Why This NBA Finals Is Cleveland’s To Lose
On one side, we have the most dynamic offense possibly ever assembled. Three of the NBA’s top eleven players, and four of the top fifteen. The defensive player of the year, the greatest three-point shooter in NBA history, the streakiest three-point shooter in NBA history, and the all around best scorer in the NBA.
On the other side, we have the greatest player in basketball (by a relatively large margin), with two co-stars worthy of that title. A slew of niche-role players, who when given the right direction can come together at a championship level. And a coach who lets his players take the lead.
We’re talking about the Golden State Warriors, and the Cleveland Caveliers.
As a Celtics fan, I can’t even be bitter about this finals matchup. It’s what we all wanted, and more importantly, deserved as fans after a long year of witnessing the greatest league parody since the Jordan days.
While that didn’t necessarily convert to less exciting happenings, independent of the actual competitive aspect of the sport, there’s no question that everyone and their grandmothers knew who was going to meet in the Finals this year.
NOW, let’s get to the point. Who’s winning this thing, for real?
Obviously, it’s tough to say.
Here’s what I’m not going to do — use the regular season matchups as a reference. Here’s why — it’s the playoffs.. if you watch basketball, this needs no further explanation.
Here’s what I will do — explore two of the major points of importance for each team, how they can be successful, or why they could experience issues.
So, here are my Two Most Important Factors of the Finals (barring injuries, of course)
(LeBron going off will not be listed. We know he’s going to go off. He’s LeBron f*****g James. See the last seven NBA finals for reference.)
- Will LeBron James be able to get a similar defensive effort and awareness out of J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, & co.
— This is the big one for me. People love to remember Kyrie’s game winner, or how out of his mind LeBron played throughout the entire series, but what actually won the Cavs the Finals last year?
Quite simply, the swing of Klay Thompson and Draymond Green getting outplayed in the final two games by J.R. Smith and Kevin Love. Games six and seven of the NBA Finals saw maybe the first hard defense J.R. Smith has played since he’s stepped on an NBA court. And the difference was noticable to say the least. Nearly the same thing could be said for Kevin Love.
Everyone wanted to blame Steph Curry for his all of the sudden inability to create space for himself in the final minutes, when in reality, the Caveliers just all of the sudden figured out how to switch high on pick and roles without giving anyone space to operate. Kevin Love and J.R. weren’t just showing high, they were getting low and jumping the gun, playing Marcus Smart-like defense. It was absolutely incredible, to the point where I think even Steph was surprised by it.
I seriously think after going down 3–1, LeBron James literally threatened to end anyone who didn’t play defense’s life. There’s just no other way of raitionalizing J.R. Smith playing 35 minutes of A- defense.
Expect the Caveliers to win this series if they are able to defend at an elite level. Sure, the Warriors have added the greatest scorer in the game currently, but they also sacrificed depth, which could backfire if KD’s woes continue against LeBron.
(Leading into factor two)
2. Can Kevin Durant make the Warriors offense unstoppable, even when slowed down?
What’s made the Warriors so unstoppable in the past was their high tempo, simultaneous off ball action, with the ball switching hands more times than touching the floor (truly captivating stuff). Last year, we saw the Cavs play the ultimate bully ball — putting a hault on all of the ball movement, and forcing the Warriors to play 1–1 basketball. The Warriors wanted to play 5–5, or 3–3 basketball, not 1–1.
Thus, Golden State went out and got the best offensive 1–1 scorer in the league. Kevin Durant was supposed to be the cure for the only standing ‘weakness’ offensively speaking, as he can create an almost-good shot out of literally any situation. The idea behind this move is simple. Even if the Cavs ramp up their defense, a la last years final two Finals games, they would have enough self creating offense on the court to counter their tough defense.
THE PROBLEM: Kevin Durant has exhibited the ability to do this vs. everyone he’s ever faced.. except LeBron James.
LeBron James’ defense wasn’t the difference maker last NBA finals.. He almost always plays elite defense. It was everyone else’s defense that put them over the edge.
So lets suppose Cleveland decides to D up again, successfully stagnating the Warriors ball movement and forcing them into a slower, 1–1 game.
Now we’re faced with Kevin Durant having to score on LeBron James. Historically speaking, this doesn’t end well for KD.
Why is this Finals, then, the Cavelier’s to lose?
Quite simply, the Warriors are a better basketball team from top to bottom, but being the best basketball team doesn’t necessarily convert to winning the finals (as we saw last year).
If we were to list the top 7 players in this series, the Warriors would have five of them (Yes, Levi, Draymond Green is a better basketball player than Kevin Love), but, lets look at it a different way.
Who’s unstoppable? This is a one man list. We saw Steph get stopped, we’ve seen KD get stopped. LeBron James cannot be stopped. He is the best player in this finals by a fairly large margin (as earlier stated), and generally speaking, the team who wins the finals isn’t the best team, but the team with the best player on the court (with very few exceptions).
That’s why the question isn’t concerning Lebron, it’s concerning his teammates. He’s shown that all he needs out of them is good defense, and the ability to rebound, and knock down open shots. This is why this series is Cleveland’s to lose.
For me, this series goes one of two ways.
- Cleveland plays defense the way they played in Boston, and lose in six.
- Cleveland plays elite defense, and wins in six.
I don’t see this series going seven, I have no rational explanation why, other than I think that adjustments won’t be made as easily as they were last finals. These teams know who each other are, and really only have one way of going about their business towards eachother. Who’m evers tactics prove more succesful early on, I expect to win.
Win or lose, it will be because of Cleveland’s defense.
