a difference maker.
NICK VINACCO: This is a tough answer but I’m going to go with Andrew Wiggins. We have seen his defensive abilities during the postseason featured against Luka Dončić. If he’s able to impact the play of Jayson Tatum and force someone else on the Celtics to score each night it will cause problems for the Celtics in the half court.
Question 2: Which superstar, Curry or Tatum, needs to perform better for their team to win?
ATWOOD: Here’s a quick breakdown of relevant averages by each player split by wins and losses in the 2022 playoffs;
Steph Curry in Wins: 27.75 PPG, 4.1 3pt FGM (37.5%)
Steph Curry in Losses: 23.5 PPG, 2.75 3pt FGM (31.4%)
Jayson Tatum in Wins: 29.33 PPG, 6.2 APG, 3.7 TOVPG (1.7 AST/TOV ratio)
Jayson Tatum in Losses: 22.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 4.5 TOVPG (1.0 AST/TOV ratio)
I think it’s abundantly clear that each of these players are close to equally important to their respective teams success. The stat that I’ll be comparing in this series between the two stars is Curry’s three-point percentage and Tatum’s assist to turnover ratio. I expect whichever respective stat that holds closer to their ‘winning’ average to come out on top. Ultimately, I think the Celtics are more dependent on efficient performances from Tatum than the Warriors are from Curry, as I expect the Celtics to rush Curry and force others to hit shots, and for the Warriors to welcome this as an opportunity to exploit spatial openings as a result.
COUNTS: Steph Curry.
JOSH GONZALEZ: Probably Tatum. He’s going to need to be close to the 30/8/8 per game mark for the Celtics to get it done. While the Celtics have been able to win games where he wasn’t at his best, and can win ugly, the Warriors offense can erase deficits the way Milwaukee and Miami couldn’t.
VINACCO: Tatum needs to perform better for his team than Curry because the Celtics offense is impacted by the level Jayson Tatum plays at. I’m not discrediting the other stars and role players on the Celtics but look at Game 3 of the ECF for example. Tatum scored a postseason low 10 points and the Celtics lost even with a 40pt game from Jaylen Brown.
Question 3: Which team-stat do you expect to tell the story of the series?
ATWOOD: Specifically live-ball turnovers. The Warriors know that the Celtics often go through periods of stagnation within their half-court offense. How do the Celtics offset these lull-periods? Transition buckets. If the Warriors hand gift the Celtics transition points, the Celtics will be less reliant on points from Brown and Tatum in the half court, and be able to focus the brunt of their energy on their defensive strategy vs the Warriors perimeter threats.
Conversely, as the Celtics saw against Miami, their defense goes how their offense goes. When the Celtics get caught being sluggish in the half court and give away easy transition buckets, it applies more pressure on Brown and Tatum to put up high scoring outputs for the team to keep up. Look for the team with less live-ball turnovers to take control early in this series.
COUNTS: A coinciding answer — turnovers/transition points. Live-ball turnovers may end up being the difference maker in this series, as both teams have incredibly strong defenses when set in the half-court. While both teams average higher than average turnovers, expect the team with more transition points to win the series.
GONZALEZ: That’s a close one between three-point shooting and rebounding. A lot of shots are going to be coming from beyond the arc, and that means long rebounds. Which ever team can make three’s and secure misses more successfully will win the series.
VINACCO: A team stat each team has to keep an eye on is turnovers. The Celtics average 14 turnovers per game to the Warriors 14.8, with both teams averaging 16.3 in losses. Winning the turnover battle will be huge for each team, especially with Boston and Golden State being the top two defensive teams this season.
Question 4: Can the Warriors create easy shots against the Celtics in the half-court?
ATWOOD: This depends on the health of the Celtics. Boston has shown an ability to adjust to their opponents, while shifting their defensive strategies series to series with relative ease. Marcus Smart guards Steph Curry better than anyone on the planet, as the plan will likely be to have Smart fight through as many screens as possible to stick with him, as the Warriors don’t have a true rim-running threat. I think Golden State will need to figure out how to attack the paint in order to achieve half-court success vs the Celtics long, laterally quick, and intelligent perimeter defenders.
COUNTS: More than the previous three teams the Celtics beat to get to the finals, their guards move extremely well off the ball and aren’t afraid to shoot from 30+ feet with a hand in their face.
GONZALEZ: Yes they can. More than any other team the Celtics have seen so far in the playoffs. They have an offense that relies heavy on ball movement and finding the open man. We’re gonna see a lot of Lobs and Corner 3s. But they’re not going to be able to do it as easily as they have been against this Boston defense.
VINACCO: Creating easy shots against the Celtics half court defense has been proven to be tough on any team. The Celtics’ starting five can switch against any position 1–5. They will have, DPOY, Marcus Smart guarding Steph Curry and they have to elite rim protectors in Time Lord and Big Al. The Warriors only chance at beating this team in the half-court is will come with limiting turnovers and crashing the offensive boards.
Question 5: Who should the Celtics look to find scoring from outside of their big 4 (JT/JB/Smart/AL)?
ATWOOD: I don’t think the answer, is so much who, as it where… The Celtics should look to make the Warriors pay for their lack of size when they play small, particularly, emphasizing attacking Jordan Poole and Steph Curry on the defensive end. Look for the Celtics to utilize whoever they’re guarding in a pick and drop at the top of the key when the Warriors play small, with the screener dropping to and receiving the ball at the free-throw line which will collapse the Warriors defense and create either open three point attempts for Grant Williams Payton Pritchard, and Derrick White, or a lob to Robert Williams for an open dunk.
COUNTS: Payton Pritchard. Pritchard finally finds himself in a series where he should be able to get some consistent minutes off the bench, and if he’s able to come out confident, play with tempo, and score off the dribble when the Celtics half court inevitably stalls, it could provide the aid the Celtics need.
GONZALEZ: I think Derek White is that guy. He’s been Shooting well the last few games. The Celtics will need his ability to get to the rim and make quick decisions on offense.
VINACCO: The Celtics are going to need additional scoring from Derrick White throughout the finals. We already saw what Derrick white can provide with 22 points in game 6 against the heat and giving the Celtics the boost they needed to almost win that game.
Question 6: Who wins, in how many games, and why?
ATWOOD: Celtics in 7. The Celtics have coined themselves as “road warriors” going 7–2 on the road vs. 5–4 at home this playoffs. While the Warriors are 9–0 at home, they haven’t faced a team anywhere near the caliber of this Boston team.
COUNTS: Celtics in 6 because I’m a homer.
GONZALEZ: Celtics in 6. Ultimately their defense is the advantage. I don’t see anyone on the Warriors who can stop the J’s from doing what they want to do consistently. I’ve said it before. The Celtics knew it was always going to be Golden State on the other side of the ECF hump. They drafted guys with length, size, and versatility to beat this Warriors team.
VINACCO: Celtics in 7 given the matchups and resilience built from the first three rounds.
