Trump’s economic achievements? Not so fast.

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Stan Crock’s blogs

14 min readJan 26, 2020

This is a list created by a Trump supporter of Trump economic “achievements.” A good childhood friend who doesn’t like Trump the person but supports him politically sent it to me. My friend does not vouch for these claims. I’m glad because he shouldn’t. He didn’t send me the list to analyze, just to see what a Trump supporter was saying. But I look at assertions and compare them with facts. It’s in my nature. So here goes, with endnotes (the Trump supporter didn’t bother to provide any to support his or her assertions). Of the 32 claims — some are redundant — only three are unqualified. That is, some may be true but misleading because the numbers provide no context.

1. Eliminated the world’s Number One terrorist

True. If anyone deserved to die, it is Soleimani. That’s the not the real issue, though. The real issue is whether we are safer or not. (Trump told some associates that his motivation was not an imminent attack or that he said some bad words about the U.S. but rather his need to shore up Senate support for impeachment.) We don’t know yet if we are safer. Let’s see if the militias Iran supports around the world retaliate. Let’s see if Trump is now able to negotiate a better deal with Iran than Obama did (which everyone in Europe and the International Atomic Energy Agency said was working; Iran was in compliance and had delayed its nuclear development significantly). Can Trump negotiate something like his beautiful deal with North Korea, which he says no longer poses a nuclear threat? Oh, I forgot. There isn’t a deal, and Pyongyang is testing again. And Iran is proceeding full tilt to develop nuclear capacity, with no deal on the horizon and no direct contact between the two countries. This does not make me feel safer.

2. CNN Poll: US economy receives its best ranking in nearly 20 years

True, and that’s great. No qualifications.

3. 328,000 new jobs created during December 2019

Wrong. The number was less than half that: 143,000.[i]

4. 7,300,000 new jobs have been created since the election

With generous rounding up, this is true. But it conveniently ignores the fact that job growth is slowing under Trump. The boast is artfully stated to include three months when Trump wasn’t even in office (November and December 2016, and January 2017), evidently on the dubious assumption that the mere election of Trump caused a bump in hiring. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment survey data, the total for 2017–2019 was 6.9 million.[ii] This includes 227,000 jobs in January 2017[iii]. The 334,000 jobs in November and December 2016 bring the total to 7.234 million,[iv] which you can round up (improperly) to 7.3 million.

Of course, the issue is not the absolute number but how it compares with a reasonable baseline, say, the Obama Administration’s last three years plus the preceding November and December. During that period, the Obama administration created 8.3 million jobs.[v] And it didn’t have the “benefit” of Trump’s tax cut.

5. Passed tax reform bills that reduced taxes for individuals and corporations

Technically true. Companies made out like bandits, and most workers got a cut but don’t notice the trivial amount. And the individual tax cuts will expire while the corporate tax cuts, which flow to the top 1%, won’t.

The real question is whether the tax cuts did what Trump promised. We see that job growth is slowing. Wealth inequality is growing.[vi] Did employers use the tax cuts to boost worker pay? Nope. Real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased a paltry 0.6 percent from December 2018 to December 2019, but the 0.6 percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in essentially no change in real average weekly earnings in 2019.[vii] Did the tax cut result in more capital investment and foreign inflows of capital or did it pay for itself. Nope on all counts. Capital investment is shrinking, foreigners aren’t flocking here, and we have record deficits, which Republicans blithely ignore as they always do when Republicans, rather than Democrats, are in the White House.[viii]

6. GDP above 3%

True for one quarter. GDP growth reached 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019.[ix] It was 2 percent in the second quarter and 2.1 percent in the third quarter.[x] That’s an average of 2.4 percent. Where is the 6 percent growth Trump promised?[xi] GDP growth was 2.2% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018.[xii] So it looks as if the sugar high from the tax cut in 2018 is wearing off. For context, GDP growth has averaged 3.21 percent since 1947. The adjective for Trump’s performance is lackluster. Take this off the boast list, too.

Here, interestingly, Trump overall is doing slightly better than Obama, but context matters. Obama exceeded 5 percent once and four percent in three other quarters.[xiii] Trump has not come close to that. Ever. Excluding the 2.8 percent Bush-caused drop in GDP growth in Obama’s first term, however, Obama’s growth averaged 2.1 percent.[xiv] That is slow unless you consider he was getting the economy back on its feet from the worst recession since the Depression. And the recession was not a typical, self-correcting business cycle downturn but a financial crisis recession. Bouncing back from a financial crisis, which freezes the credit system, always takes longer than the rebound from a business cycle recession.

