Why DeMar DeRozan is the Best Shooting Guard in the NBA
…and not just Canada
I received a lot of hate on Twitter when I tweeted “I think DeMar DeRozan is the best shooting guard in the NBA.” Rather than deleting my account or killing myself like a few people suggested, I decided to do what any basketball nerd would do in the same situation: open 19 Basketball-Reference tabs and back it up.
When scrolling through my notifications, the names that came up the most were the ones you’d expect: James Harden, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler and the occasional mention of C.J. McCollum.
So, before we get into the meat of this debate of who the primo two-guard, the best of the best, in the league is, lets take a quick glance at some numbers to get to know the candidates.
Also, a quick shout out to Basketball-Reference.com, ESPN’s Hollinger Player Statistics and the NBA’s official statistics page for all the numbers you see in this post.
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
Per 36 minutes: 23.9 points, 2.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.9 turnovers
Advanced: 18.6 PER, .597 TS%, 26.3 USG%
Notes: The dude can really shoot a basketball. Thompson finished second in the league in 3-pointers made and had the highest 3-point percentage (.425) and 3-point attempt rate (.469 — this one by a huge margin) of any of the guards on this list. Once scored 37 points in one quarter.
Why he’s not DeRozan: This may receive some hate, but there are teams that Thompson couldn’t excel with — say with Jose Calderon and the 2015–2016 Knicks — and maybe wouldn’t even top 20 points per game for. The 2015–2016 Warriors — who had the best regular season of all-time — revolutionized offense with their barrage of 3-pointers and floor spacing based on the pick-and-rolls (this is why Draymond Green had so many assists) and off-ball screens. Fascinating stuff, I recommend finding something Coach Nick has made on BBALLBREAKDOWN about the Warriors’ offense.
BUT, BACK TO MY MAIN POINT: Thompson is a system player. 81 percent of Thompson’s buckets were assisted last year, an extremely high number. Of his 1,386 field goal attempts from last year, 1,086 were jump shots and 84% of the 450 he made were assisted. This isn’t a player who excels off the dribble and playing in traffic, his .159 free throw attempt rate is over .300 lower than DeRozan’s. He’s not a guy that can create separation for himself to score off the dribble, but luckily for him, it was almost impossible for opponents to simply lock him off and play 4-on-4 basketball with the Warriors’ unprecedented intricacy regarding offensive spacing.
Scoring aside, he’s not a very good passer and a mediocre rebounder at best. Thompson did excel as an on-ball defender — which is why it’s confusing his defensive win shares (2.6) is the same as James Harden’s, but win shares is an overrated statistic — and closing out on jump shots.
But his fatal flaw? Thompson lost the 2015–2016 NBA Finals by dissing LeBron James before the series was over. Why not throw a rock as a wasp’s nest instead?
James Harden, Houston Rockets
Per 36 minutes: 27.4 points, 7.1 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 4.3 turnovers
Advanced: 25.3 PER, .598 TS%, 32.5 USG%
Notes: Houston was a mess, barely edging Utah to take the No. 8 seed in the playoffs before dropping to Golden State in five games. Harden scored more than double the number of points (2,376) the next highest player on his team (Trevor Ariza: 1,025) had. With the lack of a consistent distributor at point guard — was Ty Lawson even sober during the season? — Harden had to run his offense like no other elite shooting guard in the league. Led the league in free throw attempts, field goal attempts and field goals missed. Dated a Kardashian.
Why he’s not DeRozan: He’s a piss poor defender. His assist ratio, I think, has more to do with his team’s lack of a competent point guard than his actual ability to pass. He has one of the top offensive post players in the league in Dwight Howard (go ahead and @ me, guys) and only passed him the ball 4.5 times per game (8.7 percent frequency). The sad thing is, 1.2 of those passes became assists — a pretty solid ratio — as Howard shot 72.7 percent on passes coming from Harden. If these two superstars could’ve co-existed, Houston wins way more than 41 games and Harden is back in MVP contention.
On the defensive end, it’s a complete dumpster fire. Shaquille O’Neal’s words sum it up better than mine:
“The problem with James Harden is he has no leadership skills. I know for a fact as the main player when you come to play others will follow. If you’re the leader of a team, you gotta do what you’re supposed to do. If you don’t do what you’re supposed to do, then others will not do anything.
“You’ve got to man up and play defense … they teach you that in AAU and High School and Preschool.”
Maybe this is why the Rockets only salvaged together 41 wins. If your leader doesn’t put in the effort (and still receives a hefty paycheck), why should anyone else? I think that says enough.
Harden is one of the most talented players in the league, but I can’t put him at No. 1.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Per 36 minutes: 20.4 points, 4.7 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 1.9 turnovers
Advanced: 21.3 PER, .562 TS%, 24.4 USG%
Notes: Has really cool hair. By far the worst shooter of the elite shooting guards, but makes up for it with his ability to drive and draw fouls. The majority of his shots came within 5-feet of the basket, where he converted 63.4 percent (!!!) of the time. Quick hands means a lot of steals: 1.6 per 36 minutes.
