Debunking the Myth of Winter Mortality
Do colder months bring with them a spike in mortality rates? Common sense can lead us to believe that as temperatures drop, so does our health, resulting in a spike in deaths/ illnesses during colder months. Yet, this assumed correlation between colder weather and increased mortality rates is false.
One might expect that in Colorado specifically where we have harsh winters, we would see a surge in deaths during the colder months between November — March. However, in my investigation of data presented by the CDC I didn’t find this to be true. At first I set out to create visualizations to prove this trend to be true. With no luck and after many tries to get the data to show what I thought to be correct, I came to the realization that maybe there is no correlation of death to cold weather.
These findings challenged my preconceived notions and prompted me to question the assumptions I held about seasonal health trends. Rather than pointing to the cold as the cause behind increased mortality, other factors emerge as possible causes.
One such factor contributing to the complexity of winter mortality is the prevalence of infectious diseases, specifically Influenza and Pneumonia, which often peak during the colder months. Influenza, in particular, tends to spread more easily in colder weather, leading to an increase in respiratory related deaths. In my analysis I did observe a spike of Influenza and Pneumonia in January — March making me believe that there is a higher cause of death related to this disease during the winter months. This highlights the importance of considering disease specific trends when analyzing the data over seasons.
Another surprise I found in the data was that Colorado almost follows the exact trend line compared to deaths from all states. It suggests that despite regional factors such as climate, demographics, and healthcare infrastructure, there may be overarching patterns linked to death rates that transcend geographical boundaries. I then went to compare Colorado as well as Alaska, being states that see harsh cold winters to the state of Florida expecting to see Colorado and Alaska have more Influenza and Pneumonia related deaths to further link cold weather to the cause of these deaths.
What I found was again the opposite of what I expected. Florida had way more Influenza and Pneumonia related deaths than both Colorado and Alaska. In fact Alaska being known as the state with the coldest temperatures had zero Influenza and Pneumonia related deaths across every graph. Although Colorado had less deaths compared to Florida they still did follow the same trend line showing that there could be correlation between seasons and Influenza and Pneumonia as the cause of death but didn’t give me correlation that a state’s temperature could affect the outcome.
Some of my observations suggest that the transition between seasons, rather than the seasons themselves, may hold valuable insights into mortality trends. A notable spike I saw in deaths within Colorado occurred during the transition from winter to spring, particularly in the months of March and April. 8/10 of the graphs showed a spike during these months. Then when looking into the months of November and December when winter usually starts setting in the years mortality rates are most of the time at an all time high for the year. These findings are leading me to believe that mortality rates occur when seasons are changing from winter to spring or fall to winter. But this trend does not occur over every single year. For example December and January in 2019 were at a low for death rates because the spike came in November leading me to believe that maybe the colder weather came earlier than usual in 2019.
While the analysis of mortality data has revealed interesting patterns and associations, it is essential to recognize the variability and complexity of mortality trends. While certain trends may emerge, such as the observed spike in deaths during the transition of seasons in many cases, it is crucial to acknowledge that mortality rates can fluctuate significantly from year to year. Based on a variety of factors. Factors such as disease outbreaks, changes in healthcare, and individual behaviors can all contribute to the fluctuation of mortality trends. So while seasonal patterns provide valuable insights into the possible correlation between environmental factors and human health, understanding the spikes in real time may be able to give better answers to rising or declining death rates that can be inferred more accurately than looking back on the data and trying to form conclusions.
