It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Kids are back in school, I don’t have to worry about my attempt at a summer body, and most importantly — the NFL is back!
A few leagues have already held their draft, even before the last pre-season game (Marquise Lee was my late-round sleeper, damn). But we here at Stanza wanted to wait until the rosters are looking a little more stable, the rooks got some more snaps in, and anybody out of Last Chance U has had time to go from a relative unknown to a superstar in a just a couple big plays.
So which expert are you listening to?
ESPN, Yahoo, Fox, or your coworker Janice in accounting who’s won the league each of the last 6 years running?
Stanza behind the scenes has been working on some fun new features, and since we power the majority of the NFL team’s calendars — we see a fair amount of data on our end that has led us to make a few changes from what the big names in the broadcast game are saying, but had to agree on some.
Obviously you can’t get all of these guys since the top RBs & WRs will be gone in the first round or two, but hopefully, this helps you rethink who to go for right off the bat, and who you should keep in the back of your mind for a late round steal with high potential.
Here are your Top 5’s
QBs
1. Aaron Rodgers — ok this is almost a no-brainer. A high flying offense with a hungry, healthy Rodgers pulling the strings. Though Brady may be the ‘goat’, the numbers definitely won’t lie to you here this season. Coming off a collar-bone broken season which led to a dismal year for the Greenbay Packers, everyone’s healthy. Davante Adams is looking great to take over the main receiving duties, Cobb is still putting in solid performances, the backfield is a committee. Rodgers will be consistent. He’ll have a ton of TD’s and limited interceptions
Recommended Draft Round: 4–5
2. Cam Newton — a few years removed from a (lackluster) Super Bowl, he’s poised to put up huge numbers this season. Greg Olsen is back and looking to be a top 5 TE target for Superman, the defense is looking decent, and though they’ve sent Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo, MCcaffrey is starting to shine as a versatile asset that allows the offense some creative flexibility. If they stay healthy, Norv Turner’s offense should put up some big numbers.
Recommended Draft Round: 6–7
3. Tom Brady — he’s the goat. I used to be a hater, but no longer. He is guys. Given last Super Bowl….yea. Now, we’ve been asking ourselves the same question for a few years now — he’s 41. How much can he really keep going like this? He probably can. How will his number be? Well, that’s why we’re putting him at #3 despite being the greatest. He’s a winner, but he wins in the purest sense of the term — as a team. Not always by putting up huge numbers individually, but he does that too.
Recommended Draft Round: 7–8
4. Drew Brees — We know we’re making a bit of a stretch here, understandably. But, this is a spread (throw-first) offense that has found it’s main running weapon in Alvin Kamara, plus a healthy Mark Ingram II fills out a well-balanced backfield. Similar to Brady, Brees is now 39 and this could either be a boom or bust kind of season. With a high number of passing attempts, he’ll surely be a great pickup in PPR leagues. Hopefully, he’ll be able to find Kamara for some red-zone scores, as Michael Thomas is great in PPR leagues himself too. But they’ll need someone to emerge as the pass threat in the end zone to ensure this pick pays off.
Recommended Draft Round: 7–9
5. Carson Wentz — The man who took Philly to new heights last season, before an almost quintessential Philadelphia end to the regular season — if not for a heroic playoff effort from Nick Foles. But that’s last year so forget all that ish. He’s back, but will it all be the same? For anyone not named Tom Brady, the following year after an extremely successful campaign leads to a bit of a slump. A solid backfield, a solid defense, solid tight ends…I’m not too sold on the receiving corps — prove me wrong here guys. That mixed with a bit of uncertainty if how he’ll handle coming off an ACL (probably well tbh) is why he’s fallen just a bit here.
Recommended Draft Round 7–9
Late Round Steal
Jimmy Garoppolo — This writer had the honor of witnessing the 49ers take on the Playoff bound Titans last season. The Niner’s were already wayyyy out of the picture, but we’re giving Jimmy G some starting reps, and boy oh boy did he win over the bay area in those few games he played in. He looked polished, professional, calm under pressure, and a total team leader. If you didn’t snag one of the guys above, definitely consider holding off on snagging another QB early.
