Green hydrogen will be cheaper than gray hydrogen in two years

Research firm Rethink Energy has published a report on the prospects for the hydrogen market Hydrogen to Clean Up Energy with $10 Trillion Spend.

By 2050, the accumulated global investment in the hydrogen economy will reach $10 trillion, the authors predict. This will create powerful economies of scale and lead to a significant reduction in capital costs and the cost of hydrogen.

What’s more, in just two years, green hydrogen produced by electrolyzers powered by renewable electricity will become cheaper than gray hydrogen in some markets. By 2026, this will be the case all over the world, even in oil and gas countries, the authors believe, apparently taking into account not only the growing payment for emissions but also high gas prices. [on the issue of competitiveness of green/grey hydrogen, there are conflicting assessments: according to Morgan Stanley green hydrogen may equal the price of gray as early as 2023, while Agoda Energiewende states that even 200 euros per tonne of CO2 will not make green hydrogen competitive].

With announced production plans, global electrolyzer capacity is likely to be well over 100 GW by 2030, more than enough to meet existing government or corporate targets, Rethink said.

The learning rate for pots is predicted to be 14%. That is, the cost of a unit of output will decrease by 14% every time output doubles. And that’s without any (possible) technological breakthroughs that could accelerate cost…