Road haulage: hydrogen or battery?
Some time ago the answer to this question seemed obvious. Lithium-ion electric trucks were considered:
- too expensive
- too heavy
- too short on a single charge.
However, the situation is changing. According to Transport & Environment (European Federation for Transport and Environment), these three statements are “at best inaccurate and at worst completely wrong.”
Cargo transportation on “battery trucks” is no longer a pipe dream. This is confirmed by European manufacturers, who are now focusing on bringing battery-electric trucks to the mass market in all segments, including long-haul transportation. The authors provide a list of manufacturers, including Daimler, MAN, Scania, Volvo, and Renault Trucks.
The reason they seem to be betting on batteries instead of fuel cells for most vehicles ultimately comes down to economics.
Opponents argued that batteries were only suitable for short hauls, while fuel cell trucks (or even e-fuels) would succeed in the long-haul segment. This turned out to be a mistake, says Transport & Environment categorically.
Energy efficiency differences mean that trucks running directly on electricity will always use half as much electricity as those running on clean hydrogen. Because trucks are a heavily used capital commodity, the operating cost advantage of battery-electric trucks will increase with increasing mileage. Moreover, they require less maintenance than any other technology. Both battery and hydrogen fuel cell truck technologies will remain more expensive to acquire than their diesel counterparts in the coming years. But buying a truck is only one part of the equation, and the other is fuel and maintenance costs.
The bulk of the cost of an electric truck is the big battery. Car batteries are now rapidly falling in price following the rapidly growing production scale in the passenger car segment. Now, this trend will spread to trucks.
What about range or payload? It turns out that trucks don’t need a range of thousands of miles to do their job. About 80% of freight traffic in Europe is carried out over distances of less than 800 km. With a dense network of charging infrastructure in the near future, electric trucks will be able to recharge during mandatory driver rest periods. And with the continued increase in battery energy density, by 2025 electric long-range batteries will become lighter.
All this does not mean that hydrogen will not be used in the decarbonization of heavy vehicles. Greater flexibility and range certainly give fuel cell trucks an advantage in some cases. When operating in areas without charging infrastructure, when transporting heavy and special cargo, as well as for transportation within port logistics and industrial clusters, where clean hydrogen will be available first.
According to Transport & Environment’s calculations for the case of Germany, electric (battery) trucks with a mileage of 800 km will outpace diesel ones in terms of the total cost of ownership until 2025 (the year of purchase). Meanwhile, European truck manufacturers intend to begin mass production of fuel cell trucks only in the second half of the decade.
In other words, there is a possibility that the competition may end before it starts.
I would like to thank Dan Kreibich and the rest of the SQUAKE team for the help.