Recommended Draft Round 9–11
RBs
Le’Veon Bell — Was there any doubt who’d be #1 here? Still puts up monster numbers, has great hands, doesn’t appear to have lost a step, carries the workload, puts the team on his back in away games (Big Ben hasn’t been too good away from Steel City). Will this be the first year we see Bell not end the season #1? Possibly. But we’re banking on consistent, top level play here. If you’re not the 1st or 2nd pick, he’s probably not going to fall to you.
Recommended Draft Round 1 (1st Overall Pick)
Todd Gurley II — The Rams are slated to be one the highest scoring offenses in the NFL. Jared Goff is emerging as a quality QB, but maybe not quite ‘fully cooked’. We believe he’ll get there in a year or two, but the major workload is going to fall back on Gurley’s manly shoulders. When it comes to punching through the red zone, it’s going to be all Gurley. Malcom Butler looks to maybe take a few snaps off the ex Georgia man, but we firmly believe Gurley is going to be a top RB for years to come. If you can get him in a keeper league — do it. If you have the 1st, 2nd or maybeeee he’ll fall to the 3rd pick, you should absolutely snag him.
Recommended Draft Round 1 (2nd Overall Pick)
Kareem Hunt — There is a lot of hype about Hunt going into this season — and we’re buying into it. While he could also be a huge bust, we’re also not completely sold on Pat Mahomes, the 22-year-old from Texas Tech. Hunt has big yard potential anywhere on the field, but will also be relied on for scoring opportunities. The Chiefs changing of the guard at QB will le
d to a run-heavier offense, and if he can stay healthy, he’ll put up some high numbers consistently. Should be interesting to see how he stacks up against the defenses in the Chief’s division.
Recommended Draft Round 1 (3rd or 4th Overall Pick)
Ezekiel Elliott — We went back n’ forth between Hunt and Elliot as to who we wanted to give the higher pick too. Gave the nod to Hunt only based on the fact that Prescott has proven to be able to sling the ball some, even though Elliott will be getting a lot of carries behind a great OL. And that the QB situation in KC still has some questions. Elliott will put up big numbers, character questions seem to be a thing of the past, and if he stays healthy — the budding starlet could become the new Bell by the end of the season.
Recommended Draft Round 1 (3rd or 4th Overall Pick)
David Johnson — Ok, I may still be a little jaded from last year. Johnson had an incredible season 16/17, and then missed almost the entirety of this last season (despite me drafting him 1st overall). This year, again, if he stays healthy, we should expect him to be a feature back with a very high ceiling but, the big drawback here is that Arizona is expected to run. Their QB situation at the moment isn’t the best (Rosen, Glennon, Bradford), so most defenses will be keeping a keen eye on Johnson.
Recommended Draft Round 1 (5th Overall Pick)
Late Round Steal
Lamar Miller — He’ll be leading the rush offense in Houston, a team that can’t possibly have another rough-i njury prone year, right? Alfred Blue is a nice compliment way late in your draft, but Miller has been falling down the draft charts to a flex position. If you find yourself with some solid receivers and tight ends on your roster early on and need an RB2 because you forgot about that. Miller could find himself being a major focal point in a high flying offense, at worst he’s a top Flex option.
Recommended Draft Round 3–5
Special Shout Out to Adrian Peterson here — keep an eye on him in Washington, he’s still got some juice left.
WRs
Antonio Brown — Similar to his RB counterpart, picking Brown in the first round is a no-brainer when it comes to picking a wideout. The only hesitation here is if you want to ensure you have a top-10 running back before dipping into the receivers, but Brown will absolutely be gone after the first round. If he’s not, invite me to your league next year. The favorite target of Big Ben, his production looks to be high again this year — calling it now = most TD & yards by a receiver.
Recommended Draft Round 1 (5th-6th Pick Overall)
Julio Jones — They have a new stadium, but the usual suspects are back. Do they have enough talent to make it back to a super bowl? That will heavily rely on Jones to produce as often as Brown (maybe more?) Sanu will have some numbers, but Jones will be the main target of almost every Ryan dropback. Able to create space, beat double coverage, long ball threat. Matt Ryan wants to prove he’s still the QB he was the season he ‘almost’ went all the way.
Recommended Draft Round 1
Davante Adams — Rodgers is back, Nelson is gone, and Adams is Green Bay’s guy. Cobb will still have some decent numbers but with a hungry & healthy Rodgers pulling the strings, you can count on Adams having consistent numbers week in and week out. The GB backfield is going to be a committee again. A more recent breakout star, he’ll get more targets, more catches, and more TDs than anyone else in the division by at least 5+.
