How the 2019–20 Premier League Season could end?
In the current world without any sport being played, football fans have been hit the hardest. Living without football is almost like living without oxygen. We are anxious to know what will happen to the clubs and competitions we love and support. Will the different competitions resume, get cancelled or be finished via some new innovative solution?
Some of the top divisions across Europe have taken different decisions regarding their footballing seasons. Eredivisie, the Dutch Football League, has been cancelled with no champions or relegation. La Liga Santander and Serie A (Spanish and Italian leagues’ top division respectively) have allowed individual training at the training complexes. Bundesliga, the German league, has released a schedule to complete the remaining fixtures but with no fans in the stadiums.
This leaves the Premier League, the English top division. Premier League executives are considering a plan which has been named Project Restart.
They are considering holding matches at neutral venues which has seen some opposition from the bottom half teams. Another method which could solve the problem of completing the league has been reportedly suggested by the clubs in the Championship (2nd division of English football). It is the one which has been used to complete France’s Ligue 1: mathematical formulas. Ligue 1 has been decided on the basis of points-per-game(PPG). This has led to Paris St. Germain being crowned champions for the 9th time. Only 2 teams were relegated, with the relegation playoff being cancelled.
Now, the question arises is that if a mathematical formula is used, what will be the impact on the Premier League. There have been two not-so different formulas suggested: One, the points-per-game system, which would give a points average. Two, the weighted average.
The Simple Average Method
The final table will be produced by dividing each team’s current tally of points with the number of games each of them have played. This would give a points average or points-per-game (PPG). This average would then be multiplied by 38 –the number of games each team plays in a season — to give the final points tally (calling it the Calculated Points Tally — CPT). Existing Goal Difference(GD) would be used to separate clubs if any of them have the same PPG value.
The Weighted Average Method
In the weighted average method, PPG would be calculated separately for home and away games, with the resulting value for each being multiplied by 19 — the number of home and away games each team plays in a season. These two totals would be added to give the final CPT. Existing GD would be used to separate clubs if any of them have the same points tally.
Before we look at the various scenarios, here’s how things stand currently in the Premier League:
Having applied these formulas to the current season, some interesting observations can be made. Irrespective of the formula used, the top 5 and the teams from 12th to 15th see no change in their positions as compared to the current table.
Hence Liverpool will be crowned champions, Manchester City, Leicester City and Chelsea would earn themselves the automatic UEFA Champions League spots and Manchester United completing the top 5, irrespective of the formula applied.
The Implications
When the simple average system is applied, Arsenal leapfrog Tottenham Hotspur into 8th, courtesy of a slightly better PPG (1.429 to Spurs’s 1.414) and a game in hand.
As we move down the table, there are no changes in position as compared to the current table. This means Aston Villa and Norwich get relegated with Bournemouth being the 3rd team, courtesy a poor GD compared to Watford and West Ham (all have same CPT of 35.379, with GDs being -18,-17 and -15 respectively).
When the weighted average method is used, some surprises are thrown up. Tottenham stay 8th due to their superior home record (Spurs 26 pts in 14 home games, Arsenal have 26 pts in 15 home games). This home record allows Spurs to mitigate an away record worse than Arsenal’s (Spurs 15pts in 15 away games, Arsenal 14 pts in 13 away games. Also, Crystal Palace jump above Burnley into the top half by the skin of their teeth (CPT of 50.938 with Burnley’s being 50.847).
In the fight for relegation, West Ham are the 3rd team to get relegated along with Aston Villa and Norwich. What sinks the Hammers is their worse Home record (15pts in 14 home games, PPG of 1.071) than those around them (Watford and Bournemouth having identical records — 17pts in 14 home games, PPG of 1.214). Their comparatively good away record (PPG of 0.8) is not enough to help them survive here (Brighton: PPG of 0.733, Watford and Bournemouth: PPG of 0.667).
The Winners
One team that definitely stands to benefit from the application of these formulas is Sheffield United as they will move up to 6th. This is due to the fact that they have a game in hand (28 games; Wolves 29 games) while being level on points with Wolves (43 pts). This could be crucial as Manchester City face the prospect of being banned from Champions League. Should they be banned, the 5th placed team would qualify for the Champions League and the 6th placed would qualify for the Europa League group stages.
The Losers
Another team that has a game in hand from teams around them, is Aston Villa. But despite that, they cannot survive the drop if any of these formulas is applied. They have a comparably good home record (PPG of 1.307, bettered only by Crystal Palace, Everton and Newcastle in the top half). What sinks them is their bad away record of just 2 wins in 15 away games (their PPG of 0.533 is only better than Norwich’s — 0.4).
As we can see, finishing the season using these formulas leads to gigantic outcomes due to such fine margins. This is the reason why teams like Aston Villa continue to oppose the possible decision of playing without fans, because in a stadium like Villa Park fans support will be crucial for staying up.
Teams know how important it is to stay in the Premier League, especially with the financial benefits that it entails.
The next question that arises is that, is this a fair method to complete the league? Or maybe not? This is a decision Premier League executives would have to take in consultation with the clubs and keeping the fans in mind.
Sources: Premier League, Wales Online
