Coronavirus Teaches Us About Supply Chains
The novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, is currently sweeping across the globe. Infection rates are doubling every few days and models by epidemiologists indicate most of the world will be infected in just a few months. While the absolute death rate of coronavirus is small compared to other historical pandemics, there is the very real possibility many areas will run out of medical supplies.
Personal protective equipment is already in short supply, and in countries like the US and UK, there aren’t enough ventilators to support the expected number of coronavirus patients.
While many cases of COVID-19 infection will only require isolation, many older patients will have complications. The usual course of these symptomatic COVID patients means arriving at the hospital approximately ten days after the start of the illness.
From there, patients are treated for fever and hydration. Critical patients will require oxygen, and even more critical patients will require respiratory therapy, or a ventilator. At this stage, the patient will have acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The patients either respond to treatment, or are put on antibiotics for secondary infections, and, well, things go south from there.
For all of this, medical professionals are limited by their supplies. N95 masks, gowns, and gloves are in short supply, with the US government invoking the Defense Production Act to increase supply. Ventilators are a huge concern, with the US Department of Health and Human Services expected to deliver up to 2000 more ventilators shortly.
Up to 900,000 people in the United States may need mechanical ventilation during this pandemic. Approximately 200,000 ventilators are currently available, according to the Society of Critical Care Medicine.
In short, the coronavirus pandemic is like nothing ever seen before. Supply chains are threatened, stockpiles are running short, and the only solution to these problems are hackey kludges that might, just might, delay the inevitable.
Build Your Own Mask
Among the most important pieces of equipment for health care professionals are personal protective equipment. Gloves, gowns, and especially face masks are in short supply, and there are reports of some ERs reusing these normally single-use devices.
But there are decades of literature on battlefield medicine, and a wealth of information on impromptu protective gear. In 2006, during an outbreak of H5N1, or ‘bird flu’ several scientists designed a simple respiratory mask constructed from a cotton t-shirt. While not as effective as an N95 mask, some protection is always better than none.
Making Ventilators
Perhaps more important than face masks are ventilators. A significant percentage of coronavirus patients will require respiratory therapy, and there simply aren’t enough ventilators to go around. Hospitals may soon be expected to operate at 120% to 130% of capacity.
In light of this, several doctors have published a method to temporarily support up to four patients from one ventilator. This ‘experiment’ was a success, and could be used during the ‘surge’ of a pandemic.
Even with a sufficient supply of ventilators, there is the issue of replacement parts. A hospital in Chiari, Italy simply ran out of valves for their respirators, and the supplier for these valves couldn’t send replacements in time.
A request for 3D printed replacement valves reached Massimo Temporelli, founder of a digital manufacturing lab. These valves were reverse-engineered, modeled, and 3D printed in a matter of hours, and may have well saved lives.
No good deed goes unpunished, and the manufacturer of these valves may take legal action to prevent the sale of these valves.
The coronavirus pandemic will go down as a premier case study in the field of supply chain management. Everything is there, from inventory control to quite literally nationalizing the production of equipment. It is the most pressing issue facing humanity in several generations and the lessons learned today will be taught for years to come.