Recommended Draft Round 1–2
DeAndre Hopkins — Did we finally find this man a QB?! Watson is looking like the savior of Houston, if he can stay healthy. Hopkins will lead the way, backed by Fuller who is also looking to have some high potential. But Hopkins is still the guy. We picked Adams slightly over him this year based purely on QB expected attempts, and…Houston has been semi…I’m going to say, inefficient at times. But! This is also my sleeper team to go deep in the playoffs (mostly because of a scary DL) so if they can rally together, Hopkins could be the focal point.
Recommended Draft Round 1–2
Keenan Allen — Ok, listen to me on this. He was on my squad before going down with an ACL (lotta ACL recoveries on this list) but, he put in a superb performance all of last season in. The Chargers are…in a weird place to say the least, and I’m not just talking about their stadium situation, well kinda. Rivers is getting up there, and like Matt Ryan, only has a few years to really show that he’s got some stuff left in the tank. Allen is the only keeping the Chargers from fading into Los Angeles obscurity. With a franchise on his back, he’ll gladly carry the load. Just keep those knees healthy Keenan — p.s. He’s only 26 too.
Recommended Draft Round 2
Late Round Steal
Marquise Goodwin — Circling back to our sleeper pick for QB, Goodwin is clearly the #1 receiver on the 49ers roster. With Jimmy G potentially being THE breakout QB of the year, and Goodwin will be the star of a rebuilding team. Though we’re thinking SF is looking at an 8–8 kind of season, but consistent numbers are what we expect out of Goodwin. Even if he doesn’t get in the end zone much, he’ll still produce and has a high ceiling.
Recommended Draft Round 5–7
TEs
Rob Gronkowski — Fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you, fool me a third time….I’m still drafting him. No not just because I absolutely love this guy and all of his bro-ish mannerisms. But he’s basically a massive receive with no fear regardless of how many injuries he receives. Brady’s favorite target, if he stays healthy, he’ll be scoring on a regular basis — to the point where it’s almost a let down when he doesn’t get a TD or massive yardage. How do you even guard this guy?! 6’6” with decent speed/moves, has hands, and can break some tackles. No CB can even reach the areas he’s able to bring balls down from. He has been a bit of a glass cannon though so….live by the sword, die by the sword.
Recommended Draft Round 1–2
(yes even in Round 1 if you’re a late pick — just consider it)
Zach Ertz — You may be noticing a pattern here. We’re going with Ertz over Kelce, not because Kelce has lost a step or shown anything but being extremely consistent. But, we’ll remind you of the QB situation in KC. Ertz has battled some injuries in his past, but he put a solid showing in the playoffs, and is still on the young side. The consistency and development he’s now had with Carson Wentz can only be better this year. If Wentz is slinging it like he was last year, Jeffery and Agholor better fight for their target numbers, because Ertz is a go-to for red zone attempts.
Recommended Draft Round 3–4
Jimmy Graham — The former golden boy in New Orleans, who had a bit of a lackluster time in Seattle, has hopefully found another high passing attempt offense. The Packers no longer have their talisman, Jordy Nelson, and while we’re predicting Davante Adams to be the main target, we think Cobb is going see fewer or just as many targets than Graham — he’s got the hands, the offense, the QB. Take the risk here guys. Jimmy has been looking for a way to prove his worth. If he doesn’t finish in the top 3 of all TE receiving yards, then we’ll officially move onto the next generation and forget these next couple guys.
Recommended Draft Round 4–5
Travis Kelce — He’s everyone #2. He’s our #4, why? BECAUSE THEY HAVE A BRAND NEW QB. That being said, a TE is a new QB’s best friend. They’re reliable, can gain some much-needed yards in when s*** is on the line. He’s been everyone’s go-to tight end after the Gronk gets drafted, and I still think he’ll produce a great amount. But, and it’s a big but, KC still has a big question mark on their offensive production potential this season, specifically in the air. Expect him to be in the top 5, but look for some ‘slightly’ higher output from others.
Recommended Draft Round 4–5
Greg Olsen — So, noticing the trend of players bouncing back here? The Panthers look to reclaim their winning ways, McCaffrey will draw a lot of attention away from the big fella. And for those who may have forgotten, Olsen was a favorite passing target of Superman — and the rest of the receiving corps has had a makeover. So expect Olsen to get equal targets amongst Funchess (I keep wanting to say Ron Funches) and McCaffrey.