Why he’s not DeRozan: Find something you’re good at, and excel at that. For someone who doesn’t shoot well, Butler took way too many jump shots. He shot 35.4 percent on 654 jump shots. On everything else (layups, dunks, bank shots etc.), he shot an astounding 64.3 percent. That’s really good. His free throw rate is .15 (2.5 attempts per 36 minutes) lower than DeRozan’s, which allows DeRozan to have an edge as an elite scorer. Creates a lot more for himself off the dribble, than say, Thompson, but isn’t quite elite yet on his own in that category. It’ll be interesting to see how Butler and Dwyane Wade complement each other in Chicago this season. Rajon Rondo may be the point guard Butler has needed, too.
C.J. McCollum, Portland Trailblazers
Per 36 minutes: 21.6 points, 4.4 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 2.5 turnovers
Advanced: 17.7 PER, .544 TS%, 27.1 USG%
Notes: McCollum deserved every dime of his maximum contract extension, I’ll start off by saying that. When I think of the top backcourts in the league, Dame Lillard and McCollum is slightly behind Kyle Lowry and DeRozan, but Portland’s high-octane scoring duo might be the most exciting one to watch outside of the San Francisco/Oakland Bay Area. Portland was projected to be a lottery team this year , and with only four players having a PER above 13.7, they probably should’ve been. McCollum’s scoring punch took the defensive pressure off of Lillard as the Trailblazers cruised to a shocking 44 wins.
Why he’s not DeRozan: McCollum burst onto this scene this season, having averaged 5.3 and 6.8 points per game before exploding for 20.8 in 2015–2016. Not taking anything away from him, but a lot of that was due to the increased touches after Portland’s roster imploded following the departure of LaMarcus Aldridge to San Antonio. Despite his sharp increase in playing time, McCollum’s PIE — Player Impact Estimate* — was only 11.2, the lowest of the elite shooting guards in this discussion. Throw in his deficiencies as a defender, and McCollum can’t be in discussion as the top shooting guard in the league. That being said, the sky is the limit for this 24-year-old. Come back in two years and we may be having a different discussion.
*PIE measures a player’s overall statistical contribution against the total statistics in games they play in. PIE yields results which are comparable to other advanced statistics (e.g. PER) using a simple formula.(PTS + FGM + FTM — FGA — FTA + DREB + (.5 * OREB) + AST + STL + (.5 * BLK) — PF — TO) / (GmPTS + GmFGM + GmFTM — GmFGA — GmFTA + GmDREB + (.5 * GmOREB) + GmAST + GmSTL + (.5 * GmBLK) — GmPF — GmTO)
Closing Points
Now we’ve come down to the moment of truth: if I’m starting an expansion team tomorrow, why is Toronto Raptors shooting guard DeMar DeRozan the player I put in my backcourt? He combines the top qualities of all the other top shooting guards in the league: he drives to the bucket with a relentless fire like Butler, finishing 58.2 percent of the time. When he can’t finish, DeRozan puts his body on the line like Harden, craving contact near the basket and earning trips to the charity stripe (12.0 per 100 team possessions), where he finishes 85 percent of the time. Talk about free points.
The shots that he shouldn’t be making, inefficient, long, mid-range two-pointers, are the ones he misses. However, DeRozan was sneaky good from the 10–14 ft. range, hitting 96 of his 226 shots from that area.
Nobody that plays shooting guard creates opportunities for themselves as well as DeRozan, except for maybe Harden.
Just over 70 percent of his buckets came unassisted, and that’s allowed his point guard, Kyle Lowry, to get Toronto’s other assets involved in the offensive game flow (the Raptors were fifth in the league with an offensive rating of 110.0).
Don’t confuse DeRozan’s ability to score on his own with being selfish, he’s not a ball stopper like many iso-dominant players (think, Carmelo Anthony when he lacks a sidekick in New York), he and Lowry still connected on 32.7 passes per game last season. He also fed the Raptors inside presences — Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas — 12.6 times per game.
DeRozan’s 3-point FG% was only .338, but he only took 1.8 per game compared to Harden, who took 8.0 per game while shooting .359 from behind the arc.
Not to mention, DeRozan’s 3-point percentage improved significantly this season. With Lowry — one of the league’s hardest working players — working with DeRozan, who turned down offers to ditch Toronto and play for a larger basketball market (including his hometown Los Angeles Lakers) this offseason, it’s hard to see that shot not continuing to improve as the Raptors have become, by far, the most serious threat to unseat LeBron James in the Eastern Conference after reaching the Conference Finals ensuing a 56-win regular season.
While 3-point barrages may or may not be a fad in the NBA, the pick-and-roll offense has been a staple of the league for years, and DeRozan does what many 3-and-D guards can’t do, convert as the ball handler in a PnR set. He generated .99 points per possession last year, which is in the 94th percentile in the league. He’s smart in making the right passes when driving down the lane, and can also use the pick to gain an extra step when he’s facing a double team from the defense.
And you know what? It’s much harder for teams to stop an elite scorer who can slice and dice a defense like DeRozan than it is a pure shooter. See how he handles top defenders like Avery Bradley and Kawhi Leonard in Head-to-Head match-ups.
His mix of tangible and intangible attributes: versatility in scoring, extreme athleticism in fast breaks/transition play, leadership and work ethic, make DeRozan not necessarily a clear choice, but the best choice for a team looking to make a run at The NBA Finals.
Also, happy birthday birthday, DeMar.
I’ll give a quick analysis on this one, too, before we head out:
Buddy Hield, New Orleans Pelicans
NBA Statistics: None.
Case closed.
