May finally calls a General Election

Theresa May has engaged in her most significant u-turn yet by calling a General Election for June.

May had previously commented that this would risk destabilising the country but it’s not a surprising move. Labour are languishing in the polls. There recent policy announcements were well received but Corbyn’s personal ratings have dipped two points, according to latest figures from YouGov. The longer Corbyn gets to talk policies then the better chance Labour have of a resurgence. May will want to put a stop to that possibility.

It was also likely prompted by fears that the Conservatives would have to face a series of by-elections anyway, after up to 20 MPs were found to have engaged in overspending at the last election. A national election campaign makes far more sense than fighting several local battles. The Liberal Democrats are traditionally strong at campaigning on local issues, and many constituents are worried about losing EU funding. A national campaign however, will predominantly focus on the failures of Labour to stand up for national interests. Regardless of the reality of Corbyn, the opposition (and media) have now pigeonholed Corbyn as a weak leader to the public. To take on Labour nationally, and to make the election about the country’s interests rather than local needs, is the most effective tactic May can use to try to stem Conservative losses.

The Conservatives are not in a particularly strong place. Many in the centre feel alienated due to the rhetoric around the possibility of a hard Brexit. Conservatives are also traditionally the party of low taxation and yet taxes have increased while services have been cut – meaning voters are paying more for less, which is never a popular scenario and even less so among right-leaning voters.

The election is likely an opportunity for May to stem the rot. She can get it out of the way and consolidate her power and then head into the debates over Brexit, knowing she has some security. The consequences of this election could be severe for our democracy; we have no popular opposition, and a Conservative victory will likely be a springboard for the SNP to increase their support for a vote for independence. This is yet another complex twist in the Brexit tale that doesn’t seem to have any end in sight.