How 2 Stumbled on 22 in 2022
A brief outline of ridiculous failures of the “second most powerful army in the world” and how rankings can be misleading, as proven by the Russia-Ukraine war.
According to the Global Fire Power annual review dated 01/12/2022, Russia had the second most powerful army in the world, while Ukraine was ranked 22 out of 142 countries. But as it often happens with academic, economic, and a myriad of other rankings, while providing a quick snapshot and convenient aggregations for comparison, any ranking is still an oversimplification of reality. And if it doesn`t heart so much to use GDP per capita as an economic development indicator, building your military campaign based on an army ranking may be a “Russian roulette”.
USSR was famous for its “gigantomania”, and Russia seems to inherit this disease as well. It has amassed a lot of tanks, fighter jets, and rockets, and some of this stuff is indeed quite sophisticated, but we are not in the age of total AI yet … meaning that humans are still needed to operate these killing machines. Thus, the competence of each soldier is what matters, but it seems to be omitted by military rankings. I am not a military expert, so let me cite someone who knows this domain better — former Supreme NATO Commander retired Gen. Wesley Clark:
“The Russian military, Clark said, “is really strong at the top, with lots of good equipment, but at the bottom, they don’t respect their individual soldiers. They don’t train them well.”[Washington Examiner]
Therefore, more than one month after the invasion, as of the date of this publication, Russia did not achieve any significant victory in Ukraine, despite its advantages in firepower and heavy losses. During just 40 days of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia lost more soldiers than USSR during almost 10 years of the Afgan war. The number of Russian aircraft, helicopters, tanks, and armored vehicles that were destroyed by Ukrainian soldiers and territorial defense units is also beyond any comparison. E.g., USSR lost 147 tanks and 118 aircraft in Afghanistan, while Russian losses already amount to 676 tanks and 150 aircraft, and those numbers are not final.
It is worth mentioning that this military equipment is quite expensive, namely, an export price of SU-35, claimed to be one of the most advanced fighter aircraft in the Russian Air Force, is approx. USD 100 million. The one in the picture below was grounded in Ukraine in early April 2022, and its captured pilot Sergii Ermalov btw had already accomplished 15 combat missions in Ukraine and 40 in Syria [source: news.liga.net].
So, why Russia has failed to achieve any considerable military goals in Ukraine so far? The first reason is the fierce resistance of Ukrainians which appeared to be a surprise for Russians. With regard to other reasons, let me elaborate on the above-mentioned comments of Gen. Clark.
1. Topographical disorientation
Despite all the technology, an old-school topographical orientation still remains an important skill that many Russian soldiers failed to demonstrate. There are plenty of anecdotes about Russian convoys wandering around Ukrainian cities and villages without knowing their exact location and asking locals for directions. To make things worse, the Ukrainian authority called local communities to remove road signs, and some signs were replaced with absolutely confusing ones.
Another source of confusion for the Russian troops in Ukraine appeared to be the decommunization process that started in Ukraine in 2015, after the Revolution of Dignity and the Russian unlawful annexation of Crimea. Therefore, Russians were looking for towns and villages using outdated names. E.g., in Oleshky, a town in Kherson Region, they asked for directions to Tsurupinsk, although Tsurupinsk was renamed to Oleshky in 2016.
Decommunization is the process of dismantling the legacies of communist state establishments, culture, and psychology in the post-communist countries. [Wikipedia]
2. History matters
“Serpents` Vallums” (in Ukrainian: Змієві вали) are the remains of ancient fortifications near Kyiv that were built between the 2nd century BC and 7th century AD. In 2022, these walls served their purpose again forcing Russian tanks and armored vehicles to look for ways around, slowing them down. Thus, Russians appeared to be not prepared to face this 2000-year-old challenge. It is also a good example of future-proof engineering.
3. Auto goal
Four Russian tanks arrived at a small Ukrainian village. They seemed to have problems with fuel. Thus, the Russians refueled two tanks and moved on, leaving the remaining two behind, with empty fuel tanks and without crews. Presumably, they went looking for more fuel. Meanwhile, villagers put Ukrainian flags on the two tanks that were idling. When the first two tanks returned with more fule and saw tanks with Ukrainian flags, they attacked them immediately, thus destroying their equipment.
But this is not the end of this anecdote. One of the remaining tanks fell off the bridge not far from this village, and its entire crew drowned inside. The destiny of the remaining tank, i.e. the last one out of this quartet, is also inglourious, reportedly.
4. Miscellaneous
I guess you got the idea, so let me provide some links to videos without detailed comments.
Russian soldier fell off the tank …
“No man left behind” again … two Russian soldiers playing catch-up with the rest of their squad
