Weekly Insights #30
May 11: The crypto market is experiencing a rally led by BTC and ETH, with the latter nearing the $200 mark, and it’s turning the sentiment positive across the entire crypto space. There is still some doubt in the air regarding drama surrounding Tether and the recent Binance hack, but investors don’t seem to mind these issues. This behaviour may very well mean the bear market is indeed over, because bear markets typically end when the news remains bad but the market stops going down.
“Crypto is a myth to most humans, belief to some, and truth for a limited few.” — Chris Burniske
NOTEWORTHY NEWS
Ethereum 2.0 Proof-of-Stake Testnet Blockchain is Live — May 8, Cointelegraph
An Ethereum (ETH) 2.0 Proof-of-Stake testnet blockchain is now live, announced Preston Van Loon, co-founder of sharding development firm Prysmatic Labs, on May 7. An upcoming new Ethereum chain will feature improvements in security, scalability, and decentralization, and will not be introduced to the current Ethereum network by means of a hard fork. Instead, users will be able to transfer value from the current Proof-of-Work (PoW) chain to the new PoS ETH 2.0 chain via a one-way smart contract.
Facebook Softens Policy on Crypto and Blockchain Ads — May 9, Coindesk
Over a year after its outright ban, Facebook has further lifted some restrictions on cryptocurrency and blockchain-related advertisements. In an updated policy announced on May 8, Facebook said ads involving blockchain technology, industry news, educational content, and events related to cryptocurrency will no longer require prior written approval.
Binance CEO Publishes Security Incident Update — May 10, Cointelegraph
Changpeng Zhao (CZ), CEO of Binance, has published an update on the exchange’s security revamp and investigation into this week’s 7K BTC hack ($40M). CZ also apologized for having fuelled community concerns by openly discussing the possibility of incentivizing a blockchain re-organization — or transaction rollback — as a possible response to the attack.
OUR OPINION: The fact that CZ even thought about a potential Bitcoin re-org is very strange, as someone who is leading one of the largest crypto exchanges should know that immutability is one of the most important aspects of cryptocurrency and that the suggested re-org is virtually impossible to conduct in practice, suggesting that he was trying to move the focus from the hack to something else. Binance is one of the most exposed exchanges to the systemic risk of Tether, and it’s possible that they just wanted to prevent users from withdrawing funds, as they restricted withdrawals until the situation with Tether settles. Another strange aspect of this hack is that the hackers obtained a large number of API keys and 2FA codes, but trading was not suspended like it was in July last year when API keys were compromised. Funds might not be #SAFU, and we suggest avoiding Tether-based exchanges.
Schnorr Signatures Await Bitcoin Cash as Next Upgrade Draws Near — May 7, Bitcoin.com
Bitcoin Cash has a network upgrade via hard fork every 6 months in their road map, and the next one is scheduled for May 15. The main feature of the upcoming upgrade is the addition of Schnorr signatures, which will reduce transaction size and improve privacy, with future upgrades enabled by Schnorr signatures.
Chinese Social Media Giant WeChat Bans Crypto Transactions in its Payment Policy — May 7, Cointelegraph
WeChat, a popular messaging and payment provider in China, has banned cryptocurrency trading deals via their app in new policy changes. The new rules will be enforced on May 31, and accounts engaging in cryptocurrency trading will be terminated. Many OTC crypto deals in China currently happen via WeChat.
OUR OPINION: China is turning into a digital totalitarian state with its social credit score system, and companies in China are heavily influenced by the state. It is very likely that this decision was not made by the company itself, and it is expected that crypto will be forbidden entirely, as it directly enables citizens and companies to conduct permissionless transactions and store wealth in vehicles that cannot be controlled by the government.
US Rep Sherman Calls for Crypto Ban, Says It Threatens to Diminish American Power — May 10, Cointelegraph
US Congressman Brad Sherman suggested outlawing cryptocurrencies for US citizens because they undermine the global power of the US due to the current status quo of USD as a world reserve currency and its relation to oil purchases. The video can be seen here.
OUR OPINION: What Rep. Sherman stated is exactly what Bitcoin is trying to change, in addition to other things. USD gives the US enormous global power, and they have been trying to keep the status quo for many years, waging wars against oil-producing countries that want to sell oil for other currencies.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Blockchain Week and Consensus Begin in New York
Historically, excluding the crypto market movements of 2018, the bitcoin price has gained on average 77% and altcoins 161% in the two months following Consensus. The rally we’re seeing at the moment may have been caused by the positive sentiment of traders and investors who are currently attending one of the world’s biggest crypto conferences in New York.
MARKET OVERVIEW & METRICS
Weekly Crypto Stats
- Global network value reached $192.4B, with 6.65% weekly delta.
- Global crypto market turnover was $55.3B, 23.2% from ATH.
- Real 10 market turnover was $1.64B, 36.67% weekly delta.
- Bitcoin dominance is 58.1%, with 5.83% weekly delta, beta 0.84.
- Ethereum dominance is 9.7% with 0.21% weekly delta, beta 1.29.
- Bitcoin hashrate is 49.98B TH/s, with -7.46% weekly delta.
- Ethereum hashrate is 153.60K GH/s, with 0.14% weekly delta.
CHART OF THE WEEK
Bitcoin has outperformed every coin in the top 10 over the last month. On average, the top 10 coins by market cap are down more than 30% against bitcoin. As the second best performer, ether has managed to lose “only” 20% vs. BTC. The BTC vs. alt cycle theory is briefly explainedhere.
This content has been put together by Marko Štemberger and Tilen Držan. Feel free to contact us for any feedback or if you have questions. Information provided above is not to be considered as an investment advice.
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