J-Bay super 8
The super 8 for the Fantasy Surfer from Surfer Magazine
The last event (Outerknown Fiji) wasn't easy, most of our calculations were beaten on round 3. From our Fiji super 8 only one surfer has passed rd3 reaching semifinals (Joel Parkinson). It was the worst result our perfect picks made so far with only 723 points.
Now we reach J-Bay, an event that has been dominated by Mick Fanning over the last three years.
If you have been following the super 8 publications you are aware of the fact that our algorithm ranks momentum higher. But having a great season does not guarantee a high spot on the super 8. The surfer's performance and past position are also key variables.
Adriano de Souza — $9,250,000
- Event Average Score: 13.11
- Event Winning Percentage: 57.14%
- FS average points: 117
We have a group of five surfers almost tied in the first position of the CT rank. From this group Adriano is the single one that has never lost a rd3 in J-Bay. Although his Average Score in the venue is not high, he has one of the best winning percentages. His fantasy surfer points have never been below the 100 mark. You can see a graph of his numbers through the years.
Matt Wilkinson — $11,000,000
- Event Average Score: 13.5
- Event Winning Percentage: 50%
- FS average points: 103
Wilko is a surfer with a growing trend and sits on first position of our momentum rank. The surfer has been improving his stats over the years. In 2017 he is even better than 2016, you can see the trend of his winning percentage in the graph below.
The surfer has made a semifinal in 2014 at J-Bay and is in great shape to deliver a solid result on the venue.
Owen Wright — $8,750,000
- Event Average Score: 14.71
- Event Winning Percentage: 55.56%
- FS average points: 117
We have records of only 9 heats of the surfer to analyze in J-Bay. Owen has reached the semis in 2014 and has not won rd3 on 2015. He has a solid average heat score on the venue. However things are hard to predict for Owen, since 2012 this is his best season. The surfer has been surprising everyone so far, be sure that it won't be different now.
John John Florence — $11,000,000
- Event Average Score: 14.32
- Event Winning Percentage: 66.67%
- FS average points: 126
The surfer is doing a great career in terms of numbers. He is dominant in the stat rank: best winning percentage and average heat score of the CT. He made the finals last year against Mick and has the third best winning percentage of the venue. JJF has been progressing over the years. His numbers at 2017 are even better than last year. His average heat score has grown over a point and he has 80% winning percentage this year.
Julian Wilson — $8,500,000
- Event Average Score: 14.29
- Event Winning Percentage: 73.33%
- FS average points: 160
Julian has reached a final in 2015 a semi in 2016 and has the second best winning percentage of the venue. The surfer is in a growing pattern through the season, has had his best result of the year in Fiji.
Joel Parkinson — $9,500,000
- Event Average Score: 14.94
- Event Winning Percentage: 53.85%
- FS average points: 114
Joel has a great average heat score in J-Bay. The surfer knows how to build solid scores there. He has also been progressing this season and has only lost on round 3 once so far. Definitely a conservative choice to make on fantasy.
Jordy Smith — $11,250,000
- Event Average Score: 13.87
- Event Winning Percentage: 44.44%
- FS average points: 83
Jordy has just won Balito and comes to J-Bay with full gas. He has reached the quarter finals last year and can deliver even better. It was the first time the surfer broke the 100 fs points mark.
Mick Fanning — $5,250,000
- Event Average Score: 15.34
- Event Winning Percentage: 85%
- FS average points: 225
The king of J-Bay is only on the last position of the super 8 because of his Momentum. Mick has three consecutive finals and has never been below 175 fantasy surfer points on the venue. He owns the best average heat score and winning percentage. The surfer you'll have to chose for your team.
Total Cost: $74,500,00
If everything unfolds as our algorithm has projected we will see 7 of those surfers in the quarterfinals. But for sure, predicting the result of the heats is not easy, one upset on round 3 can change the whole course of the projection. Would you pick those same 8 surfers if you could chose the team with no salary cap?
All the stats from were taken from Fantasy Surfing Tips.
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