YOUR Assumptions, Beliefs, & Confidence (#ABC), about YOUR startup, are NOT OBJECTIVE (or reliable!)

(ReThinkingStartups.com)

PRIMARY PREMISES:

***Please take 2 seconds and let those 2 stats really sink in…*** *because they are at the core of A LOT of what I write about and a lot of our* ***ReThinkingStartups.com Improvement Initiatives*** *— all of which will be* ***PITCHING FOR PARTNERS!*** *(Contact* ***info@StartupWhatever.com*** *to discuss)*

Look, you can call me “Debbie Downer” or “Negative Nancy” (though I prefer “Realistic Rick”, “Logical Larry”, or “Accurate Alex”), but… if 99% of Startups fail, despite 100% of Entrepreneurs believing they’ll succeed, that logically has to mean that:

YOUR assumptions, YOUR beliefs, YOUR confidence — about YOUR startup — can simply NOT be considered OBJECTIVE (or reliable)… because EVERY ENTREPRENEUR feels that strongly about THEIR startup!).

So, the honest/harsh (objective!) reality is that you (and your startup) are NOT A SMART BET (for an investor, or even for yourself to make the All-In / Full-Time leap) — UNLESS or UNTIL you have AT LEAST one of…

**Honorable Mentions:**
- *“Been There / Done That”* — **Prior Startup SUCCESS** *(not just experience)*
- Joining a **TOP Incubator/Accelerator program** with a proven track-record of success (i.e. Y-Combinator)
- [NOTE: I’m open to adding more if anyone has additional thoughts — Jeff@StartupWhatever.com]

P.S. In case you were wondering, no, I don’t consider “CUSTOMER DISCOVERY” to be a good indicator — partly because I think most people kinda suck at it. Spoiler Alert: There’s often a HUGE difference between someone who *SAYS* “I like it!” or “Dude, that’s awesome!” or “Wow! That’s a really cool [startup, app, product, service, whatever] idea” or even “Yeah, I would totally use that!” — and someone who will *ACTUALLY* purchase your product, pay for your service, download/use your app, etc.

THE BAD NEWS:

Unless/Until you have one or more of those OBJECTIVE INDICATORS — then your assumptions, your hypotheses, your confidence, etc. are objectively no better than everyone else’s; so, unfortunately, neither is your likelihood of success. #99percentFAIL #100percentBelieveTheyWillSucceed #BadMath

THE GOOD NEWS:

We’re living in a time when countless entrepreneur-friendly services (like WordPress, Amazon Web Services, Shopify, MailChimp, Google Analytics, Facebook Ad-Targeting, and MANY others) make it EASIER, CHEAPER, and FASTER than ever before to build, launch, and A-B test a Startup MVP (minimally viable product).

So … it is not only possible, but we actually RECOMMEND getting started in a PART-time capacity to build your MVP and test your assumptions. THEN, if/when you’ve achieved one of the aforementioned “OBJECTIVE Indicators”, you will be able to make the “Go All-In?” decision with much more OBJECTIVE information at your disposal (and investors will have a much better way of objectively evaluating you!) in regard to whether or not you have a better than average chance of success!

PART-TIME PURSUIT OF *PROOF!

…*Proof of Concept?
…*Proof of Assumptions?
…*Proof of MVP Viability?
…*Proof of Reliable Objective Indicators — of above-average (~1%) success likelihood

INTRODUCING:

PRIMARY PRINCIPLES & PHILOSOPHIES:

(For “STARTER STARTUPS” and Our “PART-TIME PURSUIT Of PROOF” Programs & Improvement Initiatives)

Entrepreneurial Self-Awareness
Complementary Co-Founders
Objectivity Over Optimism
Bootstrapped / Self-Funded / Low Overhead
(at least initially, “prior to proof”)
Risk-Mitigation (not risk glorification & celebration)
“Ready, Aim, Fire!” vs. “Ready, Fire, Aim”
Entrepreneurial Employees
Shared Resources / Economies of Scale
Blurring the lines between Products, Content, Marketing
Anticipate Pivots BEFORE you’re forced to
A-B Testing isn’t just for marketing! A-B Test EVERYTHING — even Potential Pivots (on your core product!)
Short-Term Goals: PROVE Key Assumptions and/or Achieve RELIABLE OBJECTIVE INDICATORS
Crawl → then Walk → then Run
PART-Time Pursuit of Proof (…of Concept, of Assumptions, of MVP Viability, of Reliable Objective Indicators…)

We believe the idea of **“you must be all-in / full-time”** (on one startup) is not only **OVER-RATED** and unnecessary (*at least initially!), but it is actually a bit **OUT-DATED —** from a time (just a few years ago!) **before AWS and WordPress and Shopify and UpWork and Facebook Ad-Targeting and Google Analytics and…** the countless other startup resources that allow you to launch a startup MVP (test assumptions, validate hypotheses, etc.) so much **EASIER, FASTER and CHEAPER** than ever before!
(**www.theSWANstartup.com — S**acrificing Weekends And Nights)

Smart investors don’t just invest in one company; they diversify their portfolio to mitigate risk and increase chances of big wins. We believe that startups / entrepreneurs should consider that concept too — at least initially, “prior to proof” — with their **“Investment HOURS”** rather than “investment DOLLARS”… (***MultipleBasketStartups.com***)

Whether your “full-time” job is in Corporate America, already with a startup, or as a full-time student, we’d like to introduce you to the idea of putting “Multiple Eggs in Multiple Baskets” and the many potential benefits of PART-Time ***“STARTER STARTUPS!”***

But contact us if you’re at all intrigued by anything you’ve read and/or if you’d like to work with us! **info@StartupWhatever.com**

P.S. Quick Note to EXPERIENCED ENTREPRENEURS on “Startup ASSumptions“

If you’ve ever been in the room with founders — particularly first-time founders — when they’ve been discussing the “assumptions” necessary to create their Financial Projections, have you ever observed something like this:

>> Co-Founder A: “Let’s say our sales growth rate will be 10% in Year 1, 20% in Year 2, and 30% in Year 3…”
>> Co-Founder B: “Ok… [*enters numbers in Excel*]… Dude, that‘s not gonna get us anywhere close to the $2.5 Million Valuation we’re looking for.”
>> Co-Founder A: “Shit. Ok, well… what if we double the price of this and this, cut this expense in half, change those two from monthly expenses to annual, and let’s just get rid of these 3 rows entirely — and let’s plug in a sales growth rate of… how about… 50% in Year 1? 100% in Year 2? and 200% in Year 3?”
>> Co-Founder B: “Ok, let’s see… [*enters numbers in Excel*]… BOOM! Awesome! Dude, these numbers look GREAT now!”

3 Years of Thinking/Writing/Planning:
**IamNOTaCEO.com** *(Entrepreneurial Epiphanies)*
**ThoughtsOnStartups.com** *(Thoughts & Theories)*
**ReThinkingStartups.com** *(Improvement Initiatives)*
**ViralWhatever.com** (“We make Sh*t Go Viral” Secret Sauce)
Part-Time “Pursuit of Proof” Premises & Programs:
**StarterStartups.com** / **MultipleBasketStartups.com** / **theSWANstartup.com**
Practicing What We Preach:
**18Startups.com** / **PitchingForPartners.com**