Supercent’s Recipe for Success in a Competitive Market — Part 1
Why is it so difficult to make hit games in 2023?
With the recent growth of short-form social media and the solidification of the gaming market, the hyper-casual game genre is undergoing rapid change. In this article, we’ll share insights into the market trends and Supercent’s publishing strategy that have propelled us to the forefront of game development, creating chart-topping hits that set us apart.
Risks in the Rapidly Changing Mobile Gaming Market
These days, the mobile market is currently in a state of oversupply of apps and content. With a rapid influx of numerous apps and content, people are getting distracted. In 2015, among the top 20 grossing apps in all categories, there was only one non-game app in the list; ‘Line’. A significant shift has occurred since 2015, with non-game apps now constituting 40% of the top 20 grossing apps in 2022.
Mobile games are no longer just competing with other game apps but are now competing in the entire digital content market, including social media apps. However, compared to social media, games are more labor-intensive and require more production efforts, which makes it relatively difficult to respond immediately to market changes. Social media apps, on the other hand, are dominating the app market with their fast content circulation.
TikTok, a New Competitor of Games
TikTok has become the leading revenue generator in 2022, reshaping content consumption through its short-form videos. Its success lies in providing an easy-to-use platform with a constant stream of new content, akin to a slot machine’s reel system.
With each scroll, an unpredictable video appears, providing an addictive experience similar to the reel system of a slot machine. This method of operation aligns with the public’s need for easy, casual content consumption.
The Similar DNA of TikTok and Hyper-casual Games
The data propsed may suggest that the hyper-casual market is challenging due to the competitive presence of TikTok. However, my intention is not to label TikTok or short-form content as direct competitors; rather, we should view them as valuable sources of inspiration and learning. This perspective is crucial in terms of market adaptability.
It is evident that both hyper-casual games and TikTok share common characteristics such as simple controls and rewards for repetitive actions. This similarity has led to a parallel growth trend for both. This shift has positively impacted the growth of the gaming genre, with lighter, shorter content gaining an edge across businesses.
Stickiness of Existing Games: a Market that doesn’t Cycle with New Games
In 2023, only three games — Subway Surfers, Candy Crush Saga, and Ludo King — remain in the Top 20 Mobile App Downloads Worldwide, each nearly a decade old. Why is that? Why are users sticking to these games?
This longevity is attributed to increased competition, changes in the market environment, and significant barriers to user acquisition and monetization. Apple’s discontinuation of IDFA support and the introduction of ATT/SKAN in April 2021 have led to constant CPI increases.
The global economy is also impacting the mobile gaming market. With the rise of interest rates around the world, underperforming companies are spending less on advertising, resulting in lower eCPMs and lower margins. IAP revenue, which enjoyed a special period of growth during the pandemic, has also slowed down post-pandemic, making it harder even for core games to scale up and monetize. For a combination of reasons, fewer and fewer new hypercasual games are reaching the top charts. Yes, it is a tough market for hyper casual new launches. But does that mean hypercasual market is really over?
Is Hypercasual Market Really Dead? : Debunking Myths with Data
Contrary to claims, data suggests that hypercasual gaming is not dead. The market share trend between the so-called golden age of hypercasual gaming(2018–2019) and the present has hardly changed.
Even during the peak years of 2018–2019, considered the golden age of hypercasual gaming, the download proportion of hypercasual games in the overall gaming market was around 24%. Even in the diminished hypercasual market of 2023, the market share rate remains steady at 23%.
As of Q3 2023, the market share of hypercasual games on Android is an undisputed 39%, maintaining its position as the leader. Despite the size of this significant market, many companies are giving up simply because discovering new titles is deemed ‘difficult.’
Market Conditions Make it Difficult to Find New Hits
The reason people say the hypercasual market is challenging is evident. In recent years, discovering innovative ideas for new hypercasual prototypes that can top the rankings has become increasingly difficult.
The chart below illustrates the decline in the number of new hypercasual games entering the top 30 downloads ranking upon release.
Since the peak in 2019, where 21 new games entered the top 30 charts, the numbers have steadily decreased, with only 12 new releases in the top 30 in 2022. This marks a substantial 75% drop from 2022 and 86% decline from the peak of 2019. Notably, in 2023, only one game managed to secure a spot in the Top 30 downloads: Burger Please!
In Part 2, we’ll delve deeper into the strategies employed by Supercent, exploring our unique approach to game development and our recipe for trend-driven success. The journey doesn’t end here; it’s merely the beginning of a fascinating exploration into the thriving world of hyper-casual gaming.
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