What’s Fueling The Boston Celtics’ Offensive Explosion?
The Boston Celtics are currently the best offense in NBA history (through fourteen games). With an Offensive Rating of 120.0, the difference between them and the second place *checks notes* Sacramento Kings of 2.9, is equal to the difference between the Kings and the tenth placed *checks notes again* Golden State Warriors…
What’s fueling the Celtics’ explosive start to the season? Behind the scenes, there are motives that won’t be mentioned going forward, but let’s just say that both a tough finals loss and the grueling media campaign of the 2022 summer likely lit a fire under some of the team’s leaders. The disrespect shown towards a team that has gone through multiple controversies over the years has yet again proven to thicken the skin of both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who currently rank 7th and 13th in PPG throughout the league.
With that said, there are a few things that the Celtics are doing schematically that have revolutionized their offense, and understanding ‘why’ might be equally as important as ‘how’ they’ve reached this offensive peak.
The most telling stat is the rise in True Shooting Percentage (TS%) from last year, which has risen from .578% to a league-best .619%. In simple terms, the ‘why’ here is that of a steepened learning curve. The Celtics learned firsthand in their finals loss to the Golden State Warriors that, generally speaking, due to the narrowed talent gap between the league’s elite and average players over the years, the team who takes the best shots often wins.
This sounds simple, but it’s not nearly as straightforward as it comes off (and it’s also not to say elite talent isn’t still paramount). Last year's Celtics team was a prime example of not understanding this, as they often over-relied on ‘hero-ball’, resulting in easily forced turnovers by defenses that were able to predict and position themselves accordingly to stop Boston’s offense before it even really started. The simple fact is that the Celtics lost the finals because they had to work harder to earn points less efficiently than the Warriors did.
Don’t believe that? Check out this graphic, courtesy of Synergy Sports;
These ten players’ teams have a combined record of 72–75, and only Giannis’ Bucks have a win percentage greater than 56%. The point is that isolation-based offensive basketball is both outdated and unreliable in the end, as the NBA has evolved to be able to combat most teams that over-rely on on-ball action…
This leads well into the next major change in Boston’s offensive philosophy:
There’s been a noticeable uptick in players working smart off the ball to create opportunities for each other and prevent bad situations before they arise, as opposed to switching off until they’re on the ball and then working hard to attempt to find good shots for themselves. In last year's Finals, the Celtics had a turnover rate of 17.6% and 15.4% overall throughout the playoffs. In contrast, this season’s Celtics team boasts the league's second-lowest turnover rate through fourteen games at just 12.9%. While one could counter-argue that these stats are skewed due to a more concentrated and tougher schedule during the playoffs and finals (a legitimate point), it doesn’t explain why the Celtics were also a better defensive team in those games than they are now.
What this change points towards is a shift in philosophy from last year's emphasis on never missing defensive assignments and relentless effort toward creating the league's best perimeter defense to a team that prioritizes finding good shots consistently over everything else. This is really the crux of the story — the Celtics' offensive explosion is fueled by a philosophical change from exerting mental energy on defense to mental energy on offense, resulting in fewer turnovers and more high-percentage shots.
Personnel moves, including the signing of Malcolm Brogdon and an elevation of Sam Hauser’s minutes, have also contributed to Boston’s offensive depth and versatility, notably taking pressure off of highly volatile offensive players such as Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, who likely at times had more offensive responsibility than desired (especially given their defensive outputs). The addition of Brogdon has created the three-headed monster (as I like to call it) of Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, and Derrick White, and makes for the undisputed most versatile backcourt in the NBA.
Last year it was plausible that both Smart and White could have off-games overlap, as opposed to this season where it’s highly unlikely that both of them and Brogdon all register poor offensive performances. The Brogdon addition also pushes undersized guard Payton Pritchard further down the bench, and more importantly, into a more sustainable role where he can operate as more of an off-ball threat and not as a backup point guard. His role, to date, has been limited outside of stints where Brogdon’s been rested, but he’s proven to be great insurance in the case that one of the main backcourt players falls, and it’s likely that his role will grow as the season progresses.
While Head Coach Joe Mazzulla (shout out to all Rhode Island Breakers alumni!!) is learning on the job, his offensive imprint looks evolutionary for a team that desperately needed to look themselves in the mirror following a hard-fought Finals loss to a team that utilized much of what Boston’s now copying. The result? Some of the most beautiful offensive basketball ever displayed.
