Man Vs. Probability: Why We Often Get It Wrong?
How psychological factors influence our perception of likelihoods!
I recently came across a highly fascinating mathematics experiment out there in the wilderness that is the internet.
The whole situation started with the following probability-based poll:
A bag contains 10 balls.
7 balls are red.
3 balls are green.
You draw one ball out without looking. What is the colour of the ball you just drew out?
On the surface, this question appears charmless. If we define ‘R’ as the event that the ball you drew out is red, then P(R), the probability of this event occurring, would be 0.7 or 70% (since there are 7 red balls).
Consequently, the probability of the event that the ball you drew out is green, P(G), would be 0.3 or 30% (since there are 3 green balls). So far, so good. There is arguably nothing special about this exercise. But that is only until you look at the results of the poll.
A total of 3645 people voted on this poll, out of which 75.3% chose red and 24.7% chose green. A random internet stranger was fascinated that the poll results resembled the actual probability ratio.
