Lately there has been a narrative circling of a Clinton decline. I not only think it is false, but that it drastically mischaracterizes the present condition of the American electorate.
In the middle of August everyone thought that the election was wrapped up. Clinton was going to walk into the White House. Trump was done for.
Not so fast…
Election polling has the race tightening, Democrats are running scared, Trump is beating his chest, and the world waits to see what our decision will be.
Terror attacks are cropping up in New York and New Jersey, there was a stabbing in a Minnesota mall, and we had a pair of shootings in Philadelphia.
It’s all hit the fan, right?
This is where I think the narrative gets it seriously wrong. I have the benefit of being a Northeast voter and college student, but I was raised in the South.
The breadth of diversity between the two locales is immense.
Unions never took hold in the South. It was a much more agrarian society. But, if you take a trip to Center City Philly there are remnants of an industrial juggernaut.
While the societies were built around different industries, both regions of the country have something in common: they can spot a phony. This is where I think Trump is in trouble.
The name of the game is turnout, and that is where the Democrats are going to have the edge. The Clinton ground game is built to compete in a heavy majority of the country. This is especially true in key swing states. The volunteers will be getting voters to the polls and making their final stand. Trump has no one to stand with him. He doesn’t even have a Miami campaign office.
I tossed out the idea of Clinton winning Mississippi in conversation to a couple of friends during her post convention bounce. They all thought I was crazy. Even though the polls are tight, I still think Clinton has the backing of the “Silent Majority.” The polls can pull as close as they want, no ground game and no loud mouth can beat the Clinton infrastructure.
Without that infrastructure the panic would be needed. It isn’t panic time yet.
Trump is too brash for many Americans. They may not say it in conversation, in phone polls, or out loud to themselves, but it’s true. I honestly believe that millions of Americans are going to step into the voting booth and look at the two names, and make a hard but simple choice.
I still have an excessively sober outlook on this election. I never drank the kool aid. This is going to be close, and it will be a fight for every vote.
It is a contrast of ideas and ideals, but I honestly believe that, regardless of my personal preferences, Clinton will come out on top.
Whether you come from the North, South, Midwest, or out West it is our duty to vote. I just think the country will go blue this time.