Exploring The Pandemic’s Influence on Boulder County Demographics and the Housing Market
How did the advent of the Coronavirus alter the fabric of various demographics? Through delving into Colorado’s demographic landscape and its intersection with the COVID-19 pandemic, a profound curiosity emerged. Exploring the rich tapestry of data encompassing diverse demographic and housing market metrics revealed a multitude of insights. Amidst the vast array of counties in Colorado, my focus naturally gravitated towards Boulder County. I wanted to explore the intricate shifts within the housing market over time and the subsequent overlay of COVID-19’s impact.
Zooming in on vacancy rates reveals a pivotal metric that serves as a barometer for housing supply and demand dynamics, geographic expansion, and various other socioeconomic indicators. Boulder County’s trajectory unveils a common narrative: the steady decline in vacancy rates from 2008 to 2016 reflected the nation’s recovery from the Great Recession, a turbulent time that heavily impacted the entire U.S. economy, but specifically real estate and the housing market. However, the onset of COVID in 2019 marked a stark reversal. Vacancy rates surged by an alarming 58% year-over-year, escalating to 5.53%. The following year of 2020 bore witness to another sharp uptick, reaching 6.19%.
The pandemic’s economic fallout, compounded by widespread job losses, led to a cascade of housing insecurities, massively increasing tensions and the strain on available housing stock. The actual number of vacant housing units in Boulder County skyrocketed by nearly 62%, surging to 7,716 in 2019, underscoring the profound impact of COVID-19 on the local housing landscape. Surges in vacancy rates can lead to a number of collateral effects that reverberate past just empty homes. Vacant properties can have a negative impact on the community well-being. Residents may find themselves grappling with lower quality of life.
Among the plethora of metrics that shine light on the housing market’s pulse, builder permit counts are an excellent gauge of healthiness. The significant decline from 2,954 permits in 2018 to 1,650 in 2019 paints a strong picture — one that is highly indicative of the profound effects of COVID. Supply chains struggled and building product companies grappled with tight constraints which ultimately hindered the flow of new projects. The tightening grip on deal flow underscored the deep reality; builders faced new hurdles in securing permits. New permits and new construction serve as a pillar for economic activity, job creation, and a vast array of other things. This 44% year-over-year represented a bottleneck which throttled progress and heightened the problem of housing shortage.
Boulder County also saw a plummet in net migration — the number of households moving into the county less the number moving out. Specifically, it dropped from 1,893 in 2018 to a mere 245 in 2019. This drastic change coupled with the rise in vacancy and the drop in permits can heavily upset the fragile balance of supply and demand. With fewer households relocating to the county and construction activity diminishing, economic growth and community development is stifled.
Amidst the hectic fluctuations in vacancy rates, building permits, and net migration — household size remained remarkably unchanged. Spanning from 2017 to 2020, the average household size in Boulder County held steady at 2.38. While one might expect shifts in household size as a response to events such as a pandemic, Boulder County showed stability in this area.
The year 2020 brought an increase in COVID cases. The total for the year reached a remarkable 14,706 confirmed cases. The subsequent year of 2021 brought a mix of optimism and challenges. Although confirmed cases surged to 25,086, the number of deaths dipped to 145, from 185 in the previous year. This can likely be attributed to the introduction of vaccines. The downward trend of case fatality rates persisted through 2022 with the percentage dwindling to a low 0.08%.
As the year 2024 has only just begun and the scars of the pandemic on both people and the housing market may still linger, there are considerable signs of progress and recovery on the horizon. Although COVID opened the door to immense change, the people of Boulder County have shown resilience and fortitude.