Recommended Draft Round 5
Late Round Steal
Jordan Reed — Stop. Getting. Injured. Please. Jordan. This guy could put up monster numbers if he can get through a 16 game season. Alex Smit has a resume full of slinging passes to Kelce in KC, and look for Reed to become his go-to scoring target early. Don’t expect much out of Washington as a whole, and if their offense is sputtering — Reed will benefit from being the safe bet to get passes in and around the end zone. If you can’t snag one of the 5 guys above (or Burton) think about going for a QB or loading up on RB/WR options and holding off to snag Reed late…it’s a bit of a gamble though. That’s fantasy though.
Recommended Draft Round 10–11
D/St
Jacksonville Jaguars — The defense carried the team last season, and if they want any chance of going deep into the playoffs, they’ll need that to happen again. Bortles has come a long way and been fairly effective on the offense-defense wins championships, but sometimes you need the offense to win games. And they did. But, a few things have changed. They no longer have the Allen’s (Hurns and Robinson), and now it looks like Marqise Lee will be out for the season before it even began — he was slated to be the new #1. So the Jags will have to play stellar on defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a few games the defense outscored the offense.
Recommended Draft Round 8–10
Minnesota Vikings — The purple people eaters are looking to return to their glory days, and we may be in them. Bringing in Cousins could be huge for the offense, Keenum did a lot for them last season, can’t knock him for what he did on the offensive side. But the defense again was the real standout. Similar to the Jags, they’re stacked. Putting up points against these Grimace like players (get it, because he’s purple too), is going to come few and far between. Though they didn’t have as many takeaways as a large number of the defenses last year, they made up for it by being completely suffocating.
Recommended Draft Round 10–12
Los Angeles Rams — No team can try to win over the Los Angeles market by getting blown out. Now that they just signed their main man Mcdonald to a record deal, and brought in the polarizing Suh as the other DT — they’ll be disrupting opposing QBs everywhere. The offense is a bit run-n-gun now, so they’ll probably be on the field a fair amount. They may give up some points here or there, but look for them to be a big reason the Rams win most of their games — they’ll be consistently above average.
Recommended Draft Round 11–12
Houston Texans — And back to the Texans. I gotta say, I do love this defense. They’ve got the talent, the big names, the huge hitting potential (which may be an issue this year actually). But I could sum up this review in two names: Watt & Clowney. They may not have many years together both in top form, so as a fan of the sport in general. I’m pulling for these two guys to get back to their true-top-tier form.
Recommended Draft Round 11–12
Philadelphia Eagles — They did an amazing job throughout the postseason, and well, really all of last season. They had the 4th best takeaway differential and stepped up their game, even more, to help Foles become a legend in Philly. We think they’ll do great things this year, but hard for us to put them any higher than this coming off a Super Bowl victory. We’re hoping they don’t get too complacent, but everyone wants to try a little harder to score on a reigning championship defense.
Recommended Draft Round 11–12
No Late Round Steal….these should all be late rounds.
Ks
We’ll keep these brief
Greg Zuerlein — The Rams are expected to put up the most points overall this upcoming season. So what does that mean for ol’ Greg? Lots of XP and FG attempts. The more the team scores, the more the kicker scores, duh.
Stephen Gostkowski — Brady is an efficiency machine. If they do get held on a 3rd down, they’ll already be within kicking distance.
Will Lutz — Similar to the Rams, the Saints tend to win games by 45–38 types of scoring efforts, only to follow it up with a 3–10 loss. So if they get held to low scoring, they’ll still put up a few kicks.
Justin Tucker — The man has never, I repeat, never missed an extra point in his career. And with a 91% field goal accuracy to boot. He’s a safe bet.
Matt Bryant — He’s been nearly as good as Tucker above, and the Falcons have been on the higher side of scoring offenses. You really can’t go wrong with the 43-year-old
Let us know how your draft goes. Who you picked, and how you think you’ll end up blowing it again this year.
We know we picked a few less favorable choices. But, in our defense, when have the top experts gotten fantasy 100% correct, maybe we’re the new lucky Powerball pickers.
The one thing you can count on 100%, is if we get these right. You’ll alllllllll be hearing about it until next season.
Good luck to everyone!
Don’t come in last.
