Pipe super 8

Best picks for Fantasy Surfer from Surfer Magazine

© WSL / Kirstin

Over this season we have followed the Fantasy Surfer from Surfer Magazine making predictions in a super 8 model. It is a perspective to tune our algorithms regarding the rules and characteristics of the fantasy game. As you may know, we just took off the price variable to adjust our predictions. It's pretty clear, we try to elect the surfers that could achieve the highest amount of points, totally free. We let the algorithm pick any surfer. The performance of such model can be foud here.

John John Florence — $12,500,000

  • Event Average Score: 13.55
  • Event Winning Percentage: 64%
  • FS average points: 142

John John has the second best EAHS of Pipe, only behind Kelly Slater. And the third best HWP. Over the last four appearances the surfer has reached: 5th in 2016; 9th 2015; 5th 2014; 2nd 2013. Those are really strong results, even though JJF has never won pipe, he is amongst the best surfers and is statistically steady at the event.

JJF's winning percentage at Pipe

Gabriel Medina — $12,000,000

  • Event Average Score: 13.59
  • Event Winning Percentage: 68.42%
  • FS average points: 124

Medina has the third best AHS and the best HWP of the event analyzing the last 5 years of stats. Just like JJF, Medina has never won pipe. The results of the surfers in his last four appearances were: 13th in 2016; 2nd in 2015; 2nd in 2014; 13th in 2013. Even though the surfer has been less steady than JJF over the last four years, roller coasting from 2nd place to 13th, there is one fact to analyze. In the years Medina had a chance of winning the season in respect of his result at Pipe, he reached the final. The surfer has needed a motivation to deliver astonishing results at pipe, and this year he has it.

Medina's wining percentage at Pipe

Julian Wilson — $10,000,000

  • Event Average Score: 10.77
  • Event Winning Percentage: 55.56%
  • FS average points: 123

Julian has already won Pipe, that shows he knows how to win heats on the event. However, the surfer lacks steadiness and has varied a lot in the event with good an bad results along the years. Since 2012 his best appearances were in 2013 and 2014 when he respectively reached 5th and 1st, in all other years the surfer has not won rd3.

Jeremy Flores — $4,500,000

  • Event Average Score: 11.83
  • Event Winning Percentage: 50%
  • FS average points: 97

Flores has already won Pipe back on 2010. Over the last years he has also delivered solid results. Last year he finished 5th and on 2015 finished 9th.

Jeremy Flores' winning percentage at Pipe

Mick Fanning — $6,000,000

  • Event Average Score: 11.82
  • Event Winning Percentage: 60%
  • FS average points: 119

Fanning has not participated on Pipe last year. Taking off his rd2 elimination on 2012 the surfer has no bad result. His last three results at the event were two semifinals and one rd5. Advancing to semifinals has been difficult for Fanning this year. He has already reached the QF five times, but has last on all of them.

Joel Parkinson — $7,250,000

  • Event Average Score: 12.19
  • Event Winning Percentage: 61.9%
  • FS average points: 137

Since 2012 Joel has been out of the rd4 of Pipe only once. The surfer advances rd3 with a great consistency, for sure he is a conservative pick to the event. His last results were (from 2016 to 2012) 9th; 9th; 13th; 3rd; 1st.

Although the history of Joel in Pipe is very glorious, over the years the surfer has been delivering lower results. It's a clear descendant pattern.

Joel's average heat score at Pipe over the years

Josh Kerr — $3,500,000

  • Event Average Score: 11.09
  • Event Winning Percentage: 63.34%
  • FS average points: 130

Josh knows how to advance heats at pipe. His average FS points are higher than Medina and JJF. His last three results at the venue are outstanding: two QF and one SF. The single problema with Josh is that at this season he is not delivering his best. The surfer has one of the worst AHS of the year and is only above Stuart Kennedy on HWP. Even though his season and momentum are not favorable, the surfer has had really great results at Pipe.

Kelly Slater — $3,000,000

  • Event Average Score: 14.2
  • Event Winning Percentage: 64%
  • FS average points: 152

Slater is dominant at Pipe. Even though he just recovered from injury, it is just impossible not to pick him at this price. Slater has the best AHS of the event and the third best winning percentage, really close from JJF and Medina. The unique year, since 2012 that he was out of rd4 was on 2014, when Slater lost against Alejo Muniz. On the other years he has finished at least on 5th. The stats of Kelly this year are not compared to his past year, but at $3,000,000 is just impossible not to pick him.

Super 8 total cost: $58,750,000

The picks for Pipe were one the lowest super 8 costs so far. The reason for this is clear, two specialist surfers at this wave, Josh and Kelly, are at a very low price. If you want to check the progress of our algorithm, check our calculation page. You can always simulate possible picks for fantasy surfer at our simulator.