5 DraftKings Plays I Love for this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open
10K+ Range
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600)
I have no major issues with any of the five golfers in the top range this week on DraftKings, but I have my eyes particularly on Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama. The two time winner of this event projects to be just the fourth most popular golfer in this range, despite coming in with spectacular course history and tremendous recent form.
As mentioned in my brief preview, ball-striking has historically reigned supreme at TPC Scottsdale, with a slew of “bad” or simply mediocre putters finding success. There’s no reason to believe that the course will play any differently this week, setting Matsuyama up to perform well here once again.
Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas expect to pick up big ownership on DraftKings — justifiably so, as both are safe bets to perform well at Waste Management given their strong track record here.
Patrick Cantlay is the one guy I’m probably fading in this range. Coming off a disappointing Sunday finish at Pebble Beach, I’m sort of just anticipating a down week for Cantlay at a course he’s never competed at before.
Viktor Hovland also comes in with limited experience at TPC Scottsdale — a missed cut in one trip a few years ago. The ultra aggressive style of Hovland could set up well this week, allowing him to make a ton of Birdies and potentially crack an optimal DraftKings lineup even if he doesn’t win the event.
All that said, Matsuyama is the guy I feel best about throwing into my DK lineups this week.
9K+ Range
Daniel Berger ($9,200)
With Scottie Scheffler ($9,100) expected to be a massive chalk play in the $9,000+ range, I plan on pivoting to Daniel Berger for $100 more.
There’s obvious concern surround Berger, who withdrew from last week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am citing a back injury. I haven’t heard any updates this week about Berger’s back, but I’m hopeful that the withdraw was precautionary — preferring to rest rather than put his body through three or four long rounds at Pebble.
Many on social media actually picked up on the injury during the last round of the Farmer’s Insurance Open two weeks ago. Berger gutted it out and shot a 71 (-1) at Torrey Pines that day, leading most to believe that the back injury likely wasn’t a major concern.
That said, and assuming Berger is 100% healthy, he projects as a phenomenal play this week at Waste Management. He has four top-11 finishes here since 2015, and comes into this week as one of the best ball-strikers in the field — both recently and over the past year.
If Berger can get the putter to cooperate at TPC Scottsdale, it feels like he should be a shoo-in for a top finish.
8K+ Range
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800)
Ranking 3rd in my stat model this week, Louis Oosthuizen is a tremendous value in the $8,000+ range on DraftKings.
Louis is seemingly getting disrespected due to simply taking a break and not playing any PGA events in several months. Based on projected ownership too, it seems like people may have forgotten about him.
That said, Oosthuizen has multiple wins in his first starts of a new year, along with several other top finishes. As was tweeted out by Justin Ray earlier this week:
As mentioned in the tweet above as well, Oosthuizen has performed quite well in his two trips to TPC Scottsdale. Not super surprising for the South African, who just continues to be an elite ball-striker on the PGA Tour year after year.
I’m in on Louis this week.
7K+ Range
Troy Merritt ($7,000)
Troy Merritt flew up the leaderboard on Sunday at Pebble Beach, firing a 67 (-5) in what could have been an even better looking round if not for a double bogey at the par-3 17th. He still finished in a tie for 4th, and hopefully can carry that positive momentum — and electric ball-striking — over to this week’s WM Phoenix Open.
Merritt’s course history isn’t very encouraging at TPC Scottsdale, though he does have one 24th place finish from a few years ago.
If Merritt can continue the good play and just get through the cut this week though, I believe he’s someone who just tends to grind through the weekend — generally posting top-25 finishes. At $7,000, I’d be very content with Merritt finishing in the top-20 here.
Top of the 7K+ Range
Abe Ancer ($7,900), Billy Horschel ($7,900), Harold Varner III ($7,800), Talor Gooch ($7800), Luke List ($7,700)
I wanted to briefly highlight this collection of golfers in the $7,000+ range on DK, because I think all of them are ones that will pop up in stat models (as they did for mine).
I have absolute no issues with playing any of these guys this week at Waste Management. Ancer and Gooch feel especially underpriced. List is gaining strokes tee-to-green at an elite level right now. Varner is coming off a win in Saudi. And Horschel is doing Horschel things, and generally just makes the cut and plays fine at this event.
In writing-up Merritt as my play in this range, I mainly just wanted to shout-out a golfer I like who is a little off-the-radar and won’t pick up as much ownership.
Onward…
6K+ Range
Matthew NeSmith ($6,600)
Given the overall strength and depth of this field, the $6,000+ range on DK is much better than usual and offers a handful of solid plays.
Guys like Adam Hadwin, Martin Laird, and Charley Hoffman are projecting as solid plays in this range — just to name a few — but I wanted to highlight Matthew NeSmith especially.
NeSmith ranks 15th in my stat model this week, combining good short-term and long-term form — particularly in his approach play, which will be vital this week. Despite playing well at Pebble Beach, he missed the cut on the number thanks to a triple bogey on his second to last hole. The week prior he finished 34th at Torrey Pines, NeSmith’s only other start of 2022.
Last year, in his first trip to TPC Scottsdale, NeSmith led after the first round and continued the solid play all week, finishing 7th. This just seems to be a course well-suited for NeSmith’s game. At just $6,600, NeSmith is a guy I feel quite comfortable throwing into my DK lineups.
