A Past, A Present and a Questionable Future
The (maybe) best fighter on the planet, the most divisive prospect in boxing, and history’s most storied promoter prepare for their biggest night of the year
December 14th draws near. It is not a day that comes with the big fight week feel that accompanied Manny Pacquaio vs Keith Thurman or Errol Spence vs Mikey Garcia. Nor does it evoke the historical nostalgia that fights such as Ruiz-Joshua 2 and Canelo-Kovalev did – or anything even close to that.
But it’s a day that carries implications that will potentially be remembered far beyond it. Several of the most important names of the sport prepare for their day in the light. To resolve the past, present, and future of Top Rank. And their relationship going forward with ESPN.
Enter Teofimo Lopez. The 22 year old from Brooklyn. A blue-chip prospect with highlight reel knockouts and “Fortnite” dance celebrations certainly has both the talent and charisma to take over the sport. And a wise, veteran promotion, known as the gold standard for prospect matchmaking, in his corner.
But he’s impatiently asserted himself into the mix. His brazen promises were dismissed by many. From declaring himself a contender to calling out Vasyl Lomachenko after just turning old enough to legally drink. Against the warnings of many, he’s now willed himself to exactly where he promised he’d be. On the doorsteps of a world title and thereupon an undisputed unification.
Only it didn’t come as smoothly as he expected. Former European champion Edis Tatli jabbed up Teofimo, but once more, an early knockout may have obscured his flaws and prevented a proper learning experience from materialising. However, a title eliminator against Masayoshi Nakatani several months later was a different story.
This lanky Japanese textbook boxer’s 1 – 2’s lit up Lopez’s holes for 12 rounds. Teofimo won widely and certainly wasn’t exposed as a hype-job, but often looked unpolished and hittable. Pundits and writers raised their eyebrows in unison.
After this point, Teofimo forgoing his earned title shot to instead develop as a fighter appeared like an inevitability. Surely the cautious hands of Top Rank wouldn’t allow one of their brightest stars to risk his potential being rushed against knockout artist Richard Commey. Arum and Lopez soon began pouring water and setting the stage for an interim bout or two.
“If we don’t sort these things out, there won’t be a fight between myself and Richard Commey,” revealed Lopez. “I have to regroup within myself. I can beat all these guys, impressively and without any flaws in the ring. But if Teofimo is not happy when he’s in the ring, then those are the problems that – the only person that can beat me, is me.”
And if the Nakatani performance wasn’t concerning enough, Lopez openly floating retirement couldn’t have raised a bigger red flag.
But irrational self-belief was what got Teofimo Lopez to where he was. And in that moment of weakness, Teofimo Lopez decided to double down on that trait.
There’s no telling what damage Lopez might do to himself, mentally or physically, if his gamble goes awry. But maybe this is something Teofimo needs to do to fend off his internal demons and creeping doubt. Despite Bob Arum’s hesitancy, Top Rank had no choice but to acquiesce.
“Teofimo Lopez is so confident, and his father is so confident. It’s like if I was a trainer of horses, sometimes you have a stallion that wants to run as soon as you get them on the track, and you can’t hold him back. Teofimo is like that,” Arum said.
Where Teofimo is hoping to arrive on Saturday, Terence Crawford has been many years ago. Bud’s outclassed credible champions on his way to holding 6 belts across 3-divisions. But an uninspiring welterweight run (in a division full of marquee names aligned with a rival promotion) has prevented Bud from maintaining his pound-for-pound king status, whilst also frustrating Top Rank’s efforts to elevate him into a pay-per-view draw.
But then, Terence Crawford struck lightning in a bottle last year against Jose Benavidez. Despite it being perceived as a mismatch, it wound up drawing a combat sport’s 2019 high of 2.7 million peak viewers. No doubt in part from a lead-in from the Alabama-Missouri game, a Mexican-American opponent, and a dramatic weigh-in fiasco. The circumstances this time around aren’t as fortuitous, but with a lead-in from the Heisman Trophy ceremony, Top Rank’s hope is for Crawford vs. Kavaliauskas to have the highest audience of any boxing card in 2019.
This is a night of introductions for Top Rank. They hope to introduce an audience to the brash Teofimo Lopez in his moment of triumph before he unifies with current pound-for-pound great Vasyl Lomachenko. To give Terence Crawford the popularity he needs to bring networks together for a cross-promotional pay-per-view unification.
To give Michael Conlan a platform to exorcise the demons that have plagued him since his controversial loss to Vladimir Nikitin. To reignite the excitement his future once held as he begins his pursuit of a world title.
And in the center of all this is quinquagenary promoter and 88 year old Bob Arum. Berated by social media as a dinosaur best left to the past, the shrewdness of Arum has proven timeless in navigating these unprecedented waters.
Long after being mocked for exclusively streaming Pacquaio-Vargas and Crawford-Horn, digital streaming has become the norm. Seemingly looking on in from the outside of a booming heavyweight scene, Tyson Fury was shockingly recruited with the help of ESPN’s chequebook. With just days to spare before an expected official announcement, Showtime had their biggest fight of the year scrapped and ESPN/Top Rank now guaranteed a share of the biggest American heavyweight clash since the turn of the millennium.