By the standards of financial crisis recessions, Obama did well. I wrote about this for Investopedia after reading This Time is Different by Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. According to the book, on average unemployment following financial crises rises for almost five years, with an increase in the rate of seven percentage points. The average decline in GDP is 9.3%, and the time from peak to trough is two years. During the Obama administration, unemployment rose 5.6 percentage points, not seven, and it rose for only two and a half years, not five. Meanwhile, GDP dropped for seven quarters (just shy of two years), and by 4.3%, not 9.3%, according to the Commerce Department. While it was the steepest drop in the post-war period, it is less than half the average for this kind of recession. And the authors point out that the U.S. faced a big obstacle: this was a global blowout so the U.S. could not export its way out of it, as other economies could in the past. What’s Trump’s excuse for his slower-than-average growth? This is another talking point Trump supporters should shelve.

7. USMCA passed that will create 300,000 new jobs

The first part is true. USMCA did pass. And that’s a good, if overblown, achievement. With the exception of updating NAFTA to reflect the advent of the digital age and a few numbers changes, the USMCA looks as if it was copied and pasted from NAFTA.[xv] We’ll have to see if the 300,000 jobs come through or whether they are like the promised 6 percent GDP growth. Why would anyone believe numbers from this mendacious administration?

8. Phase One of the China deal, which is the biggest trade win of all

Wrong. Trump achieved hardly any of his stated objectives at the start of the negotiations. [xvi]

9. Japan trade deal

True, Trump signed a limited deal. But it is worse that the Trans-Pacific Partnership he pulled out of.[xvii]

10. Business confidence index up 162% since the last month of the Obama administration

Which index is this and which planet was it on? The Purchasing Managers Index has been in a pretty steady decline since March, and the last five months have been below 50, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity.[xviii] The Business Roundtable’s CEO Outlook has dipped for seven straight quarters.[xix] Moody’s Analytics shows a steady decline during 2019.[xx] These are what I find when I search for a business confidence index. I found a mention of 162% in a Yahoo News post but no story about it. Whatever it is, it clearly is out of whack with the standard business confidence indices.

11. $13.1 TRILLION growth in corporate value increase since Trump election

I found no support for this in my search. But let’s say it’s true. Thanks to the 230% rise in the S&P 500 under Obama, Trump benefitted from a higher baseline than Obama had because of the Bush recession. A 10% rise for Trump would have a much higher value than a 10% rise for Obama. It’s arithmetic, not genius economic strategy. If you use percentages instead of absolute numbers, the picture is different (see #13 below).

12. Business and consumer confidence index at an all-time high

Wrong. I’ve already discussed business confidence. The peak for the consumer confidence index was in 2000. It has been pretty static during the Trump administration, but soared from the recession depths under Obama.[xxi]

13. Stock market up 58% since Trump was elected, at an all-time high

Wrong number but yes, an all-time high. After three years in office, the S&P 500 rose 45.7% under Trump but more — 58.9% — during Obama’s final three years.[xxii]

14. 5.0% wage increase for the middle class in 2018 and 3.4% for the 1st 9 months of 2019

Wrong. Median family incomes rose a meager 1.3% annually in Trump’s first two years.[xxiii] Average hourly earnings multiplied by hours worked by production and non-supervisory workers actually are down under Trump, presumably because the number of hours worked has declined.[xxiv]

15. Made NATO members pay their 2% of GDP

Wrong. Only 7 of 29 members devote 2% of GDP to defense.[xxv] But this is a stupid fight. The first question is what NATO’s strategy should be. Then what its needs are. Then how much it should cost. Then how much each country should pay. Trump gets it backwards and puts the last question first. And this makes it sound as if countries are paying NATO 2% of their GDP. They’re not. 2% is the amount they are supposed to allocate to their own defense budgets. The NATO budget is a fraction of that, about $2.5 billion a year, less than what Washington spends in a day on defense.

