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He’s on fire! How the hot hand helped Golden State become NBA champions
Long thought to be a fallacy, new analysis shows the ‘hot hand’ is real, and Klay Thompson has it.
“Success isn’t a result of spontaneous combustion. You must set yourself on fire.” -Arnold Glascow
The hot hand is a myth, like betting ‘red’ after a string of ‘black’ results on a roulette wheel, or betting on a coin flip turning up ‘heads’ after a bunch of ‘tails’ in a row. If you ask, “What are the odds that Steph Curry, LeBron James, or Kevin Durant make their next shot,” you know that if they’re a 50% shooter, the odds are probably 50/50. But what if the idea of going on a streak had some merit? What if you make three or four baskets in a row, previously? Could the odds of your success on the next shot possibly be different? According to NBA statistics — and mathematics — the answer is actually yes.
Let’s say you’re studying the game, looking to know whether there’s a chance of a streak in your favorite player’s future. They come out of the locker room for halftime, and you missed the first four minutes of the quarter. You return to the…