Fans were quick to criticize Bob Arum’s aversion to tournaments. He nixed sending his 140 and 175 pounders to the WBSS in particular. But while Lou Dibella’s Prograis and Baranchyk threatened lawsuits to deal with delayed payments and fight dates, Jose Ramirez was sent over to DAZN to commit highway robbery. The Mexican-American returned to ESPN with 2 belts, a $4m+ (career-high) purse, and a signature stoppage win against Eddie Hearn’s fool’s gold, Maurice Hooker.
In the light heavyweight division, instead of tying its’ fighters down to a tournament, Top Rank made moves. They signed and allowed the recently crowned WBO titlist Eleider Alvarez to bet on himself and earn $1m guarantees so long as he was a champion. Sergey Kovalev activated his rematch clause, but Main Events needed money to stage the show. Enter Top Rank, who seemingly got options on the winner as Sergey Kovalev suddenly was listed as a Top Rank fighter on their website and immediately slotted in for a February bout versus his conqueror in Texas.
Kovalev beat Alvarez, Alvarez’s contract reduced his purses to $250k minimums, and reports of Kovalev being co-promoted by Top Rank going forward came out. While Main Events kept doing the heavy lifting promoting Kovalev, Top Rank kept dipping their hands into Kovalev’s purses.
A percentage of the lucrative Kovalev-Yarde fight (spearheaded by wealthy Russian investors) was just the beginning. Sergey Kovalev was then sought out by the biggest star in the sport today – Canelo Alvarez. Top Rank worked themselves into getting a percentage of an 8-figure purse (when factoring out the percentages that Top Rank and Main Events took, the purse was only 7-figures for Kovalev) for essentially doing nothing.
And the Russian’s promotional terms were meticulously negotiated. With a win, he would’ve returned to Top Rank. But off a loss, it was now up to DAZN to take care of a recently knocked-out Kovalev’s recovery fights.
Top Rank evidently has not been able to keep up with the aggressive spending of newcomers FOX and DAZN. They know that they’re in the backseat (for the time being at least) and content looking for free wins wherever they can. A traditionally conservative in-house promotion now on occasion seeking out advantageous cross-promotional opportunities to put themselves back into the fold. Minimizing losses and risk to fight another day. For that same reason, they appear to have pivoted internationally.
Top Rank knows better than to think they’re about to make Americans into stars in South Africa, Belfast, Leeds, China, and Leeds. However they are sacrificing potential growth in domestic profile for a venue fee cash injection, just like some who also proclaimed to have stacks of cash to grow American boxing have too.
Such a long-term sacrifice for short-term cash cannot but help raise questions on Top Rank’s plan going forward. Take Shakur Stevenson for example. A young man who is very possibly the best prospect in boxing. A 22 year old world champion and American silver medalist with skills and ring intellect reminiscent of many of the greats. He should for all intents and purposes be the future of Top Rank and so far so good. They’ve already steered him to an easy world title and are now close to securing him a favorable unification match-up.
But to follow a title victory won in the obscurity of Reno, Nevada, what appears as the perfect fight to legitimize Shakur to hardcores and introduce him to casuals is tentatively planned for the UK versus divisional rival Josh Warrington. The furore and passion of that part of the world speaks for itself, however afternoon boxing has historically done poor numbers in the United States and Top Rank surely doesn’t have imminent plans for Shakur as a UK draw, which only makes this proposed move increasingly questionable considering Shakur’s potential domestic marketability.
Top Rank might deflect and claim this is to show off Shakur as a road-warrior, but its doubtful that personal pride dictated negotiations. A seemingly potential PPV star essentially skipping the domestic draw stage is a decision with more gravity than that.
And what to make of all the other Americans being shipped elsewhere? The likes of Jose Ramirez headlining in China? Is Top Rank giving up on growing domestic, homegrown draws at all or for the time being? Or are they in a weaker position where than we realize? One in which this is their only resort? Will December 14th even matter if they’re forced to miss out on the increased profiles of Terence Crawford, Teofimo Lopez, and Michael Conlan by shipping them elsewhere?
Not to mention, fewer allotted regular ESPN dates going forward has raised their own sets of questions. Is Top Rank failing to meet numbers required to keep their regular ESPN dates? Or is ESPN making a concerted effort to strengthen ESPN+ because they’ve been happy with the subscribers that boxing has brought them?
That could just as easily be a good or a bad thing. Top Rank is holding their cards close to their chest. Do they have a card up their sleeve that none of us are seeing? Are they bluffing to hide weakness?
These are strange times full of unprecedented challenges. We can only speculate on whether Top Rank is writing the book on surviving (before one day thriving) in the modern world. Or whether they’re relegating themselves to a secondary slot in the promotional landscape of an ever-changing sport.
At some times desperate, at other times cautious, and at most times cunning, Top Rank now looks forward to December 14th. Even a big win might be short-celebrated if they’re forced to take their biggest names overseas. But Top Rank is renowned for finding ways to make something happen out of nothing. They take one day at a time and prepare to fight when they’re at their strongest. December 14th, February 22nd, and beyond into yet another decade amongst the sport’s premier event planners.
Thanks to Gregory Kudryavtsev