16. Average household income up $5000 this year, the biggest increase in history

Wrong. That’s the total for Trump’s three years in office. And it’s a number from a research firm, Sentier Research, that didn’t use the government household income measurement that everyone else uses.[xxvi] I have no idea what numbers it did use. By the way, the trajectory under Obama was much steeper once the recession hit its trough.[xxvii]

17. Middle class expanding

True there were stories about this in 2018, but the data ended in 2016, before Trump was in office.[xxviii]

18. Eliminated 800+ job killing regulations implemented by Obama

True, Trump eliminated regulations. But there’s no evidence they killed jobs. How can you say they did when employment continued to grow under Obama? Which jobs got killed? This is an assertion without proof.

19. 700,000 new manufacturing jobs

Not even close. Try 487,000.[xxix] That’s good. Why lie about it? I guess it’s congenital.

20. More Americans are employed now than ever before in our history

True.[xxx] And the American population is larger than ever before in our history.[xxxi] Duh. If we didn’t have record employment with a record population, we would be in serious doodoo.

21. Jobless claims at lowest level in nearly five decades

True. No qualifications.

22. The economy has achieved the longest positive job-growth streak on record

True. Seven out of the 10 years were in the Obama administration.

23. Job openings are at an all-time high

Wrong. Job openings have been declining since January, shrinking from 7.63 million to 6.8 million.[xxxii]

24. Job vacancies outnumber job seekers for the first time on record

True. And it’s true even though the number of people with multiple jobs (presumably to scrape together enough money for rent and food) is rising. The figures for every month in 2019 were higher than any corresponding month during the Obama administration.[xxxiii] Forcing people to work multiple jobs is not a sign of the best economy ever, one that is increasing wages at a tolerable rate. (But see #28.)

25. Repealed Obamacare mandate.

True. Other than making good on a campaign promise, I’m not sure what this achieved. It undoes a Republican idea, one the Heritage Foundation recommended and Mitt Romney implemented in Massachusetts to get rid of free riders. (Those who pay nothing still get treated, and the rest of the population covers those costs. Republican/conservative economists don’t like that, so they want everyone to chip in.) Nearly two million fewer people have healthcare under Trump.[xxxiv] That’s an achievement. Why isn’t it on the list? And where is the beautiful, cheaper, and better health plan Trump promised? The GOP had seven years under Obama and three under Trump to come up with something. They’ve got nada. They don’t know how to govern.

26. Unemployment claims at 50 year low

Same as above for jobless claims. Still true.

27. Obliterated ISIS

Wrong. The caliphate is over, but ISIS still operates.[xxxv]

28. Cut illegal immigration in half

Wrong. Estimates are based on apprehensions, which have been around 400,000 since the Obama administration and actually ticked up in 2018. By the way, bragging about more job openings than job seekers (a drag on the economy) while cutting immigration makes the administration look as if it has trouble connecting dots. Duh.

29. African-American, Hispanic, and Asian-American unemployment rates all reached record lows under Trump

True (based on December 2019 data) and that’s great.[xxxvi] But the rates for all three groups have risen since their lows. And the drops during Trump’s three years are less than the percentage point and percentage drops under Obama during his last three years. All data compare December 2016 to December 2019 for Trump and December 2013 to December 2016 for Obama. The unemployment rate decline for African Americans under Trump is 2 percentage points and 25% while for Obama it was 4 percentage points or 34%. The Hispanic unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 4.2% under Trump, a decline of 1.7 percentage points and 29%. Under Obama, it shrank from 8.3% to 5.9%, a drop of 2.4 percentage points and 30%. Asian-American unemployment edged down from 2.7% to 2.5% under Trump, two-tenths of a percentage point and 0.08%. Obama’s numbers: a rate that shrank from 4.3% to 2.7%, 1.5 percentage points and 35%.

30. Worked to bring companies back to the U.S., companies like Toyota, Mazda, Foxconn, Broadcom Limited announced plans to open U.S. plants

If Foxconn is any indication, I would stay away from this “achievement.” Not sure where to start. Foxconn founder Terry Gou just told his workers in Taipei he hopes they will come to the U.S. to work in the Wisconsin plant. So much for hiring badgers. The plant is way behind schedule, and the company now says it will begin production this year — after saying it would not build at all because of higher labor costs in the U.S. than in Asia. The company reduced the size and scope of the $10 billion manufacturing center it committed to build, and it missed its maximum first-year hiring target by 82%. Republican Governor Scott Walker, who with Trump agreed to $4 billion in subsidies for Foxconn, lost his 2018 reelection bid partly because of the deal’s woes. Foxconn doesn’t have an adequate supply chain in Wisconsin so many of its vendors will be out-of-state. It apparently has defined Michigan (where a big supplier is) as part of Wisconsin to comply with contract provisions.

