Former BlackRock Director Predicts SEC Will Approve Bitcoin ETF Within ‘3 to 6 Months’
Two former managing directors at BlackRock assert that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States is basically assured at this point.
Steven Schoenfield, a former managing director at BlackRock and current CEO of MarketVector Indexes, shared his prediction that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would likely approve a Bitcoin spot ETF within “three to six months.” Schoenfield made this forecast during a panel discussion on ETFs at CCData’s Digital Asset Summit in London, where he was joined by another former BlackRock director, Martin Bednall, now the CEO of Jacobi Asset Management.
Schoenfield’s estimate was a response to Bednall’s earlier statement that “the SEC will probably approve [all ETF applications] at the same time; I don’t think they want to give anybody a first-mover advantage.” Initially, Schoenfield had anticipated it would take “nine to twelve months” for the industry to secure approval. However, the SEC’s recent decision to delay its verdict on several pending ETF applications marked a departure from its previous delay tactics. According to Schoenfield, this change is a “marginal but significant improvement in the dialogue.” He also noted the Grayscale lawsuit, which the SEC lost, implying that it’s likely they will have to allow the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.
BlackRock, with its vast assets under management (AUM) of $9.42 trillion, is considered the frontrunner to obtain approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF through its pending application. The company boasts a remarkable track record, with a success rate of 575–1 when it comes to getting ETFs approved by the SEC.
In a surprising turn of events, BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink, who once referred to Bitcoin as an “index of money laundering” in 2017, has now expressed a more positive view of cryptocurrency. In the summer of 2023, Fink stated on FOX News that crypto “is digitizing gold in many ways.”
During the panel discussion at CCData’s event, Martin Bednall expressed confidence that BlackRock’s established brand and abundant resources would give it a first-mover advantage in the event of SEC approval for Bitcoin spot ETFs. However, Schoenfield was more cautious in his assessment of BlackRock’s prospects in the crypto space. He believed that despite BlackRock’s efforts to dominate the competition, several other firms, numbering between six to nine, are deeply committed to tradable digital assets. These competitors have submitted their applications and some are more closely integrated into the crypto ecosystem than BlackRock. Schoenfield expected BlackRock to face substantial competition in this arena.
He added that his company had conducted an analysis, concluding that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could lead to an inflow of “$150 to $200 billion” into Bitcoin investment products over three years, potentially doubling or tripling the current AUM in Bitcoin products.
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