You can call me “Debbie Downer” or “Negative Nancy” (though I prefer “Realistic Rick” or “Logical Larry” or “Accurate Alex”), but…
If ~99% of startups will fail, but ~100% of entrepreneurs believe they’ll succeed, then YOUR Assumptions, Beliefs, Confidence about YOUR startup, simply can’t be viewed as objective or valid!
So, the honest/harsh (objective!) reality is that you (and your startup) are NOT A SMART BET (for an investor, or even for yourself to make the All-In / Full-Time leap!) — UNLESS or UNTIL you have AT LEAST one of…
- “Been There / Done That” — Prior Startup SUCCESS (not just experience)
- Joining a TOP Incubator/Accelerator program with a proven track-record of success (i.e. Y-Combinator)
- [NOTE: I’m open to adding more if anyone has additional thoughts — Jeff@StartupWhatever.com]
P.S. In case you were wondering, no, I don’t consider “CUSTOMER DISCOVERY” to be a good enough indicator — partly because I think most people kinda suck at it. Spoiler Alert: There’s often a HUGE difference between someone who *SAYS* “I like it!” or “Dude, that’s awesome!” or “Wow! That’s a really cool [startup, app, product, service, whatever] idea” or even “Yeah, I would totally use that!” — and someone who will *ACTUALLY* purchase your product, pay for your service, download/use your app, etc.
THE BAD NEWS:
Unless/Until you have one or more of those OBJECTIVE INDICATORS — then your assumptions, your hypotheses, your confidence, etc. are objectively no better than everyone else’s; so, unfortunately, neither is your likelihood of success. #99percentFAIL #100percentBelieveTheyWillSucceed #BadMath
THE GOOD NEWS:
We’re living in a time when countless entrepreneur-friendly services (like WordPress, Amazon Web Services, Shopify, MailChimp, Google Analytics, Facebook Ad-Targeting, and MANY others) make it EASIER, CHEAPER, and FASTER than ever before to build, launch, and A-B test a Startup MVP (minimally viable product).
So … it is not only possible, but we actually RECOMMEND getting started in a PART-time capacity to build your MVP and test your assumptions. THEN, if/when you’ve achieved one of the aforementioned “OBJECTIVE Indicators”, you will be able to make the “Go All-In?” decision with much more OBJECTIVE information at your disposal (and investors will have a much better way of objectively evaluating you!) in regard to whether or not you have a better than average chance of success!
PART-TIME PURSUIT OF *PROOF!
…*Proof of Concept?
…*Proof of Assumptions?
…*Proof of MVP Viability?
…*Proof of Reliable Objective Indicators — of above-average (~1%) success likelihood
INTRODUCING:
PRIMARY PRINCIPLES & PHILOSOPHIES:
(For “STARTER STARTUPS” and Our “PART-TIME PURSUIT Of PROOF” Programs & Improvement Initiatives)
- Entrepreneurial Self-Awareness
- Complementary Co-Founders
- Objectivity Over Optimism
- Bootstrapped / Self-Funded / Low Overhead
(at least initially, “prior to proof”) - Risk-Mitigation (not risk glorification & celebration)
- “Ready, Aim, Fire!” vs. “Ready, Fire, Aim”
- Entrepreneurial Employees
- Shared Resources / Economies of Scale
- Blurring the lines between Products, Content, Marketing
- Anticipate Pivots BEFORE you’re forced to
- A-B Testing isn’t just for marketing! A-B Test EVERYTHING — even Potential Pivots (on your core product!)
- Short-Term Goals: PROVE Key Assumptions and/or Achieve RELIABLE OBJECTIVE INDICATORS
- Crawl → then Walk → then Run
- PART-Time Pursuit of Proof (…of Concept, of Assumptions, of MVP Viability, of Reliable Objective Indicators…)
(www.theSWANstartup.com — Sacrificing Weekends And Nights)
P.S. Quick Note to EXPERIENCED ENTREPRENEURS on “Startup ASSumptions“
If you’ve ever been in the room with founders — particularly first-time founders — when they’ve been discussing the “assumptions” necessary to create their Financial Projections, have you ever observed something like this:
>> Co-Founder A: “Let’s say our sales growth rate will be 10% in Year 1, 20% in Year 2, and 30% in Year 3…”
>> Co-Founder B: “Ok… [*enters numbers in Excel*]… Dude, that‘s not gonna get us anywhere close to the $2.5 Million Valuation we’re looking for.”
>> Co-Founder A: “Shit. Ok, well… what if we double the price of this and this, cut this expense in half, change those two from monthly expenses to annual, and let’s just get rid of these 3 rows entirely — and let’s plug in a sales growth rate of… how about… 50% in Year 1? 100% in Year 2? and 200% in Year 3?”
>> Co-Founder B: “Ok, let’s see… [*enters numbers in Excel*]… BOOM! Awesome! Dude, these numbers look GREAT now!”
IamNOTaCEO.com (Entrepreneurial Epiphanies)
ThoughtsOnStartups.com (Thoughts & Theories)
ReThinkingStartups.com (Improvement Initiatives)
ViralWhatever.com (“We make Sh*t Go Viral” Secret Sauce)
Part-Time “Pursuit of Proof” Premises & Programs:
StarterStartups.com / MultipleBasketStartups.com / theSWANstartup.com
Practicing What We Preach:
18Startups.com / PitchingForPartners.com