31. 6.2 million Americans off food stamps and into the labor force, which equates to 6.2 less people voting for a democrat

Let’s start with the numbers. It comes from Breitbart and other conservative media, and it’s old. The actual decline is about 10 million people. But under Trump, there are only 7.3 million new jobs. Some people left the work force, opening up other jobs, but it’s ridiculous to assume everyone went from food stamps to work. We don’t know how many of the people on food stamps were unemployed and homeless. Now that they got kicked off food stamps, they may be unemployed, homeless and starving. Great outcome.

32. President Trump is the only businessman in history to become President. All of the others were beholden to their donors to the extent that they might not do what is right for Americans, or their party, in order to keep the donor money coming in. So why would we vote for a politician with no business experience? None of the past Democratic Presidents, especially Obama, ever generated economic numbers anywhere close to those of President Trump. He’s no Mr. Nice Guy, but sometimes it takes a Donald Trump to change Washington and drain the swamp.

This person knows neither numbers nor history. Herbert Hoover was a businessman. No one ever generated economic numbers anywhere close to his: 23.6% unemployment, then he adopted tax INCREASES, which sent the rate to 24.9% in FDR’s first year in office. THANK GOD. Just terrific economic management from this brilliant businessman. Definitely need more of that. (Reminds me of the stupidity of a big tax cut when the economy is humming — oh, Trump did that. It is something a businessman would do for short-term benefits. It’s not something you’d see from anyone who knows about government and the need to keep fiscal stimulus in your hip pocket for the inevitable downturn.)

Obama with no business experience often generated better numbers than Trump. Trump’s business experience was — is — running a small, family-owned criminal enterprise. He is trying to run the federal government that way, and it doesn’t work. Turnover at the top is running at an all-time high. The Trump supporter didn’t mention record turnover. We do not have a functioning government. The Pentagon sends Iraq a memo saying we are withdrawing troops, then pulls it back, saying it was a mistake. This is good management?

As for fundraising, the Trump supporter seems to suggest that as a businessman, Trump doesn’t need money from anyone else. But he’s a cheap businessman. He won’t spend any of his own money (at least not without getting it back by violating the emoluments clause). Why do you think he incessantly was on cable news in 2016? So he didn’t have to pay for advertising.

Trump raised $46 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 and had $102.7 million on hand at the end of the year.[xxxvii] Trump and the Republican National Committee together took in $125 million in the third quarter and $105 million in the second. Trump is raising much more than the Democrats. And the Washington Post just ran a piece on how Trump is attracting a bunch of new big donors.[xxxviii]

He’s not doing anything for those donors? Who benefits from the 800 regulations killed? Coal miners with black lung or coal mine operators? Who are we kidding?

You don’t run the government like a business. You do take business concerns into account in developing policy. That’s different. If you want to run government like a business, pay members of Congress and the President on commission, as Jackie Mason used to say. They get commissions for increasing the number of people getting quality, affordable health care, the number of people getting nutritious meals, the number of people drinking cleaner water and breathing cleaner air, and for curing other defects in the free market. In other words, for protecting the public common, which markets have no incentive to do. This is not a business proposition. It manifestly is what someone who understands government — and Trump manifestly doesn’t — should do. It’s what the next president must do.

[i] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/10/us-nonfarm-payrolls-december-2019.html

[ii] https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/highlights/2017/current-employment-statistics-highlights-12-2017.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceshighlights.pdf

[iii] https://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-january-2017-2017-2

[iv] https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/highlights/2016/current-employment-statistics-highlights-11-2016.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/highlights/2016/current-employment-statistics-highlights-12-2016.pdf

[v] https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/highlights/2013/current-employment-statistics-highlights-11-2013.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/highlights/2013/current-employment-statistics-highlights-12-2013.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/highlights/2015/current-employment-statistics-highlights-12-2015.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/highlights/2016/current-employment-statistics-highlights-12-2016.pdf

[vi] https://fortune.com/2019/02/08/growing-wealth-inequality-us-study/

[vii] https://www.bls.gov/ces/#tables