About a third of air travel could be performed with liquid hydrogen aircraft
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has published a report “Performance analysis of evolutionary hydrogen-powered aircraft” with an analysis of the prospects for hydrogen-powered aircraft.
The study looks at potential fuel-related performance, costs and emissions, and the market for liquid hydrogen aircraft expected to enter service in 2035.
The authors evaluated two designs: a small-sized turboprop aircraft targeted at the regional market, and a narrow-body turbofan aircraft suitable for short to medium-haul flights. These designs have been compared to today’s popular ATR 72 and Airbus A320 neo models, respectively.
Both hydrogen aircraft designs would require a stretched fuselage to accommodate a liquid hydrogen tank behind the passenger cabin.
The researchers concluded that hydrogen aircraft are inferior in many ways (heavier, higher energy consumption per passenger kilometer, shorter flight range, etc.), but they could still play an important role in meeting aviation’s climate goals by 2050. It is estimated that a narrow-body aircraft with a liquefied hydrogen turbofan engine can carry 165 passengers up to 3,400 km, and a turboprop 70 passengers up to 1,400 km. Together they could serve about one-third (31 to 38%) of all passenger air travel from 2035.
In terms of fuel, refueling with green hydrogen will cost more than jet fuel (Jet A) used today for the entire period under review, but will be cheaper than blue hydrogen and e-kerosene — see graph above.
In 2021, the 77th Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) approved a resolution to achieve net-zero carbon emissions for the global air transport industry by 2050. The main role is given to alternative fuels. As shown in the graph below, 65% of emission reductions should be achieved through the transition to new “sustainable” fuels, 19% through carbon capture and offset measures, 13% through new technologies, 3% through infrastructure efficiency. According to the IATA baseline scenario, by 2035, electric and/or hydrogen aircraft for regional transportation (50–100 seats, flights 30–90 minutes) should be available on the market.
To make green liquefied hydrogen cost-competitive, you need to pay for emissions. Break-even compared to Jet A is expected to be between $102 and $277 per tonne of CO2 in 2050, depending on geography. This echoes quite closely the calculations of the German think tank Agora Energiewende.
Under the most optimistic assumptions, the considered types of aircraft can limit the growth of emissions from 2035, but not reduce them. Modeling has shown that the share of such aircraft in global aviation passenger-kilometers could be between 20% and 40%, and this would reduce emissions by 126–251 Mt CO2e in 2050, which is between 6% and 12% of passenger aviation emissions. Therefore, to achieve the ambitious climate goals of global aviation, other technologies are needed, including more fuel-efficient aircraft and cleaner aviation fuel, as well as measures to curb traffic growth.
Last December, the British Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI) introduced the FlyZero aircraft concept, powered by liquid hydrogen and capable of flying up to 5,000 nautical miles (over 9,000 km) without refueling.
Earlier it was reported that Airbus promises to introduce a hydrogen aircraft by 2035.
I would like to thank Dan Kreibich and the rest of the SQUAKE team for the help.
