It’s the Pandemic, Stupid
The latest Newspoll puts Labor well in front of the Coalition. What’s behind this surge?
The next federal election must happen by May 21st. Technically, it could be called at any moment, however, it seems most likely to occur on May 14th. Any date in March or April would disrupt either parliamentary sitting schedules, the release of the 2022 budget, or school holidays — all things which tend to be avoided. And as for any time before March, as Damon Muller of the Australian Parliament House writes, “governments appear to be reluctant to force people to consider politics during their summer holidays.”
With that in mind, dear reader, I apologise. I am aware it is summer holidays. Despite this, however, and despite the fact that the next election is still yet to be called, I ask you to come with me and consider politics, because there’s already election news worth talking about.
In the history of Newspoll, no party has ever won from this far behind, this close to an election.
The first Newspoll of the year is out, and it puts Labor ahead of the Coalition with a split of 56–44%.
A Historic Challenge
I’ll give the big story up front: in the history of Newspoll, no party has ever won from this far behind, this close to an election.
As the psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham notes, others have come back from further behind (such as John Howard’s Coalition, who in March 2001 recorded the equivalent of a 57–43% Newspoll, before coming back to win the election in November), but none have done it in as sharp a turn-around.
Morrison is among those to have come closest, coming back from a 55-45% Newspoll result in January 2019 to win the election that May. But 56-44% is worse. This is the worst result for the Coalition since the 2018 leadership spill, when Scott Morrison took the top job from Malcolm Turnbull. If these numbers hold true for the election, this would be the largest two-party-preferred win since Harold Holt’s landmark 1966 victory, with as many as 25 seats flipping to Labor.
…with a lead this big, it is at this stage Labor’s election to lose.
But we mustn’t get too far ahead of ourselves — an election landslide of such proportions is highly unlikely. These are just polling numbers, after all. Polls, especially this far out from an election, are notoriously unreliable tools for predicting actual election outcomes. Newspoll in particular has a questionable recent record when it comes to accurately polling support for the ALP in the lead-up to elections, although they have taken steps to improve their polling processes.
It should also be pointed out that the Coalition will likely gain ground during the election campaign, and a come-from-behind Coalition win is in no way out of the picture. Morrison, to my eye, is a far more skilled political campaigner than Albanese, and although this Newspoll puts Labor ahead of the Coalition on voting intentions, Morrison still leads 43–41% as ‘better Prime Minister’, albeit by his smallest margin ever. With all this in mind, it’s far too early to make any confident electoral predictions.
Nonetheless, Labor’s increasingly wide lead in opinion polls is historic, and it does provide us with an interesting insight into the present state of the electorate. So what’s driving this trend?
Omicron: The Summer Surge
The most obvious factor behind Labor’s popularity surge is the equally remarkable, but far more sinister, surge in COVID-19 cases currently occurring across Australia.
To paraphrase a classic: ‘It’s the pandemic, stupid.’
Before this most recent poll, the last Newspoll was released on December 5th. The two months since then have been… eventful, to say the least:
This January, Australia went from 425,000 cumulative COVID-19 cases to over 2.6 million. That’s a more-than-sixfold increase, in just one month.
Such an explosion in cases always seemed likely, following the nationwide loosening of restrictions over the Christmas period alongside the arrival of the more infectious Omicron strain. However, the Morrison Government seemed unprepared. When up-to-date case information was needed most, the country instead experienced widespread shortages of RATs and excessively long queues for PCR testing. Earlier this week, Morrison admitted that his government hadn’t “got everything right” in its handling of the pandemic over the summer, but stopped short of apologising, stating that Omicron had “changed all the rules” and defied expectations.
Add to this already toxic mix supply-chain issues, food shortages, and the debate over whether RATs, like PCR tests, should be free, and it’s easy to see why the last two months of the pandemic haven’t exactly been a boon for the Coalition. This is reflected in more polling data: for the first time, this month’s Newspoll has Labor (33%) marginally ahead of the Coalition (32%) on their perceived ability to lead the country out of the pandemic.
Labor’s 56–44% lead won’t remain for long, but the talking points that have come out of this summer — and the emotions attached to them — will.
Importantly, pandemic management stands out as the most important issue for voters this Newspoll, with 38% of respondents listing ‘coming out of the pandemic’ as their top priority — this is head and shoulders above the 26% who chose ‘creating jobs and growing the economy’, the next-most-popular issue. Clearly, then, pandemic management is the driving factor behind the Coalition’s poor results, and Labor’s comparative surge.
To paraphrase a classic: it’s the pandemic, stupid. The pandemic and its management is the political issue at the moment. Tragically, with Australia’s total COVID-19 death toll now nearing 4000, and rising quickly, it looks set to remain so for the foreseeable future.
This puts us in an interesting position. The recent omicron wave seems to have peaked, as shown on the graph above. With boosted vaccination rates, and high levels of infection-acquired immunity, it has been plausibly argued that sometime after March, we should expect several weeks to months of low case numbers. As the immediate effects of the pandemic wane, will we see Labor’s support wane with them? Or has the summer surge created lasting impressions around competence, which will impact the election in May?
Personally, I can see either scenario playing out, but for what it’s worth, my money is on the latter. Labor’s 56–44% lead won’t remain for long, and a come-from-behind Coalition victory is still very much on the table. But in my opinion, the talking points that have come out of this summer — and the emotions attached to them — will linger.
Conjecture aside, however, two things are for sure. The first is that, one way or another, this will be the COVID-19 election. The second is that, with a lead this big, it is at this stage Labor’s election to lose.
On a Speculative Note…
Here ends the serious analysis, really. The behemoth that is COVID-19 has dominated the Australian political landscape for the past few years, and, as ever, it’s difficult to see much else in the gloom of its shadow.
But that won’t stop me speculating! Here’s one completely unrelated piece of conjecture as to another factor that may have impacted these poll results.
The survey period for this Newspoll was January 25–28th. This coincided with the Australian of the Year Awards, at which 2021 recipient Grace Tame made headlines for not smiling during a photo-shoot with Scott Morrison. (Yes, that feels as ridiculous to write as it does to read). However you feel about this particular social encounter, it brought Grace Tame, and the feminist issues she has championed, back to the minds of many.
In March 2021, The Guardian’s Essential Poll highlighted Morrison’s problems on these issues, finding that his approval rating among women had fallen by more than 16 points during a period where news of Brittany Higgins’ alleged rape anchored the public discussion to women’s issues. Crazy as it might sound, maybe Grace Tame not smiling contributed to the swing away from the Coalition in this month’s Newspoll?
With an eye to the election, this all may have broader consequences. As David Speers writes, most marginal seats have relatively high proportions of swing-voting women. And, as Michelle Grattan notes, there are a number of high-profile female independents running in precisely these seats, many running on a platform which prioritises, among other things, women’s issues. If Morrison’s ‘women problem’ persists, don’t be surprised to see it play a cameo role at the next election.
My thanks to Lachlan Moore, for his stimulating conversations on these topics, and to Genevieve Campbell for her editing.
Newspoll is published exclusively by The Australian, (although it is administered externally of Newscorp) and as such, results are behind a pay-wall. For a free-to-access summary of results, see Michelle Grattan’s piece in The Conversation.
