Scientific evidence confirms the increase in extreme weather events

The European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC) published Extreme Weather Events in Europe: Preparing for Climate Change Adaptation (2013 EASAC Study Update). EASAC is formed by the National Academies of Science of the EU Member States, Norway, and Switzerland to cooperate in advising European politicians.

This 2013 report, which looked at extreme weather trends in Europe, argued for an increase in the frequency and economic costs of extreme events and stressed the importance of considering these extremes in public planning.

Back in 2017, members of the expert group updated some of the statistics on which the initial report was based. New evidence has also emerged on some of the underlying factors, including the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (large-scale circulation of water in the Atlantic Ocean), and other phenomena such as weakening and increasing “tortuosity” of the jet stream. The new data confirmed the conclusions of the original report on an expanded evidence base.

The report notes a particularly rapid increase in extreme hydrological events.

Globally, floods and other hydrological events have quadrupled since 1980 and doubled since 2004, according to new data. Climate events such as extreme temperatures, droughts, and wildfires have more than doubled since 1980. The number of meteorological events such as storms has doubled.

These extreme weather events bring significant economic costs. Thunderstorm losses in North America have doubled, from about $10 billion in 1980 to almost $20 billion in 2015, according to updated data. At the same time, despite the increased frequency of floods in Europe, financial losses practically do not grow there, which the authors associate with the implemented protection measures.

An important part of the report is devoted to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is of immense importance for the climate in Western Europe.

Recent monitoring suggests that there has been a significant weakening of the AMOC, but there is still considerable controversy over whether it can simply “turn off” due to increased flows of fresh water from the northern latitudes as a result of precipitation and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The organization will continue to monitor.

The authors of the study believe that climate protection can help limit the impact of extreme weather events and that European political leaders should improve the adaptation of the region’s infrastructure and social systems to climate change.

I would like to thank Dan Kreibich and the rest of the SQUAKE team for the help.