Turkish elections: a nation divided
As anxiety amounts ahead of the country’s presidential elections, can Erdogan’s growing opposition mount a serious challenge to his regime?
Ahead of Turkey’s elections on Sunday, our poll finds that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is considered most likely to win, despite growing opposition, particularly from Muharrem Ince of the Republican People’s Party.
In a poll of our Turkish bees, we found that 45% believe Erdogan will be re-elected as Turkey’s leader, while 39% believe Ince will seize what is considered an unlikely victory.
Polarised electorate
Profiling the politicians’ supporters reveals striking findings; this election is all about perceptions of the economy and how people feel.
Of those who would vote Erdogan, 3 in 4 believe Turkey is doing better now than it was five years ago. In contrast, 4 in 5 of Ince supporters say the country is worse off.
“Our welfare and quality of life are increasing with each passing day,” said a 46-year-old female Erdogan supporter.
“Our purchasing power has increased, the country is no longer a puppet to America, no more IMF debt, it is developing producing its own products,” said a 28-year-old male Erdogan supporter. “Nationalisation is happening, we are not afraid of fighting and Turkey can defend itself.”
For a 28-year-old female Ince supporter, Turkey’s current situation is a lot more bleak: “The economy is a mess. Our people do not get along, the streets are dangerous, and abuse of women is increasing. We do not walk safely in the streets as women and children.”
Empire strikes back
But what of the country’s future? If Erdogan were to win on 24 June, his victory, combined with his new executive-style powers, would make him Turkey’s most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern state in 1923.
With such unprecedented power, and the relative instability in Turkey’s region, some have called for Erdogan to establish a new Ottoman Empire as a way to bring order. When we asked our bees about a neo-Ottoman state, the results were intriguing.
45% or almost 1 in 2 Erdogan supporters would back the establishment of a revived empire under the leader. By contrast, just 4% of Ince supporters were in favour of such an idea.
Cult of personality
With almost half of his supporters in favour of him establishing a new empire, how does a man like Erdogan figure in the mind of his people?
Unsurprisingly, Erdogan supporters still view him as the man to guide the country. The most common words used to describe him were “leader”, “clever”, “honest”, “excellent”, and “determined”.
In contrast, “dictator” was the most common word used by Ince supporters to describe Erdogan, while they described their chosen candidate as an “innovator” and “contemporary”.
Splits were also observed with regard to proposed changes to Erdogan’s presidential powers, which became permanent after a referendum in April 2017.
56% of Erdogan’s supporters fully support the changes to his presidential powers, known as “olaganustu hal” and loosely translates as “state of emergency.” 32% say they are neutral, 5% oppose them and 7% say they were unaware of them.
Of Ince supporters, 3 in 4 oppose the changes and 4 in 5 say they don’t believe the country is headed in the right direction under Erdogan.
Economy is unanimous concern
All parties agree that Turkey’s economy is the country’s most pressing issue. Overall, 87% cited it as one of the major issues that will affect the election’s outcome. Even for Erdogan supporters, this was their top issue — 77%, while for Ince supporters it was 9 in 10.
Another area where there is near unanimity is on voting itself — 93% of Turks say they will be heading to the ballot boxes in what is the country’s most important election in its modern history.
But many opposition supporters will feel that their vote will be in vain. 70% of Ince supporters say they don’t have faith in Turkey’s electoral system, whereas an almost identical percentage of Erdogan supporters (69%) say they believe in the country’s electoral process.
This goes some way to explaining why, despite a clear and growing opposition to Erdogan’s leadership, people are less certain of an opposition victory.
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A quick word on our methodology: The figures in the article are taken from Streetbees community of members in Turkey, carried out in June 2018. All of the data was collected by mobile and web surveys, and is accurate to within 3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
